Geordiesnow

The Eagle Is the odd gust of up to 60 to 70mph in exposed coastal spots really justifies a storm being named? I would agree if trees are in full leaf and it's the first storm of the season but we are getting so soft we really are. For the majority of Ireland, it will be nothing more than a windy day, the infamous crisp packet flying in the wind.

So the Irish met is naming a storm for bog standard gale force winds. There is nothing on the charts which suggests this should be classed as a named storm but here we are.

WYorksWeather I think the amazing and alarming thing for me is the plume we are seeing is the second one quickly after the first one that has hit Germany eastwards smashing temperature records and is going to absolutely rapidly melt any snow cover well to out east which of course in turn will lead to more warming. The amazing thing for me usually if you see a pool of warm/hot air moving northwards, it dilutes to the south but this is not the case because Africa/tropics have been at record breaking in terms of warmth. It's going to be an interesting summer in the northern hemisphere I feel, the affects of El Nino and climate change will surely make their presence known and it's all ready starting and we barely started April nevermind summer!

Spah1 Think that's the issue though, if there was more colder air in play, I think the low may of 'slide' more and perhaps any PPN missing us because the cold air is acting as a block/deflector. Even if the PPN did reach us and we were in colder air, would there be less PPN around on our side of the hills as of course cold air is also drier air so the rain shadow affect may of come into play more(which is what the models did seem to initially hint at). Seems like from my limited experience of living here, a frontal snow event coming up from the south/South West could be almost impossible meteologically because of the factors I mentioned and the sleety/wet snow type is the best i can hope for. Of course I'm talking mainly IMBY here, places like Liverpool would be in a better spot for sure as the rain shadow is far less pronounced.

damianslaw Intensity has increased here on average but it's inconsistent although I do love watching the downdrafts of a heavier bursts. I do reckon parts of Cumbria could do quite well if intensity improves also, be shocked if there is no decent covering on the hills over there.

Gary L Don't think it makes a difference, we needed more cold air to flood down and for overnight temperatures to be lower than what they were. Of some interest for members to the north of me and on higher ground, despite PPN being light, there is a sleety element to it. Intensity is of course an issue but maybe a good sign for higher parts of Cumbria later on.

Joe Bloggs If the air was colder(negative DP), it would be drier therefore a rainfall shadow would be more obvious but because the air is not that cold the shadow is less pronounced although clearly going by reports there is some evaporation going on so it's not a massive of PPN as the radar suggests.

damianslaw Evaporating before reaching the ground, the usual when conditions are right but the air is to dry!

Joe Snow Oh for higher ground in terms of the Pennines, it should be snow, I'm not writing that off, I'm on about lower levels in the north west where the PPN looked more patchy but now the models saying it's going to be mostly rain, the shadow is much less obvious.

Day 10 I'm also noticing on the recent PPN charts now rain seems to be the order of the day, the rain shadow has also disappeared and it's looking more like a solid band of PPN again.

frosty ground I certainly never intended to come across that way all I said the Arctic airmass coming down was just a "wishy washy" type with 850s not being particularly low. In all honesty I don't even think it comes across that way and not quite sure why you interpret it that way? Let's hope I'm wrong and there is some surprises of at least people seeing snow falling before it reverts back to rain.

Day 10 Obviously it coming in the daytime does not help things either. It would seem the best scenario for frontal snow in this region is a front coming in from the West into cold air with little or no wind. I've lived here since 2015 and I don't recall ever seeing a significant frontal snow event although I think it's always much tougher up here because the rain shadow affect will come into play whilst those further south and especially in the Liverpool area. Hopefully it will happen again one day as too often it seems the cold breaks down without much of a significant snow event and not just in this region but UK wide.

frosty ground Funny how you mention negatives yet your post previous mentioned "looking like a washout for most tomorrow". What do you want me to say? Be one of those members who wants likes or be one who is just saying from what I am seeing. I might be wrong and Im hoping I'm wrong(and I have been before) but it's not going to stop me posting from what I am seeing. I'll be more than positive if I see true sustained proper cold blast, like we did a few weeks ago and not this transient half hearted affair. I mean the dew points across most of the region are above freezing so it's not really all that cold out there and yet I have seen comments in here we are in for 6+ hours of snowfall(!).

Said a few days ago, the air coming down from the north is just a wishy washy type of polar airmass, it's not true cold unless 850s are -8 or below and only Scotland gets that type of air. I don't think there will be barely a frost tonight which rather sums it up. So apart from high ground, then it's looking like a cold damp miserable day with a raw easterly wind. It was always a transient event in anycase so even the hills in this region will be going from snow to rain. I think one thing to learn from this winter when looking at the models, a cold Scandinavia with low heights does very little to help our cold prospects, if anything it could be a hindrance but the lack of true blocking apart from that brief period which actually resulted in a true Arctic blast means we are always fighting against the odds.

russwirral I can see it both ways, it is good too see how things have advanced that we can have more detailed forecasts but the downside is some takes the graphics too literally and get hung up with what they are showing. As I always say, it's what the radar says that counts the most. Going from experience, I'm expecting very little here due to the rainfall shadow affect, I don't think the air is all that cold either and there will be alot of mixing. I think PPN will be quite patchy to the west of the hills aswell and it could be one of those infamous days where the radar says PPN is falling but nothing is actually reaching the ground until it's too marginal. I be a bit more excited if I was living on much higher ground and maybe the Liverpool area but even then, any snowfall is likely to be transient.