BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Monday 13 October Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Keep holding onto your hats!

After the very quiet and settled weather we all experienced during September, it came as quite a shock to have some very wet and windy conditions affecting the country in the early part of last week. On Monday we saw a gusts of wind up to storm force. South Uist in the Western Isles of Scotland recorded a gust of 84mph in the early hours of Monday morning. Even for the Outer Hebrides which often faces the brunt of Atlantic gales, that is still relatively rare.

There was also prolonged heavy rain on Tuesday and into Wednesday over north east Scotland along with severe gales. People had to be evacuated from their homes on the sea front at Stonehaven in Kincardineshire due to the large waves. Heavy, thundery showers affected other parts of the country from Wednesday up to the weekend and there were various reports of a tornados from the Midlands up to Cumbria.

Over the weekend the weather took a pause for breath with lighter winds and showers becoming fewer.

 

Monday 13 October—Sunday 19 October More rain, but something milder to ease the pain.

 

Contrasting fortunes to start the week. Much of England and Wales will have some wet and cool weather with fresh to strong northeasterly winds. It will be a much drier and brighter picture for Northern Ireland, Scotland and also the north of England with some sunshine and lighter winds. The drier, brighter weather then extending to most parts later on Tuesday and staying mostly dry in the north on Wednesday. There will be some cold nights in the north with a touch of frost but cloudier skies in the south will result in milder nights.

Then all change for the second half of the week. A deep Atlantic low will approach western Ireland during Thursday with a band of wet and windy weather crossing the country. Then showers or longer spells of rain following on Friday and the weekend.

A noticeable feature by the time we get to Saturday will be a much milder feel to the weather. Warmer southerly winds will mean milder nights than earlier in the week and also daytime temperatures will be several degrees above average.

 

Monday 20 October—Sunday 26 October The low pressure spin-cycle continues.

 

Low pressure looks set to dominate the weather for much of this period. This will mean further unsettled weather with outbreaks of rain. The rain will be most persistent and heaviest over western Scotland and Northern Ireland. More southern and eastern parts of the country will have some drier and brighter spells, especially later in the week. It will be quite windy at times too, again especially in the northwest. As we go through the week winds gradually swing from a southerly direction to a west or southwesterly direction. This will mean a mild start to the week but then temperatures returning to near normal for the end of October.

 

Monday 27 October—Sunday 2 November Weather fireworks or soggy sparklers?

 

At this stage, there is no sign of anything too dramatic weatherwise as we finish October and go into November. However there are likely to be periods of wet and windy weather crossing the country. The heaviest rain and strongest winds will be over more northern and western areas. There are indications of more prolonged drier, settled spells of weather for southern and eastern areas. At this time of year this will mean some problems with frost and fog. Overall, daytime temperatures are likely to be close to or even a little above average.

 

Next week

 

As we creep closer to the end of autumn, will the chill wind of winter begin to blow

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited October 13, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Typical autumn if it wasn't so mild

 

After the remnants of hurricane Gonzalo gave the United Kingdom its windiest weather of the autumn so far, subsequent low pressure systems from the Atlantic have maintained this changeable weather pattern. This looks set to continue as we go into November. Whilst that may seem business as usual for the time of year, prevailing southwesterly winds look to keep things unusually mild with Jack Frost struggling to find work.

 

Monday 27 October—Sunday 9 November Scotland's soaker heads south

 

The week starts with a soaking in northwest Scotland from a slow-moving weather front and potential impacts from some places receiving well over 100mm of rain. The front will finally move south through Wales on Tuesday reaching southern England by Wednesday but giving totals significantly lower than seen in Scotland. Behind it higher pressure will on Wednesday give a welcome spell of dry, sunnier weather for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England but only after a colder night with a frost for some to start the day. Overall, though, this week's temperatures are expected to be mild or very mild. Cloudier, wetter weather returns from the west by the end of the week as another low pressure system arrives from the Atlantic.

