BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook

 

Summary

 

A wild start, and remaining unsettled.

 

With all eyes turning, understandably, to the approaching severe storm you will be forgiven for forgetting the weather we have been experiencing over the last few days. We have had a real mixed bag, in true autumn style. It has been noticeably mild - much warmer than we would expect for this time of year - peaking at 19.6C at Gravesend in Kent on Friday 25th October. It has also been wet; over 30mm of rain falling over the UK in all bar one day last week. All in all a fairly wet but mild week.

 

Monday 28 October—Sunday 10 November

 

Some like it windy

 

The headline of the coming week is, without doubt, the severe storm expected to hit the British Isles through Sunday evening and into Monday morning. This rapidly deepening area of low pressure is expected to bring heavy rainfall to large swathes of England and Wales along with potentially damaging winds perhaps exceeding 80mph at times. Beyond Monday conditions, although remaining changeable, look like they should calm down from the stormy start to the week. Expect both showers and longer spells of rain during the week mixed with brighter periods in-between frontal systems. Temperatures will drop off slightly from what we have been basking in - closer to what we would expect for this time of year.

 

Monday 4 November—Sunday 17 November

 

Make sure your umbrella is in full working order.

 

Further into the forecast period the main message stays the same; keep your brolly close to hand! At this stage the weather looks like giving us a typical autumnal pattern with plenty of wet and windy weather on the cards. Southern and Western parts look likely to see the worst of the rain with above average rainfall amounts expected here. The only element that is failing to recognise that it is autumn is the temperature which looks set to remain above what we would be expecting for this time of year, frosts during this time will be fairly unlikely.

 

Monday 18 November—Sunday 1 December

 

A little less unsettled in the south

 

For the last few weeks there has been a consistent signal in the extended outlook of the forecast that pressure will gradually rise in southern regions of the UK. This should alleviate the worst of the rain and wind in this area and increasingly push Atlantic frontal systems to northern regions. Temperatures through this period will be a little above the seasonal norm meaning that there is a fairly low risk of overnight frosts during this period.

 

Next week

 

The weather remains very unsettled at the moment, and it looks like this will continue into the new month. But will bonfire night be a damp squib?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

 

[Stuart]

Monday 4 November Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The calm after the storm?

With the clean up after the St Jude's storm almost complete the weather has given us yet more gusty gales through the weekend - this time, primarily affecting south Wales and south west England. The strongest wind St Jude's brought to the UK was a gust of 99mph early Monday morning at the Needles on the Isle of Wight whilst Mumbles in south Wales recorded a gust of 88mph on Saturday afternoon. All in all the UK has seen some very unsettled and extremely dangerous weather during the last week.

 

Monday 4 November—Sunday 17 November Business as usual.

 

The coming week is set to start with an area of low pressure skirting along southern counties; bringing a rather potent area of rain and some fairly strong winds to the vast majority of England and Wales through Sunday night and into Monday morning. Although northern regions of the UK escape the worst of this initial wet and windy weather through the start of the week it's not all good news as the mixture of sunshine and showers spreads countrywide. For the remainder of the week a brisk westerly wind is likely to bring both showers and longer spells of rain - turning wintry over the hills and mountains in Scotland.

 

Monday 11 November—Sunday 24 November More of the same.

 

Autumn remains in full swing with plenty more wet and windy weather on the way further into the forecast. Expect showers mixed with longer spells of rain, however, still seeing some brighter interludes at times. The best of the conditions look like they will be in the south and east of the UK where temperatures will also fair slightly better - around the seasonal norm.

 

Monday 18 November—Sunday 8 December Signs of something more settled in the south.

 

The changeable conditions that have been with us in November thus far look set to carry on as we move to the end of the month. We also continue to see hints in the extended outlook of something a little more settled moving into southern regions of the UK. This implies close to average rainfall totals for the south as opposed to slightly above what would be expected elsewhere in the UK. Although, as with the case with more settled weather towards the back end of the year overnight frosts and fog will become ever more likely.

 

Next week

With December on the horizon will the weather stay wet and windy?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Typically autumnal

 

Last week was one of large temperature contrasts across the Country. For example on Wednesday the 6th of November, daytime temperatures reached a warm 17 Celsius at Exeter airport whilst Balmoral in Aberdeenshire was no higher than 5 Celsius. There were similar contrasts in night time temperatures, down to minus 2 Celsius in the Scottish Highlands while the south coast of England stayed up at a mild 10 degrees. The reason for the contrast in temperatures? Well the air across Scotland had its origin in the Greenland and Iceland area and was cold enough for the showers to fall as snow on the hilltops. By the end of the week, there were significant accumulations of snow above about 800 metres. Across more southern parts of the UK, the air came in from a west of southwesterly direction and the longer sea track resulted in higher temperatures.

 

So where will our air be coming from this week.....

 

Monday 11 November—Sunday 17 November A little bit of everything

 

This will be a week where the weather switches between cooler air coming down from Iceland and occasional bursts of milder air feeding up all the way from the Azores. The week will start off with a band of rain crossing the Country. This rain will continue in the southeast of England into Tuesday morning. It will become milder for a time too before cooler, brighter conditions over Scotland and Northern Ireland extend to all parts during Tuesday. The second half of the week will be characterised by cold and windy weather over the northern half of the UK with showers, falling as snow over the mountains. There will also be gales, possibly severe in the northwest on Wednesday night. It will be a quieter period of weather in the south, mostly dry, breezy at times with a touch of frost at nights and even a few fog patches. Over the weekend, the weather will turn more unsettled with rain and stronger winds in the north, extending southwards across all parts.

 

Monday 18 November—Sunday 24 November Time to find those winter woollies?

 

The unsettled conditions will continue in the north with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by brighter, colder interludes with showers falling as snow on the hills. There are still signs of high pressure hanging on close to southern England, at least during the first part of the week bringing some dry, settled spells with frosts at nights. The wet and windy weather in the north is expected to drift south at times especially later in the week. The colder weather in the north will also edge southwards at times with temperatures expected to be a little below normal for the second half of November.

 

Monday 25 November—Monday 9 December Heading into winter but any wintry weather?

 

It does look as though the weather will stay changeable during the last week of November and as we move into December with no indications at this stage of any settled weather. The rain will be heavy at times, especially over Northern Ireland and western Scotland but some heavier rain will extend across England and Wales at times. There are likely to be spells of colder conditions, especially in the north with snow on high ground.

Next week

 

Chrismas approaches.... will it snow, will it snow, will it snow....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited November 11, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A early taste of winter

 

After a relatively mild if rather wet start to November, the weather is about to take a much colder turn. Our first proper snow of the season is on the cards, and not just over the hills or mountains. Frost will become widespread during this coming week. The signs are that the colder than average conditions that set in this week will last for a while, before a possible return to less cold weather by mid-December.

 

Monday 18 November—Sunday 24 November Turning much colder as Jack Frost takes a bite

 

Monday will be a transition day across the United Kingdom, as much colder air pushes bodily southeastwards. Many places will start on a relatively mild and cloudy note, with some rain lying across northern and western parts of the UK, but as this rain band clears to the southeast, it'll turn much colder. A rash of showers will follow in the much brighter but colder air behind the rain band, and these showers will turn wintry, initially over high ground but increasingly to low levels through the day. A widespread overnight frost will develop inland on Monday night, leading to an icy start to Tuesday.

Many places will actually have a decent day on Tuesday, but a cold, blustery northwestertly wind will help feed wintry showers onto coasts exposed to that biting wind, and a few showers will penetrate well inland, for instance into the Midlands. The biggest difference will be the temperatures, It's goodbye 9s and 10s and hello 4s and 5s, which is about 5 degrees below average for mid to late November.

