Penrith Snow

You can't polish a turd and you can't say this mornings ECM is anything other than miserable. After the next few days of cool, showery weather low pressure takes over to renew the monsoon conditions of March with Southern districts in particular exposed to low pressure to the south west. Meanwhile a large high develops over mainland Europe bringing most of the continent a early heatwave. Let's hope this isn't the pattern for summer.

Disappointing ECM this morning as after the northerly blast next week the Atlantic High fails to move over the UK but stays to the west of Ireland instead. This would bring cool, cloudy conditions to much of the UK throughout next week. GFS has more of a high pressure influence but its flabby and retrogresses in FI to give another spell of northerly winds. After the nice day yesterday you might want to put the BBQ back in the shed for a couple of weeks. Andy

Poor GFS this morning with no sign of high pressureeven into FI, the flow becomes more westerly zonal with depressions on a more northerly track which should allow drier weather into the SE. However, areas further north and west are relentlessly wet with northern England and Scotland receiving 100mm of rain by day 10. High pressure is over France in FI but just not close enough and certainly not the proper spell of high pressure we are looking for. Couldn't really be any worse, indeed, I don't like the look of GFS FI because as mid Month approaches much of Europe is enjoying a early heatwave while the UK and Scandinavia remain under an Atlantic influence, we have seen this scenario play out many times in recent years. Andy

CoventryWeather Oh God not the dreaded 10 day ECM chart, have been following that since Christmas and it leads to nothing but disappointment. GFS at day 10 isnt that great either unless you live in a loft conversion in London. long way to go yet. Andy

damianslaw That's why I didn't expect much from Winter 2023/24 and I always thought forecasts of a cold February were very unlikely given historical comparisons. Things will change eventually but I worry that increased SSTs to our south west could trap us into a new Blade Runner film type climate. Let's hope not Andy

KTtom Correct and it's the worse possible set up, worse than proper zonality which at least gives the occasional sunny day and frosty night between depressions. But a semi permanent low out west just gives relentless south westerlies, mild in winter, cooler relative to average in summer but wet and persistently dull with little sunshine all year. It's like the climate depicted in the film Blade Runner and maybe the weather that reflects modern Britain. Andy

damianslaw And when you look at the current synoptics with a southerly flow over the SW you wouldn't forecast snow in January never mind late March. With the SSTs it's remarkable really. Andy

If you thought the weather couldn't get any worse then look at this mornings GFS, after a brief lull on Easter Monday the though out rest moves back over the UK as a new area of low pressure heads towards England and Wales, this sits around for days before another even more intense low arrives in FI. Meantime pressure builds stronyly to the North so the jet stream has nowhere to go except Western Europe. Meanwhile The Azores Ridge extends into Iberia so after some welcome rain the drought returns to Spain, which is something they don't need. When I watched last night as rain turned to heavy snow across South West England and Wales on a South Westerly airflow in late March I thought this is it, its the End of Days Andy

Although this was a rubbish winter it wasn't as bad as some recent ones in East Cumbria, we managed 3 snowfalls of 3cms or more, 7 days with lying snow and 3 ice days. Winters 2007, 2008, 2014, 2016 and 2017 were worse. Rainfall was above average but not excessive, it was however very dull with little sunshine which added to the gloom. Andy

ANYWEATHER Hmmm, I suspect the collapse of the Iberian ridge is temporary, pressure will be building over the Med soon anyway as the sun moves northwards and I suspect the ridge will be slow to recede come Autumn, I would not be surprised to see a Iberian High dominated winter in 2025 Andy

Cheshire Freeze Wow, look at all that rain in Iberia, the semi permanent Iberian ridge has finally collapsed. Good for the severe drought in Spain and Portugal but the excessive rain in the UK is the last thing we need. Note the lack of precipitation over the Pole, clear signal for extensive Northern blocking. Andy

Models have trended even worse overnight, firstly the Fax Charts have Thursday low centred over Western Scotland compared to Western Ireland yesterday so this has the effect of the low stalling and filling over the UK during Easter instead of out West which would have given us a more southerly flow. So Easter is almost certainly going to be cool and very showery with limited sunshine. After Easter all models now build pressure strongly to the NW so after waiting since Christmas we finally get the Northern Blocking we have been looking for but of course its 8 weeks late. At least the northerly winds shown again on GFS would be drier and brighter but temperatures would be well below normal. Which ever way you look at it Spring is further away than ever, the repeated SSWs have finally had an effect but not the one we wanted. Andy

Owning a Washing Line in Cumbria is like owning a Sledge in Cornwall!

If youhave woken up in a bad mood don't look at this mornings GFS! Yesterday's signal for a drier spell in April has vanished, instead we have a strong ridge across Iberia and the UK under a strong zonal flow. ECM brings misery in a different form with a channel low, northern blocking and -10c uppers into Scotland by day 10. The unsettled Easter is all but nailed on with any warmer spell in the SE receding as the low pressure is now likely to be further east than modelled by ECM a few days ago. My advice is stay at home Easter, put the central heating on and do some decorating Andy

GFS has a much improved FI this morning with a strong April UK High but it doesn't save Easter which is still signalled to be wet, windy and mild. ECM slightly better with the low further west and the UK under a more southerly influence so not as wet and relatively warm especially in the SE. London and the SE are still in with a chance of a reasonable Easter but the rest of the UK looks poor and I pity anyone who has paid top dollar for a hotel in Cornwall over Easter. Andy