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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

Hold on.. dont get too excited yet. These models have been a disaster this winter showing us a beastly easterly in december which fizzled to nothing.. and now the 12z is showing us a snowy scene for saturday!! i wouldnt trust its saying till thursday at the earliest.. and even then it maybe all in the west.

Yes indeed,feet on the ground an all.However we was talking about that the other day ,i think we lost our easterly from the charts at about 5 days out.Sat is 3/4 days away so maybe we will get lucky this time?
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Suburban Streamer Explorer

Suburban Streamer

Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
Posted

Lovely 12z gfs.

A question for Paul if he's still around......

I usually post charts using my mobile by hitting full version and doing it like I do on pc. However recently after clicking browse and selecting file I want to attach it says page cannot be displayed. It used to work fine, any ideas?using android 4.0.2 btw. Thanks :)

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

still going!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Freezing fog, dodgy:

162_20.gif

Still going Wednesday (with breaks) in the South and East?

180_20.gif

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted

We are having our boiler replaced in week commencing 21 January. Looking at the latest charts I am not sure that this is very good planning.

I suppose that we can at least experience what the house would have been like in Victorian times. Cold, coaldust everywhere, ice on the inside of the windows, men with large sideburns in top hats, rickets, a child or 2 stuck up the chimney..... maybe I am being a bit melodramatic and should just get a couple of electric heaters in. All the poor Victorians could do was rub a couple of street urchins together and see if they ignited.

AS

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Five days is normally a long time in Meteorology but the reality is that things have not altered much from when I did the posts shown below.

http://forum.netweat...3/#entry2462865

and

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2462930

When you look at the Jetstream profile, it is a case of as was forecast, 24 hours from now.

Currently

post-7183-0-87136800-1357662514_thumb.pn

T+24 from now (Wednesday 9th January, 12pm) as shown by my post some five days ago compared against tomorrow's output as suggested right now. That is what you call very good model consistency. good.gif

post-7183-0-06199800-1357662712_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-52322400-1357662515_thumb.pn

Now if you recall the comments shown below, you can see we are clearly into an even better situation than was previously suggested, some five days ago. drinks.gif

  • Into deeper FI at t+216 (Saturday 12th January, 12pm) things are looking very tasty as the Southern arm of NH Jetstream has seemingly taken vacation and the flow may well be from the North or East by this period. For a number of days now, I have been harping on about this being a key date for a general pattern change and I still see no reason why it shouldn't. The real pattern change of course, should the SSW continue as expected, will be at an even later timescale (Mid to Late January).

Here is why I suggest things are even tastier than previously stated. shok.gif

The NH Jetstream and Upper Air profiles from the 3rd January showed this.

post-7183-0-39001100-1357663230_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-93204300-1357663230_thumb.pn

Now by the same time, i.e. at t+96, the Saturday 12th January, 12pm charts for the NH Jetstream and Upper Air profiles show the following. shok.gifshok.gif

post-7183-0-19190900-1357663576_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-01038600-1357663577_thumb.pn

Moving further on, the trend is still very good but the atlantic may be knocking on the door for folks out to the West by Monday 14th January, 12pm. I am not going any further than this timeframe until I have seen the GEFS ensembles and other outputs. good.gif

post-7183-0-69821800-1357663664_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-44991200-1357663665_thumb.pn

Far from any signs of true Spring r018.gif k040.gif a018.gif in spite of the Blackbirds adding to the dawn chorus locally.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

In a Word

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSS!

Not buying into the ECM at all, it performed disgracefully in December, probably the worst I have ever seen that Model Perform in 10 Years on this site!

The thing that worries me most is looking back to the december 2010 spell, the ECM Was the last to buy into that record breaking spell but the METO Was firmly into it from about November 10th If I recall!

Really need the UKMet to come onside, not so worried about the European at present.

rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif - Now what was I saying about 3 hours ago!!!! Game On Ladies and Gents!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Ukmo looks greeeaaaatttttttttt

Slowly, slowly catchy snow monkey!

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Snow looking on the cards for Saturday could me a cracking weekend if it comes off..BUT far to out of reach yet lets hope we see some upgrades over the coming days come Thursday night if it is still there then I think we can start to look at a good snowfall.

What concerns me the most is the ground must be quite warm..We would have to get the cold temps in before the snow settles and if the ground is too wet then it will be even harder for it to stick :/

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

I am not slating but.....the met office has just put an article on ssw on facebook.

Keep up pleaselazy.gif

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

I hope it comes off. I told the folks in my local pub last week that there would likely be a cold and possibly snowy spell in a couple of weeks.cold.gif

If it happens, I can pretend I know what I'm talking about!ph34r.png

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

Just need the ECM on board now and looks game on!!!!

had to pop into the frantic and happy model thread just to see for myself for this weekend event, and a lot of the top model viewing pros (i suppose i can call them that) are saying doesnt matter what the ECM is showing they will ignore it if its not on board with the others. So i suppose if its showing what the others are showing for this weekend then... well we will see!!
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

13011312_0812.gif

more banter..

Damn I am literally 1 mile from the Light Pink at the eastern end of the estuary! Right I am moving West on Friday! rofl.gif

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

13011312_0812.gif

more banter..

can i have another surrey,not keen on that one?
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Snow looking on the cards for Saturday could me a cracking weekend if it comes off..BUT far to out of reach yet lets hope we see some upgrades over the coming days come Thursday night if it is still there then I think we can start to look at a good snowfall.

What concerns me the most is the ground must be quite warm..We would have to get the cold temps in before the snow settles and if the ground is too wet then it will be even harder for it to stick :/

If it's cold enough (and the GFS 12z run is plenty cold enough) it won't take long for your worries to be alleviated.drunk.gif

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

Damn I am literally 1 mile from the Light Pink at the eastern end of the estuary! Right I am moving West on Friday! rofl.gif

ditto !
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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

can i have another surrey,not keen on that one?

uksnowdepth.png13011218_0812.gif

:) there you go. I think the snow are maps are really nothing to go by lol!!

If it's cold enough (and the GFS 12z run is plenty cold enough) it won't take long for your worries to be alleviated.drunk.gif

Its how quick the cold can move in though. Because the weather system is coming in from the Atlantic ( I think) it slams into the cold air and hey presto snow...Where it crashes will depend on who gets snow and who don't

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

uksnowdepth.png13011218_0812.gif

smile.png there you go. I think the snow are maps are really nothing to go by lol!!

Thanks, near enough :)
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daza07 Newbie

daza07

Posted
  • Location: peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: peterborough
Posted

Hey looks good for a cold spell this weekend how do the charts look for peterborough as a milkman need to get my milk to the pesky school kids

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