 

Monday 3 November—Sunday 16 November Still mild but drier for some

 

High pressure may push a little further north giving a drier spell of weather for parts of England and Wales. Weather systems will still bring rain at times though so it won't be completely dry and above average rain is signalled for northwest Scotland. Confidence is moderate to high that it will be mild in all areas. Where pressure is higher some nights will be cooler than of late but even here temperatures by day are expected to remain on the mild side.

 

Monday 10 November—Sunday 30 November Staying mild

 

Winter may be approaching but it looks like winter weather isn't.... yet. There is moderate confidence that most parts will be unseasonably mild with temperatures

above average by day and night in winds from the south or southwest. There will be some rain at times although the northeast of Scotland will perhaps stay drier with plenty of shelter from the Highlands in the southwesterly flow. With that flow above average rain is signalled for the Highlands. Also some rain may drift up from the continent at times with indications of above average rain in southeast England.

 

Next week

 

Will the mild weather give way to something more winter-like? Just don't ask if it's going be a white Christmas yet!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited October 27, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

What does the next month look like?

 

The past week has been one of transition. Initially wet and windy with Atlantic low pressure systems swinging in from the west; but ending with a drier easterly theme - rather cloudy with a lot of overnight mist and fog which, being mid-November, has been stubborn to clear. So, it is with an easterly wind that we start next week - the question is though, how long will this last?

 

Monday 17 November—Sunday 23 November A much drier week ahead

 

We start the coming week with an area of low pressure easing away to the south of the UK bringing in an easterly wind on its northern flank allowing high pressure to gradually build in. Monday is set to see a weakening area of rain bring wet weather and cloudy skies to many; however, it will weaken throughout the day meaning that by the time Tuesday arrives it will turn drier although it will remain fairly cloudy. Wednesday sees the arrival of a weather front into the west of the UK, it never makes it very far though as it is running into high pressure. By Thursday the weather front has become stranded over western areas bringing nothing more than cloudier skies and patches of drizzly rain and that's how we end the week - rather cloudy but mostly dry.

 

Monday 24 November—Sunday 30 November Another fairly settled week

 

The following week at this stage is looking fairly settled with an easterly/southeasterly wind keeping conditions predominantly dry but often fairly cloudy. Later in the period it is likely that areas of rain and stronger winds will try and push into western areas bringing some wet weather here, though the progress of these weather fronts further east will be erratic and uncertain as they run in to easterly winds therefore the lion's share of the brightness and dry weather looks to be found in eastern areas of England and Scotland.

 

Monday 1 December—Sunday 14 December Turning more unsettled from the west

 

The transition to a more mobile westerly pattern with areas of low pressure pushing in from the Atlantic is always a slow and uncertain process; however, as we move into the last month of 2014 it does look like western areas of the UK will start to see increasingly wet weather. These bands of rain may at times push all the way over to the east coast of England and Scotland; however, it is here where we are likely to see the driest and brightest weather. In the quieter spells of weather, cooler spells are likely with some overnight fog and frost, at the moment though, there is no strong signal for the temperatures to dip below where they should be for this time of year.

 

Next week

 

Looking further ahead into December will we start to see a dip in the temperatures?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited November 17, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 1 December Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Mother Nature bid a fond farewell to the third warmest autumn on record over the weekend with lengthy spells of sunshine on Sunday, the last day of the season. Winter has now just set foot on our doors and it heralds a colder feel to our day to day lives. Fog, frosts, cold winds, occasional milder moments and even a peppering of snow over higher ground will make for an interesting few weeks as the ever complex UK weather continues to keep us on our forecasting toes.

 

Monday 1 December—Sunday 7 December It really is time for the winter woollies.

 

If we had to wrap this week up in a headline, it would be 'turning colder'. The last few weeks have been generally mild and while temperatures will gently slide away to average or a little below average, it will certainly feel cold when compared to the mild days of autumn. Sunshine and rainfall will be below average across southern areas but northern areas rainfall should be around average .

