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Radiating Dendrite

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Radiating Dendrite last won the day on July 12 2012

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    Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences
    January 1987 / July 2006

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  1. Why is it when a cold spell looks like ending we get the, these models have never seen such a rare setup before myth being belted out. They're algorithmic, data crunchers..... every synoptic presented to them is rare as no two things in the atmosphere are ever the same with it in constant motion. I think some people think they're real living enterties - Gary GFS, Eric ECM and Urs UKMO.
  2. -8c here this morning. I've enjoyed the cold spell, but a mild break to recharge the batteries would not go unwanted now. The snow has now turned to sheet ice and it is not particularly pleasant. Models do look a little conflicted, but I'd say mild and then a little chilly later next next week with a possible colder reload in the NY and maybe from the east.
  3. The low is expected to form in the channel this evening - I wouldn't waste your time watching the showers over the west country. Yep - brass monkeys! -7c here in Purley.
  4. The models seem to be upgrading the event for later today. Think anywhere south of Central London could see a few centimetres, would be lovely to have some crunchy snow.
  5. Given the low Dam and cold uppers the sea pressure is largely irrelevant. We have seen easterlies deliver snow showers at such pressures.
  6. Get the 850s a couple of degrees lower and the north sea snow machine would go into overdrive.
  7. Nice to see the PV has chosen Asia for his holiday destination this year. Let's hope for some strike action so he can't make it back to Greenland and Canada. Some places in the UK could see a lot of snow over the next couple of weeks and it is the perfect time of year - no strengthening sun to melt it away.
  8. Looking at the ECM again on the 3hr intervals and it's underwhelming in all honesty for this in the south. The uppers max at about -6c and then we have pockets of warmer uppers in the trough circulation before the low moves in from the SW and brings rain. For my location, all I see is a few cold and sunny days with frosts before the rain returns.
  9. Think I'm missing something here - all the GFS shows after the initial northerly is a series of lows bringing rain with the possibility of snow for Scotland? Where is narnia?
  10. Great charts again - the ECM would likely correct south, models are always progressive with energy against a block. We usually say with a cold spell, we have a ticket for the raffle. This feels more like a stash of tickets for the euromillions.
  11. A few already looking for the breakdown lol. Out in lala land the models are always too progressive. We either get a high on steroids or a resumption of dart board lows. The answer is likely in the middle, a possible waning of heights and then either another cycle of amplification or a messy breakdown.
  12. Somebody mentioned 2010 last night and that is starting to get pretty close to that in terms of GH and very cold NE flow. Great to see, but a looooong way to go still. Nice to see the 00z improve on the 18z run. It is normally like waking up with the beer goggles having been taken off, but last night we did actually pull a cracker!
  13. Surely the elephant in the room is the lack of low pressure in the med. We see the same theme each winter, sinking high that had nothing to prop it up.
  14. Let's just hope you're very wrong then. I don't think anyone would disagree that the projected uppers are not spectacular, but the pattern with such a strong positive heights anomaly is what people are getting excited about. We usual start December mild and wet with an angry PV over Greenland...... just nice to see something a little different showing. I don't think I've ever seen you be positive about a colder scenario - always in the I told you so brigade.
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