 

On Wednesday, an area of rain, with some snow on both the leading edge and on the rear edge, will sweep southeastwards across all parts of the UK during the day. Sunny spells and wintry showers will follow the rain. It will be a windy day, with coastal gales in the north and west, making it feel particularly chilly.

Many parts of the UK will eventually lose the biting wind and the wintry showers by the end of this coming week, thanks to high pressure building in from the west. The easing wind will lead to sharp overnight frosts and cold days though, and also some freezing fog patches. The southeast is likely to be the exception to this, as a stiff northeasterly breeze will keep feeding in wintry showers here.

 

Monday 25 November—Sunday 1 December Staying cold, but generally more settled

 

As we move towards the end of November, it looks like high pressure will control the weather across much of the UK, but particularly the northwestern half of the UK, with southeastern parts remaining closer to the influence of low pressure sitting over the continent.

Northern and western parts of the UK will experience more fine weather, but it will remain cold, especially overnight, with sharp frosts and some freezing fog patches, which will be slow to clear.

 

Towards the southeast, the weather is likely to be somewhat more unsettled, with a continuing threat of wintry showers, some of these heavy near to coasts. A brisk

northeasterly breeze will maintain the cold feel here too, but frost should be more patchy and less severe.

 

Monday 2 December—Sunday 15 December A role reversal in the weather is on the cards

 

It looks like the new month, and meteorological season, will bring about a subtle change in the UK's weather. The high pressure that will dominate the second half of November looks like it will slip southwards, allowing more unsettled but also less cold weather to develop across the north of the UK, as low pressure takes hold here.

Further south, we'll lose the biting east to northeasterly breeze and the wintry shower threat, but as the weather quietens down here, so sharp overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches will be likely.

 

Towards the middle of December, even the south may begin to turn less cold, as the high potentially starts to lose its grip on the UK.

 

Next week

It looks like cold weather is here for a while, as winter takes an early stance, and there's a continuing threat of wintry showers towards the southeast. Will this continue as we head towards December?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited November 18, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A month of two halves

 

With November drawing to a close it is clear that this transition month can be split into two halves. The first half has been dominated by wet and windy conditions and very few dry days; in contrast the second half has, so far, been controlled by high pressure and settled conditions, with most days being dry. This has the knock-on effect that frost has gone from initially being fairly uncommon to being a nightly event. This past week has also seen the transition into much colder conditions pushing down from the north. This has not only sent thermometers plummeting down to -8 overnight in Highland Scotland on Friday 22nd November, but also some snow showers elsewhere.

 

Monday 25 November—Sunday 1 December High pressure firmly in charge

 

November looks set to bow out in less than dramatic style with high pressure in charge of the conditions over the vast majority of the UK. The weather over the coming week looks set to stay mostly dry, albeit rather cloudy. This high pressure is associated with some lower temperatures than would ordinarily be expected at this time of year, meaning that frosts will become part of the nightly routine over the coming week. There may be a slight reprieve in the low temperatures midweek as some milder air penetrates the UK. However, it doesn't look likely that this will stick around with the mercury expected to dip back down by the end of the week.

 

Monday 2 December—Sunday 8 December All change

 

It currently looks like through the start of December the high pressure area that has been sitting over western parts of the UK will slowly drift to the southwest away from the UK giving us a gradual return to more unsettled conditions. Wetter and windier conditions will be seen in northern parts of the UK first and these will gradually migrate their way south during the course of the week, however, there is some uncertainty currently as to how long this migration will take.

 

Monday 9 December—Sunday 15 December A little bit of everything

 

As we move through December the weather looks set to give us a healthy mix of conditions. Spells of rain will be interspersed with brighter and drier periods. Temperatures at, or slightly below, the seasonal norm, therefore frosts will be a risk by night alongside some wintry showers over Scottish high ground.

 

Next week

 

With November drawing to a close what will the monthly statistics reveal? And, any chance of a White Christmas?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited November 25, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Winter arrives!

 

This weekend saw November draw to a close and in most aspects, weather conditions were fairly typical for the end of autumn. After a rather mild start with generally wet and windy weather, the second half of November was in fact dominated by high pressure and consequently frosty nights and very little rain. The contrasting halves of the month resulted in the overall temperatures being a touch below average for most parts of the UK. Despite the wet and windy start to the month though, many areas ended up being slightly on the dry side when compared to a typical November. One interesting feature of November's weather was that, for Scotland, it turned out to be one of the sunniestNovembers since records began in 1929.Sunday not only heralded the start of December, but also the beginning of the meteorological winter. Although frost was fairly widespread across eastern and southern parts first thing on Sunday, the question on the minds of many people is; 'When will we get the first real taste of winter here in the UK?'. Well, this week will begin on a largely settled note, but as we head towards the end of the week we can expect a shift, albeit rather temporary, towards some weather more worthy of the wintry label. Read on to find out the details.....

 

Monday 2 December—Sunday 8 December A quiet start giving way to a cold, ferocious end!

 

High pressure will be firmly in control of weather conditions across most of the UK through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Any patchy early morning mist, fog and frost, mainly across southern and eastern areas, should gradually lift, leading into mainly dry days with plenty of cloud.Across northern Scotland though, a weak weather front and strong winds will gradually sink in from the north through the latter part of Monday and into Tuesday. Eventually this weather front will make it as far south as Northern Ireland and northern England by late Tuesday, very much as a weakening feature.On Wednesday, wintry showers will feature across the north of Scotland that will bring some snow accumulations to higher ground. Central areas of the UK will probably fair best with dry and bright conditions. Across the south, expect some cloud and patchy light rain from the weak weather front.Thursday is the day when things will start to change! Winds will gradually strengthen and veer around to the north, dragging in cold air of Arctic origin. A band of rain that will turn sleety over northern hills will sweep from north to south, clearing into the English Channel on Thursday evening. In the wake of the rain band, central areas will be dry and clear. Coastal parts will see wintry showers that will turn to snow in places. Severe gales will also affect many coastal regions through Thursday. High tides along the North Sea coast will also introduce the risk of some coastal flooding.

 

Friday will be a bitterly cold day, but winds will start to ease, although further coastal flooding in the east is possible, along with some further snow showers.Gradually, through the weekend, pressure will start to build again from the west, allowing for the gradual return of some more settled weather conditions, with a generally milder feel.

 

Monday 9 December—Sunday 15 December An end to the brief cold spell.

After a very cold and unsettled end to the previous week, and the gradual transition back to more settled weather through the subsequent weekend, this period should see a return of cloudier, milder conditions that are expected to slowly filter in from the northwest, although many southeastern areas may remain cold with some clear spells, at least for the start of the week. As the week draws on, a northwest/southeast divide is expected to become established across the UK, with the more unsettled, but often milder weather tending to be in the northwest, and the best of the drier weather towards the south and east of the UK.

 

Monday 16 December—Sunday 29 December A Northwest/Southeast Split to End the Year?

 

As we approach the end of the year, the prospects of a white Christmas become an area of interest for many people across the UK. As is always the case with medium to long range forecasting, specific details in the precise weather conditions for different parts of the UK become less attainable the further into the future we look. However, there is a degree of confidence in the general northwest/southeast spilt scenario being maintained across the UK throughout much of the last two weeks of December. At this stage it is thought that northwestern parts of the UK will tend to stay on the unsettled side, with relatively frequent spells of rain and periods of strong winds. Further to the south and east, all current indications suggest that weather conditions will tend to be fairly dry with lighter winds. Temperatures are currently expected to be close to average values for the time of year. At present it is too early to give a definitive forecast of any white Christmas prospects, but as always, we will continue to keep you updated on the forecast as we progress towards the big day.

 

Next week

What kind of weather will the start of 2014 have in store for the UK?

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Dreaming of a white Christmas?