During Monday and Monday night, a front will edge into north-western areas, bringing outbreaks of rain. As the front moves into south-eastern parts during Tuesday, it will largely run out of steam and become patchy in nature albeit with plenty of cloud lingering. It will leave clearer skies in north-western areas and the chance of wintry showers over the higher ground in Scotland; icy stretches will also be a risk.

 

Tuesday and Wednesday can be broadly described as a north-west south-east divide. South-eastern areas retain extensive cloud with the risk of patchy drizzle, along with a brisk north-easterly wind, making it feel very chilly. North-western areas are likely to see more sunshine during the day but with frosty conditions likely during the overnight period, although the Northern Isles are likely to escape the frost with windy conditions in its place.

Thursday into Friday show signs of a cold plunge of air arriving into northern areas. As it stands, we are not sure how far south this will reach. However, what we do know is that we are likely to see wintry showers pepping the far north-western areas, particularly over high ground and whilst we might see more in the way of sunshine in general, it will be tempered by a particularly nippy wind. These conditions are likely to last through to the weekend.

 

Monday 8 December—Sunday 14 December High or Low - What does it all mean?

 

As the second week of December approaches, a north-south divide is the mostly likely scenario at the moment. Southern areas are likely to see high pressure influence the weather whereas northern areas are likely to see low pressure predominating. What does this mean? High pressure during the winter time usually implies more frequent occurrences of frosts and fog, below average rainfall and sunshine open to question as cloud often gets 'stuck' over the UK in winter. Northern areas will see more day to day variation in weather. Rain and wintry showers are likely to move quickly through, giving more varied temperatures, especially during the quieter periods seen between any frontal systems.

 

Monday 15 December—Sunday 28 December What will Santa be wearing?

 

The big question on everyone's lips is 'will it be a white Christmas?'. If I had the answer to that, I would have bet on it a long time ago! While we do not know the weather will be on a day to day basis this far out, we can gauge some signals from long term computer models. Currently, those models signal that there is no one favoured type of weather expected. To expand on this a little more, we are not expecting long periods of high pressure nor are we expecting just low pressure. However, there are some signs that a more unsettled picture is on the cards bringing wet and windy conditions at times along with some colder and settled periods in between the various weather fronts that will move through.

 

Next week

 

Autumn will be a distant memory as we begin to wrap up warm for winter. Next week we will take a peek into the beginning of a new year and what's on the cards for the middle of winter.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited December 1, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 8 December Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Jack Frost comes back with a bite.

We're now well and truly in winter and the temperatures seem to have responded accordingly; looking back through a week of daily extremes the -6.8C particularly stands out that was recorded at RAF Benson, Oxfordshire. The month ahead doesn't look like it's going to be bucking the trend of extremes either with plenty more chaotic weather in the forecast.

 

Monday 8 December—Sunday 14 December Wild weather on the horizon.

 

A frosty and wintry start to the week is expected. Monday is set for sunshine and showers; a brisk north-westerly wind will push showers in from the Atlantic. These showers will have a distinct wintry

flavour over the higher ground of northern Britain - accumulations here starting to mount up - 2-5cm possible above 200m.

Tuesday is set to see the weather turn wetter and windier with low pressure arriving from the west. A band of rain will progressively push through from the northwest to all; however it could be the strengthening wind that will be more noticeable as we head into Wednesday. Early weather warnings have already been issued for this on Wednesday - gusts over northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland between 60 and 70mph, perhaps in exposure up to 80mph. Mix this wind with plenty of showers rattling in, again wintry above 200m, gives a recipe for some pretty atrocious conditions.

Although conditions look to be easing slightly on Thursday it could only be a temporary respite with more wet and windy weather arriving through Thursday night. This does need closely watching though as it has a fairly large amount of uncertainty associated with its development at the present stage - the good news is though that it should whistle through very quickly leaving a showery picture for Friday but feeling rather cold.

 

Monday 15 December—Sunday 21 December Remaining unsettled for the UK.

 

Moving further ahead in the forecast it looks as though we keep the same weather pattern with areas of low pressure rattling in from the Atlantic. Typically in this type of set up northern and western areas of Britain tend to take the brunt of the wet and windy weather as low pressure centres track towards the east whilst southern and eastern areas favour better for drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures across the UK during this period are likely to be around the seasonal norm; though there will be fluctuations around this particularly when bands of rain cross the country.

 

Monday 22 December—Sunday 4 January I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.

 

Perhaps it will help to first define what a white Christmas actually is... Well a Christmas can be classed as white if one solitary snowflake falls from the sky on December 25th. This is actually more likely than not to happen - it has happened on 38 of the last 53 years. However, seeing a blanket of snow is much rarer; happening on only four of the last 53 years.

What about this Christmas? At this early stage it looks like an unsettled regime is likely to continue to dominate towards the end of December with areas of low pressure likely to bring in bands of rain and strong winds interspersed with more showery but brighter conditions. So, for now, keep a close eye on the forecast as we approach Christmas Day.

 

Next week

 

Next week we'll take a closer look at the start of 2015 - new year: new weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited December 8, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 29 December Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Will the weather resolve to settle down?

After a run of milder and unsettled weather, snow arrived on Boxing Day to bring travel disruption. January usually brings more snowy days than December, so are we going to see a repeat? And will there be fireworks to see in the New Year?

 

Monday 29 December—Sunday 4 January A familiar pattern...cold, mild, then cold again

 

Coldest night of the winter so far will see a widespread frost on Monday morning. Temperatures could be down to -10C over snowfields in the north. Monday should be dry, sunny and cold for most, though freezing fog in Northern Ireland and northwest England could be slow to lift.
Freezing fog is expected more widely in England and Wales on Tuesday. Northern Ireland and Scotland should be milder due to a stronger southwest wind.
Midweek shows a gradual change to stronger and milder southwest winds with rain pushing down from the northwest.
Rain and strong winds may dampen the New Year celebrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Late Thursday into early Friday could bring a brief spell of stormy weather to the north with gusts 60-70mph. A lot depends on the development of a deep depression that may race between Scotland and Iceland.
Rain in the southeast on Friday will clear with all areas then seeing a return to polar maritime air by the weekend. This will usher in colder air with sunshine and showers, snow likely mainly over hills in the north

 

Monday 5 January—Sunday 11 January A westerly jet stream will bring a change of type

 

This is good inter-model agreement that a broadly westerly airflow is expected to dominate. This will lead to a changeable, often unsettled, and at times windy, period. Bouts of milder but cloudy and often wet conditions are expected to be interspersed with clearer but colder and showery periods. Temperatures probably averaging out around or a little above normal though large day-to-day fluctuations are possible dependant on the progress of individual frontal systems. Southern and eastern parts will probably see the best of drier and brighter conditions.

 

Monday 12 January—Sunday 25 January Little change...probably

 

The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions to persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather.
Whilst this is considered the most likely chain of events, there is a small chance that later in January the weather could become drier and more settled with colder conditions.

 

Next week

 

New year...but any sign of storms like last Winter?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...2635167#outlook

Edited December 29, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 5 January Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The weather continues to chop and change

 

Happy New Year from all at the BBC Weather Centre!

 

January seems determined to live up to its name, having already presented the two faces of winter (cold and bright or wet and windy).

The New Year began on a rather wet, windy and mild note with temperatures peaking into the low teens on New Years Day. By the first weekend of the year though, things turned much colder with a particularly drab Saturday, followed by a cold Sunday, with freezing fog patches persisting throughout the day across the Midlands, but also some bright sunshine further north.