 

December and the start of meteorological winter brought with it some very unsettled weather across much of the British Isles. A major winter storm brought widespread disruption to Scotland and both the north and east of England. Wind gusts reached 80 to 90 mph across Highland Scotland, the Western Isles and Central Belt; 70 to 80 mph more widely across Scotland and 60 to 70 mph across northern England. Scotland's mountain summits saw gusts well in excess of 115 mph.

It wasn't just the wind that caused problems. This deep low pressure system caused the worst tidal surge in 60 years. This coincided with high tides and strong winds to produce widespread coastal flooding along the east coast of England and parts of northern Wales.

The provisional statistics for autumn show that, despite including the St. Jude's Storm, on the whole the season was fairly unremarkable. Temperatures for the season were roughly average with a notably mild October being balanced by a chilly November. Rainfall showed a north-south divide as Scotland and Northern Ireland experienced a rather dry autumn whereas much of southern England had a wetter than average season. The amount of sunshine was above average in many northern and eastern areas but for the UK as a whole, this was, provisionally, the dullest autumn since 2001.

With the weather making headlines at the start of December, will we see further disruptive storms as we approach the New Year? Read on for the details...

 

Monday 9 December—Sunday 15 December Mild and settled for the Christmas shopping.

 

An area of high pressure turns the wind southerly and brings generally mild and settled conditions for most areas this week.

A weather front, sitting across northern and western Scotland, will bring some rain on Monday morning but further south, it will remain dry with just the odd shower for western areas. It will be mild across much of the country, particularly in the east where there will be plenty of sunshine. Winds will begin to increase through the evening approaching gale force in northwest Scotland.

 

Into Tuesday it will be mild, cloudy and a touch breezy for most, although northwest Scotland will have rain at times coupled with gale force winds, particularly around any exposed coasts. Moving into midweek, the winds will ease and we should see the sun coming out, especially across England, Wales and eastern Scotland, so a very pleasant feel to the conditions. Clearer skies could lead to a touch of overnight frost in the south but it should remain mild by day. This isn't set to last though as winds begin to increase again through Thursday and Friday as a band of rain slowly moves across the whole UK from the west.

As the weekend approaches we will see high pressure start to slide away into Europe allowing for more unsettled conditions, particularly across the north and west, although the south and east is likely to remain dry.

 

Monday 16 December—Sunday 22 December Dipping temperatures in the run up to the holidays

 

The southeast may remain dry with some sunshine and light winds throughout the week, but further north and west, it will be wet with strong winds to start the week. Temperatures are likely to dip slightly to around normal for this time of year, perhaps slightly below average at times in the northwest. The more benign conditions in the southeast may come as a double-edged sword as temperatures here could be rather cold at times with some overnight frost or fog developing. Where any fog persists during the day it will feel cold.

 

Monday 23 December—Sunday 5 January Naughty or nice? A bit of both on the cards...

 

The weather through the festive season and into the New Year looks set to remain unsettled, especially in the north and northwest of the British Isles. It looks likely that these unsettled conditions will slowly push further south and east so the whole country is likely to have some changeable weather for a time. Temperatures will probably stay around normal for the time of year, maybe even slightly above average across the northwest making a white Christmas look unlikely at this stage. It's still too early to give a definitive white Christmas forecast though and we will keep you updated as we move through December.

Next week

What does the weather in 2014 have in store?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited December 9, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Astronomical winter beckons; does wintry weather?

 

The past week has given us weather forecasters plenty to talk about, with deep Atlantic depressions bringing gales across the country yet again, and air so mild that a few weather stations in Scotland set new December temperature records. Some chillier air resided over southeastern areas, with fog becoming problematic at times. But as the winter solstice approaches on Saturday, there hasn't really been a lot of significantly cold weather of which to speak. Will there be any snow on the Christmas horizon?

The new week dawns following a night of temperature contrasts, with very mild air for the time of year over southern areas this time, while the far north was somewhat colder with blustery wintry showers. The week ahead remains changeable, offering further mild weather at times, but again accompanied by the threat of gales, especially around midweek.

 

 

Monday 16 December—Sunday 22 December Staying changeable, often windy, sometimes wet

 

We start the new week with Sunday's rain becoming confined on Monday to the southeast and far south of England. However this rain will remain persistent and will be locally heavy at times. It will be breezy in the north with blustery showers, these wintry over high ground. Central areas will turn dry and bright with winds easing.

Tuesday could be one of the best days of the week for many. Rain lingering in the southeast at first should be all but gone by early afternoon, and then aside from a few showers in the far northwest it will be a dry day with spells of sunshine.

The respite won't last however, and on Wednesday it will turn wet and windy again with widespread gales. These will be severe in northwestern areas overnight. On Thursday it will be brighter, but colder and remaining windy with squally wintry showers. Friday may offer another brief respite for some, with some sunshine as winds ease and showers become confined to the far north. However, milder, wet and windy weather will reach the west during Friday afternoon, pushing further eastwards through the rest of the day.

As we head into the final weekend before Christmas, and into astronomical winter from Saturday, it is likely to remain unsettled, windy and rather mild across much of the UK, with showers or longer spells of rain and a continuing risk of severe gales, mainly affecting parts of the north and west.

 

Monday 23 December—Sunday 29 December I may have to keep dreaming of a white Christmas!

 

As we enter Christmas week and make dashes to the shops for the last-minute gifts, the weather will hold no surprises as conditions look set to continue mild and unsettled. As with the preceding week, further spells of wet and windy weather are expected with some heavy rain at times. Northern and western areas are most likely to see the wettest and windiest weather.

Any colder interludes between spells of wet and windy weather are more likely towards the end of the week, with showers possibly turning wintry but most likely only over high ground in the north.

So does that mean a white Christmas? At the time of writing, the balance of probabilities suggests that the pressure pattern on Christmas Day will be a deep low between Scotland and Iceland, causing mild southwesterlies to affect the country. So at the moment, it looks as though those of us who want a white Christmas might have to keep dreaming for another year...

 

Monday 30 December—Sunday 12 January New year, new weather pattern?

 

As we say goodbye to 2013 and welcome in 2014, it doesn't look as though we'll be seeing the back of the wet and windy weather just yet.

Conditions look likely to remain rather unsettled, especially towards the north and northwest of the country, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions towards the south and southeast. There is also the chance of some colder and showery spells in the north and west at times.

Otherwise, temperatures will probably stay around normal across the United Kingdom generally, although there could be some colder nights in the south and east with a risk of

frost and fog in places.

 

Next week

Will the jet stream fancy a change and move southwards to let in colder weather? Or will it keep roaring across the Atlantic and sending deep lows our way?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited December 16, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook Summary