As we head through the first week of 2015, spells of wet and windy weather will, once again, be frequently interrupted by colder, brighter interludes that will bring the threat of wintry showers to some northern areas. Indeed, this vacillating pattern has been a persistent theme in the UK weather over the past several weeks.

Is there any sign of this pattern breaking down? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 5 January—Sunday 11 January A quiet start but some wet and windy days to come!

 

The week will begin with a fairly cloudy theme, with perhaps the best chance of any brightness over parts of northeast Wales, and the coasts of northeast England and Scotland. Most places will be dry, but the cloud will be thick enough for a few spots of drizzle to affect some areas, chiefly the western coasts of England, Wales and Scotland.

A cold front is expected to make steady progress from west to east across the UK through the course of Tuesday, bringing some rain to all parts before clearer skies and colder conditions push in from the west. A frosty night is then likely to follow as we move through the night into Wednesday.

By mid-week, the first of a series of Atlantic weather systems is expected to sweep in from the west, bringing a spell of persistent and, at times, heavy rain and gales to many areas.

Towards the end of the week, another brief cold interlude is expected, with plenty of crisp winter sunshine for the south, but the risk of some wintry showers for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.

As we head towards Friday and into the weekend, another Atlantic weather system looks set to bring some very wet and windy weather to all parts of the UK, with widespread gales and even severe gales for northwestern parts of the UK.

The blustery and often wet weather looks like it will continue into the first part of the weekend, before another spell of colder, showery weather moves in from the west again.

 

Monday 12 January—Sunday 18 January No real change.

 

It's possible that the brighter, colder and more showery end to the previous weekend will spill over into the start of this period, offering at least the chance of some brighter and drier weather for a time, especially in the east.

In keeping with the changeable theme though, things look set to become wet and windy again from the west or northwest fairly rapidly bringing wet and windy weather to all areas of the UK by the mid-week period, if not earlier.

As the end of the period comes around, we look set to do it all again, with a brief cold spell allowing some frosts and patchy fog by night, and a lot of dry and bright weather (away from the wintry showers in the north) before strong winds usher in some Atlantic weather systems again.

 

Monday 19 January—Sunday 1 February Is there any sign of a lengthy wintry spell?

The latest long range forecasting tools are delivering a consensus that suggests a continuation of the rapidly changing weather conditions over the UK. As a result, it looks likely a that a succession of low pressure systems will sweep in from the Atlantic to bring wet and windy conditions at times, but these will be interrupted by colder spells with the threat of some wintry showers to the north and west of the UK. A somewhat familiar theme by now!

As February gets under way though, there are just a few subtle hints from some forecasting models that suggest that lengthier, settled interludes may well start to affect southern parts of the UK. This could result well result in some drier weather and a greater risk of some frosty nights in succession for the south of the UK. Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts to see how this potential development unfolds.

 

Next week

 

February is the last month of the meteorological winter, and although there have certainly been some cold spells, so far we have yet to experience any lengthy cold snap. Will the winter of 2014/2015 go out on cold or mild note? Find out more next week...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 5, 2015 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 12 January Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The weather continues to chop and change!

 

Towards the end of last week, two very potent Atlantic low pressure systems ran close to the northwest of the UK, bringing stormy conditions to much of Scotland and also parts of Northern Ireland and northern England. Gusts of well over 100mph were recorded over the Western Isles on Friday morning, and also widely reached over 80mph over mainland Scotland, bringing power outages and widespread travel disruption. The two storms were driven across the Atlantic by an unusually strong jet stream, which acted as the energy source for these two weather systems. At its peak strength, the jet stream reached speeds well in excess of 200mph. To put that jet stream speed in context, more typically, the jet tends to reach speeds of around 100 to 150mph, so this gives one an idea of just how energetic the atmosphere was last week.

So, you might ask 'what were the origins of this substantial jet, and will it continue to bring powerful Atlantic weather systems to the UK over the coming days and weeks?'. Well, a particularly cold spell of weather has been affecting northeastern parts of North America. As this cold air drifted east into the Atlantic, it met much milder air coming up from the south. It was this large difference in the temperature of these two sources of air created the strong jet stream.

As we move through this week, it does look as if the intensely cold air across North America will recede towards the Arctic again, and so the jet stream is expected to slow slightly. This slight weakening will not be enough to prevent further low-pressure systems being steered towards our shores in the near term though.

But what will happen as we edge towards February , the last month of the meteorological winter? Read on to find out our latest thoughts...

 

Monday 12 January—Sunday 18 January Cold and windy for much of the time.

 

The week will get underway on a windy note, with yet another Atlantic low drifting past the northwest of the UK. The good news is that this system should stay much further to the northwest in comparison to those of last week, but nevertheless, there will still be scope for some very windy conditions, particularly for the Northern Isles and parts of southeast Scotland and northeast England. Rain will accompany the strong winds, but the rain should slowly clear into the south through the day, leaving much of northern Britain back in cold air. Indeed, some wintry showers will cross the north of the UK at times as Monday progresses.

Monday's rain should eventually clear the southeast of England on Tuesday morning, leaving a very chilly couple of days as we approach mid-week. It looks like there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers for all areas through much of Tuesday and Wednesday, which is likely to lead to some accumulating snow, even to low levels in one or two places, particularly (but not exclusively!) in the north.

 

By late Wednesday/early Thursday, our attention turns to an area of low pressure set to sweep in from the Atlantic bringing a particularly wet and windy spell, with widespread gales and the risk of some prolonged heavy rain. There is also a risk that some northern areas of the UK could see a spell of snowfall, at least for a time.

By the end of the week though, the low should clear away towards Scandinavia, with the return of a cold west or northwesterly airstream, and the further risk of some snow showers and overnight frosts.

 

Monday 19 January—Sunday 25 January There's just no let up!

 

The wintry feel that marked the end of the previous week is forecast to continue into the early part of what will be the final full week of January. Most places should see a continuation of the cold feel, with strong winds adding a further chill to the air. There will also be some good sunny spells around (particularly across eastern parts), but wintry showers which could well fall as snow to fairly low levels at times will again threaten many western and northern areas at times. This colder interlude is then expected to be followed by yet another Atlantic low-pressure system that threatens to bring heavy rain, and widespread gales to our shores. Once the system clears away to the east, the cold air is expected to move in again, and the pattern repeats. More cold weather and the threat of wintry showers! The latest forecasts do indeed suggest that quieter weather seems to be at a premium as we approach the end of the month.

 

Monday 26 January—Sunday 8 February Will a new month bring any change?

 

At the time of writing, the latest long range weather forecasting tools suggest that the seemingly endlessly repeating pattern of Atlantic low-pressure systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, followed by brief incursions of cold air from the west or northwest will continue well into next month. Very few of the computer models that we use to forecast the weather this far ahead suggest any sign at all of any lengthy, settled spells.

 

Next week

 

As we start to forecast further into February, we will be continuing to look for any signs of this persistent, mobile weather coming to an end! Find out more next week...

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 12, 2015 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 26 January Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A cold spell on the horizon.

 

Last week brought some of the coldest weather the UK has seen for some time. With the winter of 2013/2014 being the 5th mildest winter on record (and records began back in 1910!), it's not that surprising that many areas of the UK saw their coldest nights since way back in March 2013. Temperatures dipped to -14 Celsius on Monday across the snow fields of the Highlands of Scotland, and -9 across western Berkshire on Friday morning.

The weekend saw the return of some milder conditions from the west though, and as we head into the start of this week, it looks like temperatures will stay around the average for late January, with some spells of wet and windy weather at times. By late week though, strong northwesterly winds look set to usher in some rather cold weather that will likely last for several days.

Beyond that, a spell of quietr but still rather cold weather is currently thought most likley. A return to broadly westerly winds driving a succession of Atlantic weather systems across the UK is then anticpated as we head into mid-february.