A year ends, but the wild weather continuesDecember will be roaring to a close soon, and through the Christmas week we'll see a continuation of the extremely unsettled theme that has flavoured this final month of 2013. An exceptionally deep depression, with central pressure set to drop as low as 927 millibars, is set to bring stormy conditions to the UK in the run-up to Christmas. The jet stream, which is developing and driving this system towards us, is itself of remarkable strength; the upper-level winds in the core of the jet stream exceeded 280mph over the Atlantic during Sunday. The atmosphere has certainly been full of energy, and that does not look set to change any time soon.Monday 23 December—Sunday 29 December I'm dreaming of a quieter ChristmasThe week begins with a raft of weather warnings in force, threatening to disrupt Christmas travel plans. An exceptionally deep area of low pressure passing to the north of the UK on Monday will bring heavy rain and gales for many areas, and snow for higher routes in Scotland. The wettest and windiest weather will be focussed on southern parts of the country, although poor travelling conditions are likely for many areas. The more persistent rain clears on Tuesday to leave less mild and rather showery conditions, with severe gales continuing in northwestern parts. Some of the showers could fall as sleet or snow over higher ground in northern areas. On Christmas Day, gales in the north will eventually ease leaving a generally quieter day with spells of sunshine, although there will still be some showers around. These will be a wintry mix of rain, hail and sleet, and maybe even some snow. The snow showers will mainly be focused on high ground in the north, but the risk does extend elsewhere; a "bookies' White Christmas" could not be ruled out entirely! Boxing Day looks like the perfect day to walk off the Christmas dinner, with lighter winds and showers easing away. The respite does not last long however, as yet more rain will arrive in the early hours of Friday, preceded by a spell of snow on northern hills. Winds will strengthen once again, perhaps reaching gale or severe gale at times. The gales, along with rain followed by blustery showers, will again lead to tricky travelling conditions on Friday. The unsettled weather looks likely to continue through into the weekend too, with showers or longer spells of rain and windy conditions.Monday 30 December—Sunday 5 JanuaryNew Year, old weather As we say goodbye to 2013 and welcome in 2014, it doesn't look as though we'll be seeing the back of the wet and windy weather just yet, with conditions looking likely to remain rather unsettled. Incursions of colder air with sunshine and showers, wintry over higher ground and possibly to lower levels in the north, will be interspersed with milder but wetter weather with spells of heavy rain and strong winds. It is possible however that there may be more in the way of drier and brighter periods in between the spells of wet and windy weather, especially towards the southeast of the country.Monday 6 January—Sunday 19 JanuaryA slow waltz towards quieter conditions? Current indications are that the very unsettled weather is expected to dominate well into the New Year. Spells of mild, wet and windy weather are likely to alternate with brighter, colder, showery periods, though the risk of any significant snow or prolonged wintry weather looks low except for over high ground in the north. Further into January, the most probable scenario is for the unsettled conditions to ease somewhat, with a greater chance of drier weather especially in southern areas. At the same time, frost becomes a little more likely.Next weekWill our weather forecasters be able to catch a break at the end of January?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

So long 2013!

 

Despite December drawing to a close the weather has continued with an unpleasant flavour that is set to last all the way into the New Year. During the past week we have seen it all; most notably torrential rain and gale force winds that caused severe disruption with flooding and power outages. During this time Stornoway recorded a pressure of 935.4hPa associated with the exceptionally deep low pressure system - this is the lowest recorded since December 1886, 127 years!

 

Monday 30 December—Sunday 5 January More wet and windy weather on the way.

 

The week begins with yet more weather warnings in force, potentially causing further disruption over the holiday period. Monday starts initially on a wet note with strong to gale force winds, however, conditions should quickly improve with plenty of sunny spells eventually coming through. Tuesday has a very similar feel with another period of rain for all sandwiched between spells of brighter and drier weather. Wednesday is looking at this stage to be the worst day of the week with more widespread rain and gales developing; early warnings have already been issued for this weather system - keep up to date with all the warnings on the BBC Weather website. Towards the latter half of next week it does look like the procession of low pressure systems will slow down giving some quieter weather, however, outbreaks of rain will continue to threaten most parts.

 

Monday 6 January—Sunday 12 January More of the same.

 

The unsettled theme to the weather doesn't seem likely to loosen its grip over the UK as we look further into January. Spells of wet and windy weather will be interspersed with sunshine and showers. Though some of these showers could turn wintry over high ground, the likelihood of significant snow or a prolonged wintry period looks unlikely.

 

Monday 13 January—Sunday 26 January Will the weather ever ease up?

 

For the end of January it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue across the UK. However, it does look like the amount of low pressure systems bringing wet and windy weather will decrease with the chances of some drier brighter weather increasing. With temperatures expected to be hovering around what we would expect for this time of year it doesn't look good for those wanting to see some snow.

 

Next week

 

Looking ahead to February - will the weather calm down?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited December 30, 2013 by Stuart

[johnholmes]

As ever I have no idea how the BBC monthly outlook, prepared by Met forecast staff, can be at variance with the 16-30 day outlook. I thought this had been overcome some time ago but obviously not. Please read their 16-30 day outlook to see what I mean.

[Stuart]

Monday 6 January Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

New year, same old weather?

 

The current spell of weather, during which we have been seeing deep low after deep low bring gales and heavy rain to our shores, has been exceptional. Taken in isolation, most of the weather systems haven't been particularly unusual for the time of year - it is winter, after all - although the continued succession of depressions IS unusual.

In fact, December 2013 turned out to be the stormiest December in the Met Office's records, which began in 1969. It was also one of the windiest calendar months for the UK since January 1993.

 

January 2014 has thus far continued that trend, and the state of some of the country's coasts and rivers are testament to that. Finally, though, there are signs that through this week it might start turning a bit less stormy.

 

Monday 6 January—Sunday 12 January A slow waltz towards less disturbed conditions

Monday begins with most parts of the UK seeing sunshine and blustery showers, these most frequent in the west where there is a risk of hail and thunder. It will be windy, with gales in places. The low pressure to the west of the UK has been generating exceptional swells, and combined with coastal gales there is a risk at high tide of further impacts from big waves around some coasts in the west and south. That low will dominate our weather for at least the first couple of days this week.

The rest of the week then remains unsettled but turning less stormy than of late. Coastal gales will gradually moderate into Wednesday, and then the general theme will be sunny spells and showers. The heaviest showers will be in northern and western areas. Something that will need watching however, bearing in mind recent flooding, will be the risk of some more persistent rain moving northwards from France into southern parts on Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a waving weather front.

Generally temperatures will be around average in the north and remaining on the mild side in the south. On Thursday night however, under a ridge of high pressure - something we've not seen very often recently - frost is possible in southern parts.

 

On Friday a weakening front crosses southeastwards across the UK, bringing a diminishing amount of rain, then as that clears the weekend could see temperatures in the south also falling back to something around normal for the time of year. Through the weekend however, the broadly showery theme continues.

 

Monday 13 January—Sunday 19 January Low pressure continues to dominate

 

With low pressure remaining to the northwest of the UK, the unsettled theme looks set to continue into the following week. Whilst this means showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, it does not look like a return to the disturbed conditions of late.

Showery rain and occasional gales are most likely in the north and west, whilst in the south and east the air pressure will be a little higher, bringing drier, brighter weather here. Later in the week it will remain mainly unsettled, with the north and west generally wettest, and the east and southeast seeing the best of drier and brighter weather and more frequent colder spells.

 

Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first, but turning colder later with most areas seeing an increasing risk of frost and ice.

 

Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 February Staying unsettled... at first

 

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.

However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

 

Next week

As we arrive in February will it be new month, new weather this time?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 6, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Low pressure remains in charge

 

Last week we discussed that during the weeks ahead the unsettled theme would continue, with generally average temperatures and only brief colder incursions.

The warming effect of the Atlantic on any cold air coming out of North America should never be underestimated even considering the recent cold snap in North America, as a result this week will remain unsettled but not particularly cold.

There will be some snow this week, but mainly over hills over the northern half of the country, much as one would expect during winter. Any precipitation, whether solid or liquid, is not welcome where flooding remains a threat, and there will be periods of rain in the coming week which will be closely monitored.

 

Monday 13 January—Sunday 19 January Low pressure continues to dominate

 

Monday starts with the overnight rain dragging its heels over Shetland; it should be clear of here by the afternoon but it will remain windy with gales likely. Elsewhere, following a cold and in places frosty and icy start, there will be sunny spells and showers. The best of the sunshine will be in eastern areas, where it could stay dry all day. Temperatures will be around the January average.

 

On Monday night most of the showers will clear away, to leave it cold and frosty with some ice possible once again. This will likely be the last of the colder nights for the

 

remainder of the week.

A few showers will remain into Tuesday around windward coasts. Otherwise Tuesday will start cold and bright, and for many it will be a fine day. The next frontal system will spread cloud and rain across Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon, then over the rest of the UK during the evening.

This rain will clear most areas on Wednesday, although there is a risk that the front responsible could stall over southern parts of England. If this transpires, it would undoubtedly increase the risk of further flooding.