 

Read on to find out the details...

 

Monday 26 January—Sunday 1 February Breezy and damp giving way to cold and very windy!

 

The last week of January will get off to a breezy and damp start as weather fronts and some relatively mild Atlantic air clear away into the continent. This process should leave the remainder of Monday as a fairly dry and bright day for most, save for a few wintry showers that will affect the far northwest of Scotland at times. Conditions will be a little chilly overnight into Tuesday with perhaps a slight frost for rural areas, but during Tuesday another fairly weak Atlantic weather system will be ushered in by brisk westerly winds to bring cloudy, milder conditions with some further patchy rain, chiefly for western hills of the UK.

Cloudy, wet and windy weather is likely to be the order of the day on Wednesday with further Atlantic weather fronts moving in from the west.

By late Wednesday though, the UK weather looks as if it will take on a much colder and windier theme, with strong to gale force northwesterly winds bringing cold air across the UK, and the risk of some periods of snowfall, particularly for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern areas of England, but possible just about anywhere for a time. There will also likely be an increase in overnight frost risk and icy patches as we move through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. February looks like it will get off to a very cold and windy start!

 

Monday 2 February—Sunday 8 February Cold through the first week of February.

 

The cold and strong northwesterly winds that developed towards the end of January look likely to continue through the first week of February, with many areas seeing strong to gale force winds at times, particularly in the north, with even the risk of severe gales around some exposed coastlines of the north and west. Low pressure systems may also be picked up in the northwesterly wind and be driven across the UK, bringing the threat of some spells of snowfall.

By the end of the period, most of the forecasting computer models suggest that an area of high pressure, initially anchored over the mid-Atlantic, will drift eastwards to be positioned over the UK. This process will likely result in a continuation of the cold theme and the associated risk of frosty nights, but the weather is likely to become significantly drier and less windy. Indeed, freezing overnight fog patches are also a likely issue as we head towards the end of first week of the month.

 

Monday 9 February—Sunday 22 February Returning to a changeable theme.

 

At the time of writing, the majority of the medium to long range forecasting computer models are suggesting that this period will begin on a changeable note, with a swift return to Atlantic lows crossing the country from the west (a very familiar theme so far this winter of course!). At this range, it is difficult to assign any specific details to the forecast regarding such features. However, it looks most likely that all areas of the UK will experience some wet and windy intervals, with further cold incursions of air from the north or northwest from time to time.

We await further forecast information with interest!

Next week

 

Will winter bow out on a cold or mild note? Be sure to get the up-to-date medium range forecast details next week.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited January 26, 2015 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 9 February Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A dry and settled end to winter

 

February began with a cold snap across the UK with overnight temperatures falling as low as -10.8C at Dalwhinnie on the 3rd. This cold brought snow showers and widespread ice causing travel disruption on many of the nation's major road and rail routes. Towards the end of the week an area of high pressure started to push in from the Atlantic bringing slightly milder conditions across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England, but with the milder air came much cloudier skies. It remained cold across southern counties of England with strong winds on Friday bringing a penetrating cold to a sunny day.
High pressure continued to establish its dominance through the weekend with dry, mainly cloudy weather, though one or two sunny spells allowed temperatures to recover in the north.

This week looks to remain settled with high pressure very much in charge leading to dry, mainly cloudy conditions with light winds. Temperatures will slowly rise day by day with the exception of a brief mid-week colder spell.

 

Monday 9 February—Sunday 15 February Breaks in the cloud will make all the difference

 

This week looks to be largely fine and settled with plenty of cloud around at times. There will be some sunny spells poking through, mainly for eastern Scotland and northeast England. However, breaks in the cloud don't always mean good news. Where these breaks appear overnight, they will allow temperatures to drop away bringing frost and allowing fog or freezing fog to form. This fog is likely to linger where it does form leading to the possibility of low daytime temperatures in such places. Away from the fog though, temperatures will be a touch higher than of late but it may still feel rather cold in the south.
Towards the end of the week and into the weekend a few outbreaks of rain along with blustery winds may well sneak around the top edge of the high pressure and into northern parts of the UK.

 

Monday 16 February—Sunday 22 February Spring hasn't quite sprung just yet

 

The second half of February is forecast to continue with a mainly dry and settled theme. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather with grey, cloudy skies occasionally giving way to sunny spells, particularly in the south and east. Again these cloud breaks will allow overnight frost and fog where they develop and again this will be slow to clear during the day.
Winds will be strongest in the far north and look likely to bring the odd wetter but milder period to north and west Scotland. Elsewhere, very light winds will be the order of the day where temperatures will be around average or a touch below.

 

Monday 23 February—Sunday 8 March The end of winter?

 

The last week of February looks set to continue with the mainly dry and settled conditions with predominantly grey skies interspersed with the odd break which by day will feel quite pleasant but by night will continue to lead to frost and fog in places. Temperatures will be generally below average as we end the meteorological winter.
As we spring into March the influence of the Atlantic will start to show, slowly edging the high pressure away allowing more changeable conditions to creep into the UK. The focus for the brightest weather will shift to eastern areas as bands of rain with stronger winds make an effort to move in from the west. This should allow temperatures to creep up to around average for the time of year.

 

Next week

 

Technically spring is here but will we see snowdrops in bloom or some late season snowflakes in the air?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited February 9, 2015 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 2 March Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Is winter coming or going?

 

March signals the start of the meteorological spring which we tend to associate with very changeable conditions; early morning frosts, occasional showers and a gradual increase in temperature. The winter months are December-February and whilst provisional statistics suggest it's very likely that the UK has seen its sunniest winter since records began in 1929, figures for temperature and rainfall have been fairly average.

Early figures for February show a drier and cooler than average month thanks to high pressure and settled conditions at the start.This trend for cooler than average conditions looks set to continue into March with strong winds, chilly temperatures, overnight frosts and heavy wintry showers. As we move towards the middle of the month, high pressure seeks to establish itself bringing more settled weather and a gradual increase in daytime temperatures.

 

Monday 2 March—Sunday 8 March A wintry feel to the start of spring

 

Monday will be characterised by strong winds and gales across the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and showers. The best of the sunshine will be found in southern and eastern areas with heavy, thundery showers to the north and west. These showers are likely to bring hail and snow at times, particularly over higher ground but even to low levels for a time. Mid-single figure temperatures will feel much colder in the wind. Tuesday brings a slight easing of the wind but with further heavy, thundery and wintry showers for the north and west. A ridge of high pressure will build in through the middle part of the week to settle things down with fewer showers and much lighter winds but this will allow a widespread sharp frost for Thursday morning. Through the end of the week a band of rain will slip south-eastwards across the UK before an area of high pressure starts to push in from the south bringing drier and less windy conditions.

 

Monday 9 March—Sunday 15 March Starting to feel a bit more spring-like

 

As high pressure continues to build from the south, much of the UK will see dry and settled weather with temperatures near or slightly above average by day but with temperatures falling away quickly overnight with widespread frost. It is likely that the settled weather will bring periods of sunny weather but there will also be cloudier interludes. Across northwestern areas it looks likely that there will be occasional outbreaks of rain as weather systems from the Atlantic sneak around the top of the ridge of high pressure.

 

Monday 16 March—Sunday 29 March Staying settled for most but still chilly by night

 

In the second half of March it looks probable that the UKs weather will be dominated by high pressure at first, but that this will weaken and become more localised to the south of the by the end of the month. Under the high pressure, conditions will remain dry and settled with mild temperatures by day and cold, possibly frosty nights. Further north, sporadic rain and showers will continue to edge around the high pressure but any extended wet and windy period looks unlikely.

 

Next week

 

Will April bring the customary showers?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited March 2, 2015 by Stuart