Elsewhere on Wednesday and through the rest of the week the unsettled theme continues, often windy with a risk of coastal gales and temperatures around the seasonal average. The showers will sometimes be heavy and blustery, again especially around coasts. Hill snow is possible in the north with these showers. There will be some sunshine in between the showers too, particularly in more eastern parts.

 

Monday 20 January—Sunday 26 January Staying unsettled

 

With low pressure remaining to the west or northwest of the UK, the unsettled theme looks set to continue at first. As the week progresses, indications are that the more unsettled conditions will become confined to the north whilst in the south pressure will rise a little bringing drier, brighter weather for some.

Temperatures are likely to be near normal for most, but with an increasing risk of cold nights returning especially if high pressure builds across southern parts.

 

Monday 27 January—Sunday 9 February A long overdue dry spell?

 

The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent bouts of unsettled weather, leaving southern and eastern regions tending to see the most prolonged spells of drier and brighter conditions.

This would certainly be welcome where groundwater is at a maximum; it is too early to tell how prolonged any drier spell would be. It is still possible that a settled period could be interrupted by passing weather systems.

With more settled conditions some periods of colder weather are likely, but overall the indications are currently that temperatures may well remain near normal.

 

Next week

 

Is there any sign of significant snow?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 13, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

No real sign of winter so far. Will this change?

 

Having already reached the middle of winter - at least from a meteorological point of view - it would be fair to say that we haven't really seen much winter weather yet; the month of December was the fourth warmest across the UK, since 1910. The first half of January has seen higher than average temperatures too.

Is this going to change in the next few weeks? That question is keeping forecasters on thier toes at the moment.

Some of the longer range forecast models seem to keep dropping hints at colder weather on the horizon but then a couple of days later the same models change to something altogether milder. Over the next couple of weeks you can be sure that we'll be keeping our eyes peeled for signs of winter.

 

Monday 20 January—Sunday 26 January Feeling cooler with some frost and fog

 

During the early part of this week many of us will experience two traditonal winter staples that, so far, have been notable in their absence this winter; frost and fog.

So far the succession of storms have kept poor visibility at bay and have meant that, for most, scraping your windscreen in the morning has been more the exception than the rule. However, a more settled spell of weather through Monday and Tuesday. By day this should bring some bright interludes. By night though it will bring frost and fog sharply into focus.

After a brief interlude of wetter weather midweek, we then return to cooler conditions towards the end of the week.

As we head towards the weekend, suggestions are that another frontal system will move in from the Atlantic. The crucial question though is "how cold will the air be that it is running into?"

If a pool of cold air has built up over the southern half of the UK then we could see some snow. If, on the other hand, everything is moving quicker and being stirred around more, we're probably talking more about a bit of sleet before some rain. As ever, timimg will be crucial.

By the end of the weekend, whether we've had snow or rain, it seems that a return to generally milder, wet and windy conditions is on the cards.

 

Monday 27 January—Sunday 2 February The end of January - any sign of winter yet?

 

is ever, once we look at the second week we are looking more at trends than specific detail. The trend for this week seems to be one for low pressure systems to continue

feeding in from the Atlantic. These are most likely to affect the north and west of the UK with higher pressure across the south and east holding these frontal bands at bay.

This set-up would bring some dry and bright spells to southern parts, though the price we pay for this would be cold, frosty nights and patches of fog. Wetter and windier conditions will persist further north with perhaps some snow on top of hills and mountains in northern England and Scotland.

If we do see this pattern it will be very interesting to see the end of month statistics. With temperatures in December coming in above average, will January follow suit?

 

Monday 3 February—Sunday 16 February Still on the hunt for firm indications

 

Once again, the majority of longer range models tend to favour sticking with the pattern where the north and west see bands of rain at times, while the south and east favour drier, brighter but cool conditions.

For southern counties of England any spells of drier weather would almost certainly be welcome, given the current high groundwater levels. However, the continual track of weather systems across the northern half of the UK could lead to above average rainfall for northern Scotland.

Whether or not some of the computer projections continue to throw the odd idea of a colder snap into the mix remains to be seen. It's certainly not something that we should rule out - it is winter after all. One thing is for certain, it's something that we'll all be keeping a close eye on at the BBC Weather Centre.

 

Next week

 

Will we still be hunting for signs of winter? An interesting time in forecasting, for sure.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/22737-bbc-weather-monthly-outlook/page-29

Edited January 20, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Snow! At last! But not for long...

 

Snow lovers might want to hang fire before getting too excited about the coming week's weather, since widespread outbreaks of snowmen-building are not looking very likely. Having said that, this coming week does look likely to bring us the coldest spell of winter so far with, yes, the possibility of some snow at low levels.

An easterly wind - the Beast from the East, if you will - sets up for Thursday, bringing mostly light wintry showers to eastern and some central areas. At the time of writing, however, it looks on balance as though the beast will be very quickly tamed and that by the weekend we will have returned to a less cold westerly regime once more.

 

Monday 27 January—Sunday 2 February Feeling cold, especially by Thursday

 

A low pressure system will move slowly southwards across the UK during the first half of the week. This will hold us in a rather unsettled and windy regime into Wednesday, with showers of rain and hail to low levels and snow for hills in the north. Heavier showers will have a risk of thunder, and gales will be possible around coasts in the west and north. With the cloudy and windy theme it will feel rather cold, even if thermometers suggest temperatures are about average.

As the low pulls away southwards, finally, on Wednesday night, the easterly wind sets up in its wake. This really pulls in the cold air, which will show on the thermometers, as well as an increased risk of the white stuff. Thursday will be rather cloudy, especially in eastern and central parts, with a risk of wintry showers. Snow is likely for high ground,

although significant accumulations look unlikely at present with most of the showers remaining light. Scotland may pick up the odd heavier snow shower at times, but anything falling at low levels on the coast will mainly be a sleety wintry mix.

The best of any sunshine will be in sheltered western areas, where it may feel a little less biting than under the cold, grey skies further to the east.

The risk of wintry showers continues over eastern and southeastern parts at first on Friday. However an Atlantic front with rain and hill snow will spread eastwards. This scenario of a change back to westerlies looks the most likely at present, although will be subject to some timing changes. The rain may be preceded by snow at some lower levels before melting away. Gales will again be likely, especially in the northwest where they may be severe.

For the weekend, clearer conditions with wintry showers should spread in from the west. Temperatures will be generally colder than normal with a risk of overnight frost and ice, despite a slight recovery from the low maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

 

Monday 3 February—Sunday 9 February A return to business as usual

 

The current trends from the computer models suggest that the brief wobble at the end of January won't become the norm as we head deeper into the new month. A lot will hang on how the previous week's switch from easterly back to westerly evolves, but it does look like a return to business as usual for the first full week of February.

Drier and brighter conditions are likely for a time on Monday before further spells of wet and often windy weather moves in from the southwest for Tuesday. Thereafter further wet and windy spells are likely, especially in western areas as low pressure tends to position to the west of Ireland or to the south of Iceland. This will help temperatures to recover through the week, with a reduced risk of snow, frost and ice.

 

Monday 10 February—Sunday 23 March February to continue this winter's trend?

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the middle of the month. The most likely scenario currently suggested for this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather, with low pressure near Iceland.

Meanwhile southern and eastern regions would tend to see the longer spells of drier and brighter weather, with pressure higher here. Some colder periods are possible, particularly between the weather systems. But in general, temperatures close to the seasonal average are most likely. Thus, at present, it looks as though most of February will continue the theme of this winter as a whole: generally unsettled, often windy and wet.

 

Next week

As February - and meteorological winter - draws to a close, will we see any significant snow at low levels?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 27, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

It's like Groundhog Day, all over again

 

After one of the wettest Januarys ever recorded, goodness knows the UK could do with a prolonged dry period and a bit of a wringing out. Sadly, that does not look likely within this monthly outlook. Instead the recent weather pattern looks set to continue and once more we are facing a month ahead that seems to offer little prospect of significant snow but plenty more wet and windy weather.

 

Monday 3 February—Sunday 9 February Rain and gales with a side order of rain and gales

 

Several areas of low pressure will affect the UK through the week bringing a prolonged spell of very unsettled and stormy weather. By and large, temperatures will be near

normal or slightly above. There will be showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, accompanied by gale or severe gale force winds. Monday is already proving to be no exception, with rain and gales in western areas. Through Tuesday night into Wednesday there will be further gales affecting a wider part of the UK, with overnight rain followed by frequent heavy showers during Wednesday.

Thursday offers a quieter day for most, not without some showers scattered around but with winds easing off and more in the way of sunshine between any showers. It will be colder in the north on Thursday night, with a risk of frost and ice where skies clear. This leads into a largely fine day in more northern parts on Friday.

The respite doesn't last further south, however, and a further area of low pressure is currently expected to move across the southeastern quadrant of the UK on Friday, with rain possibly turning heavy and persistent for a time in the south. At this time there is some uncertainty of the track and extent of influence of this particular system but there is certainly a risk of rain in areas that could do without a top-up.

Then, starting Friday night with yet another deep depression moving in from the Atlantic, it will remain unsettled and windy as we go through the weekend.

 

Monday 10 February—Sunday 16 February Hopefully a sign of something drier?

 

It will stay unsettled and occasionally windy through the following week with further showers or longer spells of rain, these occasionally heavy and with a risk of hill snow in the north. To offer a crumb of positivity, it currently looks as though the best of any drier and brighter interludes will be in the east and southeast. There is certainly no threat of significant, disruptive snow, as temperatures are signalled to be generally rather mild in the south. In the north they will be near to normal with the risk of overnight frost and ice.

 

Monday 17 February—Sunday 9 March No snow, but perhaps less rain in places

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month with deep Atlantic lows continuing to sweep by the UK, especially towards the northwest of our islands. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather.

Meanwhile, with higher pressure tending to favour the opposite corner of the country, southern and eastern regions would tend to see the longer spells of drier and brighter weather. As we have tended to see throughout this winter, some colder periods are possible, particularly between weather systems. This suggests that temperatures are likely to remain close to the seasonal average, with frost and ice possible by night.

 

Next week

 

As the start of meteorological spring edges closer, will a change of season bring a change of weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited February 3, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

It's like Groundhog Day, all over again

 

After one of the wettest Januarys ever recorded, goodness knows the UK could do with a prolonged dry period and a bit of a wringing out. Sadly, that does not look likely within this monthly outlook. Instead the recent weather pattern looks set to continue and once more we are facing a month ahead that seems to offer little prospect of significant snow but plenty more wet and windy weather.

 

Monday 3 February—Sunday 9 February Rain and gales with a side order of rain and gales

 

Several areas of low pressure will affect the UK through the week bringing a prolonged spell of very unsettled and stormy weather. By and large, temperatures will be near normal or slightly above. There will be showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, accompanied by gale or severe gale force winds. Monday is already proving to be no exception, with rain and gales in western areas. Through Tuesday night into Wednesday there will be further gales affecting a wider part of the UK, with overnight rain followed by frequent heavy showers during Wednesday.

Thursday offers a quieter day for most, not without some showers scattered around but with winds easing off and more in the way of sunshine between any showers. It will be colder in the north on Thursday night, with a risk of frost and ice where skies clear. This leads into a largely fine day in more northern parts on Friday.

The respite doesn't last further south, however, and a further area of low pressure is currently expected to move across the southeastern quadrant of the UK on Friday, with rain possibly turning heavy and persistent for a time in the south. At this time there is some uncertainty of the track and extent of influence of this particular system but there is certainly a risk of rain in areas that could do without a top-up.

Then, starting Friday night with yet another deep depression moving in from the Atlantic, it will remain unsettled and windy as we go through the weekend.

 

Monday 10 February—Sunday 16 February Hopefully a sign of something drier?

 

It will stay unsettled and occasionally windy through the following week with further showers or longer spells of rain, these occasionally heavy and with a risk of hill snow in the north. To offer a crumb of positivity, it currently looks as though the best of any drier and brighter interludes will be in the east and southeast. There is certainly no threat of significant, disruptive snow, as temperatures are signalled to be generally rather mild in the south. In the north they will be near to normal with the risk of overnight frost and ice.

 

Monday 17 February—Sunday 9 March No snow, but perhaps less rain in places

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month with deep Atlantic lows continuing to sweep by the UK, especially towards the northwest of our islands. The most likely scenario during this period would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather.

Meanwhile, with higher pressure tending to favour the opposite corner of the country, southern and eastern regions would tend to see the longer spells of drier and brighter weather. As we have tended to see throughout this winter, some colder periods are possible, particularly between weather systems. This suggests that temperatures are likely to

 

remain close to the seasonal average, with frost and ice possible by night.

 

Next week

 

As the start of meteorological spring edges closer, will a change of season bring a change of weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited February 10, 2014 by Stuart

[Cwmbran Eira]

^{That's last weeks. This weeks is not out yet}

[Summer Sun]

^{That's last weeks. This weeks is not out yet}

 

This weeks is out now

 

Monthly Outlook

 

Summary

 

Is there any sign of a change in the weather?

 

While the exceptional weather will continue unabated this week, one question that keeps coming up is 'when is it all going to end'? Well, suffice to say that it won't be this week, and the indications are that it isn't likely to be next week. But there are some signs still towards the end of the scope of this forecast that a pattern change could be on the cards.

 

Monday 10 February—Sunday 16 February

 

Further rain and gales... but also some snow

 

Focus remains very much on further bouts of rain this week, with weather warnings already in place for Tuesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. The cumulative effects of rainfall from these events, on top of already very serious flooding situations, are certainly being closely watched.

 

Despite this there is the chance of snow this week, too. Broadly it will be a colder week than many we've seen this winter, with the risk of frost and ice at night if nothing else. A weather warning is already in force for Scotland for the risk of snow associated with the same system that is bringing Tuesday's rain, and the other rain events expected later this week could also have a snow element to them, as well as the showers in between weather systems.

The week starts on a better note, however, as Monday will be a drier day for many with lighter winds and some sunshine. Rain across southeastern areas will ease through the day, although further showers will affect the north and west.

 

It will become very wet and windy again on Tuesday, with a weather front sweeping from west to east bringing the aforementioned rain with the snow in Scotland and over hills elsewhere in the northern half of the UK.

 

On Wednesday there will be sunny spells but also strong winds and squally, possibly wintry, showers. The next spell of rain arrives Wednesday night and continues into Thursday, also accompanied by strong winds and again followed by showers.

 

Towards the end of the week the forecast models show a good deal of disagreement, so confidence is low as we head into Friday and the weekend. At present, a further spell of rain and possible associated snow risk is expected on Friday. Showers are likely to follow as the weekend gets under way, and temperatures look set to remain on the cold side of average through the weekend.

 

Monday 17 February—Sunday 23 March

 

No significant change on the horizon

 

Indications suggest that it will remain very unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the south and west where the heavier and more persistent rain is likely. Gales are expected at times, again especially in the south and west where locally severe gales are possible around exposed coasts. Some brighter weather is possible between weather systems though.

Whilst temperatures will be mainly near normal, it will be rather mild at times in the south and possibly rather cold in the north. Showers will be wintry on higher hills, particularly in the north of the UK.  Although it is likely to remain unsettled through the weekend, it may be slightly less windy and rain may become slightly less prolonged. Temperatures could recover a little too, with a decreasing risk of frost.

 

Monday 24 February—Sunday 2 March

 

Hopefully a sign of something drier?

 

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month, with deep Atlantic lows continuing to sweep by the UK, especially towards the northwest of our islands. The most likely scenario during this period therefore would see northwestern parts of the UK affected by the most frequent spells of unsettled and windy weather.

 

Meanwhile, with higher pressure tending to favour the opposite corner of the country, southern and eastern regions would tend to see the longer spells of drier and brighter weather. Such a signal seems more likely into early March. As we have tended to see throughout this winter, some colder periods are possible, particularly between weather systems. This suggests that temperatures are likely to remain close to the seasonal average, with frost and ice possible by night. Hill snow will also be possible, especially in the north.

 

Next week

 

Meteorological spring has sprung! But will a change of season mean a significant change of weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Is the weather about to calm down?

 

With the clean-up operation in full swing after the recent stormy weather left thousands of homes without power and brought widespread travel disruption the question on everyone's mind is "when will it stop?". The good news is that in the immediate future the weather does look less stormy; there is further rain in the forecast but a general shift to less extreme weather will come as welcome news to many.

 

Monday 17 February—Sunday 23 February Less stormy weather ahead

 

We start this week's forecast with another weather system moving in from the Atlantic. During Monday most will see some rain for a time; the heaviest rain will be in south west. The driest weather will be found in south east England where there may be some bright spells during the afternoon.

The middle of the week takes a calmer weather note. A blanket of cloud will smother most of the UK giving occasional outbreaks of rain but for many, largely dry weather will come as a welcome respite during Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern Scotland will see the wettest of the weather with more persistent rain and snow over the hills and mountains during this time.

 

Thursday looks set to bring another Atlantic low pressure system heralding the arrival of more wet and windy weather. There is some uncertainty currently in weather models about how this low pressure will develop as it travels across the Atlantic towards us, however, it does look like more rain is on the cards for all with the focus again being on the south and west of England and Wales. Accompanying this rain will also be some strong winds with the potential for gales along western and southern coastal areas. We can expect showers on Friday to end the week with and that rounds up what looks like an average February week - a welcome break from the stormy conditions of late.

 

Monday 24 February—Sunday 2 March Wet and windy weather set to continue

 

With the arrival of a new month and also the new meteorological season, will the weather play along and start behaving more spring-like? At this stage that looks unlikely with very little change on the horizon. More wet and windy weather is expected thanks to a continuing procession of Atlantic low pressure systems; however, with south and south westerly winds, temperatures should be above the seasonal average across all areas of the UK.

 

Monday 3 March—Sunday 16 March Improvement is on the cards

 

The signs in the extended forecast point towards an improvement in the weather towards mid-March. The main focus of Atlantic low pressure systems is expected to shift further north during this period allowing areas of high pressure to push into southern areas.

 

Next week

 

With improvement in the forecast - will it last?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited February 17, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 24 February Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A month of normal weather ahead?

 

Figures released by the Met Office on Thursday last week showed that the UK has had its wettest winter on record in the national series that goes back to 1910. That was with 9 days of the season remaining, and although the past week has been somewhat less unsettled in comparison, further rainfall from the final days of the month will be adding to those figures.

For statistical purposes, winter is considered to be the months of December, January and February. This means that March is the first month of meteorological spring. And there are signs that a change in season may also bring about a change in the weather, to something more akin to normal. There is cautious optimism for pressure to build from the south, at least across the southern part of the country which has been one of the wettest parts of the country during this exceptionally wet winter.

 

Monday 24 February—Sunday 2 March Remaining unsettled, further heavy showers

 

The waving weather front that brought high rainfall totals to the hills of Scotland, Cumbria and Snowdonia over the weekend will move eastwards, eventually fizzle over eastern parts of the UK on Monday evening. In its wake there will be sunny spells and showers through Monday, but with further wet and windy weather reaching the west later. This system will cross eastwards Monday night, clearing Tuesday morning leaving sunshine and heavy, blustery showers across many parts.

The rest of the week will often be windy with the risk of gales around coasts and over hills, and characterised by heavy showers, some of these tending to align in bands. Longer spells of rain will also be likely, especially on Wednesday night when another weather front crosses the UK. Following that front, chillier air will be in place as the weekend approaches, and as Saturday dawns a northwesterly flow is expected to be in place. So the temperature trend through another unsettled week will be from above average at first to perhaps slightly below come the weekend, with an increased risk of overnight frosts.

The weekend itself however remains unsettled with sunshine and showers, these falling as sleet or snow mainly over high ground but also to low levels at times in the north.

 

Monday 3 March—Sunday 9 March A change of month, a change of type?

 

As we go into the following week, there are signs in the computer models of something we haven't seen since the start of December. There are hints that the regime could start to turn more anticyclonic from the south. This would be welcomed with open arms by many, not least in those areas where some serious drying out is required.

So in the first full week of March, a colder, drier and brighter interlude is likely, especially over England and Wales. There will be an increased risk of frost by night, but daytime temperatures should return to nearer normal. Low pressure will not be too far away however, and a return to west or southwesterly winds is possible later in the week, bringing further spells of wet and windy weather. At this stage, it looks as though the unsettled conditions will be mainly to the northwest of the UK, with the drier and brighter conditions perhaps still holding on in the south and southeast.

 

Monday 10 March—Sunday 23 March A typical spring month?

 

Continuing the trend from the previous week, the latest indications suggest a pattern across the UK that is typical for March. This would mean spells of wet and windy weather continuing, but mostly in the north and west and still with some decent sunny spells in between. The best of the drier, brighter conditions will be most likely across the south and east of the country, with the suggestion that the Azores high will continue to build. With average weather patterns, temperatures are unsurprisingly likely to be around average. This would mean more frequent incidences of frost compared to recent weeks.

 

Next week

 

The signs are pressure will remain high to the south, but it's a fine balance - will the chance of more settled weather continue until the end of the month?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited February 24, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 10 March Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A Spring in our step - at least at first...

A fine week in prospect across the British Isles. However, there are signs that it will become more unsettled later this month, especially the further north you are.

 

 

 

Monday 10 March—Sunday 16 March A week of dry weather.

 

No significant rainfall is forecast this week!

 

A large area of high pressure is to thank for the stabilisation of our weather. Confidence in the pressure pattern and dry weather for this week is high. Sadly this does not give us a weather scenario without forecasting headaches, confidence in day-to-day cloud cover locally is low.

The cloud will come largely from the remnants of weather fronts and at times could be thick enough to produce drizzly rain. Rain totals will be minimal. Trying to pick out areas most likely to be affected with thicker cloud is difficult - but at the moment model forecasts are favouring southern England and Wales on Tuesday and northern England on Wednesday and Friday.

Thick cloud cover also has a big effect on temperatures at this time of year - by night limiting frosts, but by day holding back the warmth. Sunday (09/03) was the warmest day of

the year so far with temperatures widely in the high teens across central and eastern England. This level of warmth is not set to be repeated in the week ahead. Highs in the best of the sunshine will be around 13 or 14C. Gardeners keen with the bedding plants beware - clear skies at night will come with a risk of frost (and fog).

 

Monday 17 March—Sunday 23 March That sinking feeling...

 

By next weekend there are signs that our area of high pressure will begin to sink away southwards.

For northern Britain it is likely to turn unsettled, with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed by brighter but chilly spells with wintry showers.

To the south the high looks more likely to linger and should keep the weather largely dry, but it could be rather cloudy at times.

 

Monday 24 March—Monday 7 April April fool?

 

The end of March and beginning of April are currenly looking to offer fairly typical weather for the time of year - a pretty changable mixture!

Sunshine and showers is a good bet for the average day. Showers will tend to be most frequent in the north, with the risk of hill snow. Drier, brighter spells are most likely for sheltered southern and eastern areas.

 

Temperatures are likely to be near normal or below, especially in the north, and any clearer nights will be rather cold with the risk of frost.

 

Next week

Will April live up to its promise as the month of showers?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited March 10, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Finally some dry weather! But will it last...?

 

Last week finally brought some prolonged dry weather for the UK. An of high pressure dominated our weather conditions, resulting in very little precipitation and some pleasant

 

spells of sunshine to most places at times. That said, the overnight periods did get quite chilly at times, with some thick overnight fog, particularly for the south. On Sunday the temperature reached 20 Celsius in London.

As we move into the latter stages of March, can we expect this rather pleasant spell of weather to last? Well, true to form, the most likely scenario is that the remainder of March will serve up some rather changeable weather, with the start of April looking equally changeable.

Here's the weekly breakdown...

 

Monday 17 March—Sunday 23 March A decent start but taking a turn by the weekend...

 

This week will get off to a largely dry and cloudy start, with much of the country still under the influence of the high pressure system. That said, there will be a little rain for the far northwest of Scotland, and some low cloud lapping onto western coasts may still give a few spots of drizzle through Monday. By Tuesday, the anticyclone will start to sink away to the south, opening the door to Atlantic weather systems that will bring some wet and windy weather to the north. Although southern areas might see the odd shower on Tuesday, conditions here will more than likely stay largely dry, although fairly cloudy with a noticeable breeze. Wednesday should be a largely dry but breezy day with some bright spells developing and gales to the north.

There is still a degree of uncertainty to exactly how Thursday's weather will unfold, but the most likely scenario is that an active weather system will arrive in the northwest, bringing persistent rain and gales. Southeastern areas are likely to start Thursday fine and dry, but the rain in the north will eventually spread south and east by the early part of

 

Friday.

 

The passage of the unsettled weather during Thursday and Friday will mark the transition to a more mobile weather pattern, with most places seeing a combination of blustery west to northwesterly winds, heavy showers and sunny spells. Perhaps most noticeably though will be the general drop in temperature, with daytime maxima expected to be around about average or just below, in stark contrast to earlier in the week. Overnight periods through the weekend could bring a rural frost to parts of the north too.

Saturday and Sunday will most likely remain showery with a generally slightly cooler feel, particularly in the north.

 

Monday 24 March—Sunday 30 March Not exactly out like a lamb.....

 

The last week of March is expected to start on a showery note, accompanied by blustery winds. The showers could be heavy and thundery at times, particularly across northwestern areas, with even a wintry element possible to the hills of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. There will also be some brighter interludes though, especially across eastern areas that are likely to see the best of any sunshine. Perhaps the most salient feature of the weather early in this period will be the cooler feel relative to the recent past.

 

At the time of writing, the degree of uncertainty in the forecast detail for this particular week is unusually high. At this stage it does seem most probable that as the week draws

on, pressure will start to build across the more southern reaches of the UK. Consequently we can expect some drier and brighter weather in the south by the end of the week, with temperatures recovering to around about average for the time of year. Further north though, there will be a greater chance of prolonged spells of rain with some strong winds and generally cooler conditions. Overnight frosts are also a possibility throughout the period.

 

Monday 31 March—Monday 14 April April showers perhaps...?

 

As always, capturing forecast detail becomes increasingly difficult as we move further away from the present moment. The latest medium range forecast covering the start of April is no exception, with a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the type of weather we can expect over the UK. At the time of writing, the most up to date forecast suggests fairly typical weather patterns for early April, which would bring changeable conditions to the UK. As such, some spells of wet and windy weather can be expected at times, and these will be most frequent in the north and west, where local hill snow is possible at times. Occasional rain is also likely in the south of the UK, but still with sunny interludes. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, though northern parts may be colder at times, and some frosty nights are possible. More settled weather may develop across the south by the end of the period, bringing warmer conditions here.

 

Next week

 

Looking ahead to the end of April, will we see any sign of warmer weather? Find out here next week.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited March 17, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Clocks spring forward, but what about the weather?

 

So far this month, we've been treated to some particularly pleasant and relatively mild weather, especially for the eastern side of the UK. On two consecutive weekends, we saw temperatures peak at around 20 degrees across southeast England, with daytime highs also reaching the mid to high teens across parts of eastern Scotland and East Anglia. However through the course of the past week, a shift towards a northwesterly feed of weather saw a return to more seasonable conditions, with daytime highs nearer the norm, some overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and heavy showers. Indeed many areas of the country were treated to some rather picturesque early morning scenes through this past weekend, with snow covering the tops of some of the highest peaks from southwest England all the way up to northern Scotland.

As we move through this coming week, weather conditions across the UK are set to change again, with a broadly east to northeasterly wind developing, giving the best of the weather to the western side of the UK. But how long will this weather pattern persist?

Read on to find out the details.........

 

Monday 24 March—Sunday 30 March A cold start to the week!

 

This week began with a frosty start for the majority of the UK, with temperatures falling well below freezing for many parts. Infact it was one of the coldest starts to the day since way back in November! A weather front was already lurking just to the west of Ireland though, and this weather front is set to slowly move eastwards through the day to affect Northern Ireland, and later, other western areas of the UK, bringing some gusty winds, and good deal of cloud and some outbreaks of rain. Central and eastern parts of the UK should have a largely fine and dry day on Monday though.

 

Tuesday will get off to a slightly milder start, but there will be a scope for a touch of frost in some northern areas. Thereafter the day is likley to be dominated by a good deal of

 

cloud with some patchy rain here and there, this rain being more likely to fall across eastern areas with drier and brighter weather expected for the central swathe of the UK. Southwest England and south Wales are likely see a brief spell of very wet and windy weather though as an area of low pressure skirts the periphery of the UK during the latter part of Tuesday.

 

By midweek, the east to northeasterly wind develops. This will mean that eastern areas of the UK, particularly the southeast, will see more in the way of cloud with

 

accompanying showery outbreaks and a generally cool feel. Northern and western parts should have plenty of dry and bright weather though, although showers may occasionally push over from the east at times.

Heading into the weekend, conditions are likely to stay similar with high pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south maintaing a slightly chilly east to northeasterly breeze.

 

Monday 31 March—Sunday 6 April The days are getting longer!!

 

Heading into the first week of April, the most likely scenario is that the UK will remain under the influence of a east to northeasterly wind, with high pressure dominating weather conditions across western and northern parts of the UK. This will tend to mean that western parts will have frosty mornings, with a good deal of dry and bright weather through the daytime periods. Further to the east though, and particularly across southeast England, a nagging east to northeasterly is likley to maintain rather cloudy skies for much of the time, with a risk of further showers. Temperatures will probably be around about average or just below, at least for the first half of the week. The east should start to see some brighter conditions develop towards the end of the week, with a slightly warmer feel possible too.

Going into the end of this period though, there are signs that Atlantic weather systems might slowly start to make inroads from the west again, with spells of rain and stronger westerly winds, particularly for western parts of the UK. Temperatures may rise a little though, although no particularly mild spells look likley at this stage.

 

Monday 7 April—Monday 28 April April showers?

 

Early indications are that majority of this period will be(perhaps unsurprisingly!) fairly typical of an average April. With every passing day, there will be just a little more strength in any sunshine, so any of the sunnier spells that we are likely to see at times will in turn trigger some very showery intervals, particularly for inland parts. That said, some longer spells of rain are anticipated too, with these affecting western and northern areas the most often. Indeed southern and eastern parts of the UK will probably see the best of any drier weather. Winds are always most likley to be strongest in the northwest, with temperatures around about the monthly average. Overnight frosts are still possible at times.

 

Next week

 

Any sign of some warmer weather, or May flowers!!??....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited March 24, 2014 by Stuart

[Eugene]

UKMO not going for anything warm this weekend I see, next week they go for a continuation of easterly winds, I think next week is a very tough call indeed, will the block to the NE remain and keep us in cool easterlies or will it move away slightly allowing a moister warmer southerly flow eventually leading to the atlantic getting back in, extremely difficult to know at this stage.