Jack Wales

Yes it's thoroughly depressing but with the northern blocking pattern seemingly locked in, coupled with a strong southerly displaced jet stream. I can't see any change until at least the end of April

The cold outlook is starting to fall into a similar pattern to previous years with the jet pushing the high slightly eastwards and directly over the UK. The consequence being that the cold will be pushed into central and eastern Europe and down to Greece etc.

Although we're in enso neutral territory, there is definitely a La Nina lag to the N hemisphere pattern atm with northern blocking, azores high displaced to the west and NW to SE jet flow into W Europe. As we get towards the end of May, the summer pattern will begin to show it's hand... if so, we better lose this signal soon, unless cool and rain is your thing!

Hi, just wandering if there's a summer forecast /discussion thread anywhere on here?

I don't know what his qualifications are but in fairness Brian Gaze is very knowledgeable. He's also a bit of a cold ramper so I think it's a testament to his professionalism that he's gone with a milder forecast. I agree with a lot of it except that Feb could turn out to be colder as the qbo should be switching more negative by then which should allow some of the colder background signals to prevail.

Hi. Apologies if this is the wrong thread but just wondering if the winter forecast has been issued yet? I can't see anything in the forecasts page.

5.3C and 100mm please

6.9 please

Chelston bermuda now reporting 98mph wind and 963mb pressure.

Eyewall now over Bermuda, it appears the eye will track just to the east...

Not sure if there is a seperate thread for Nicole, if so please feel free to merge this in. Nicole currently looking fantastic on satellite imagery and will undoubtedly soon be upgraded to cat 3. Just hope for Bermuda that she does not make direct landfall....

Do we have a thread for hurricane Nicole...

Yes, It looks ominous now and central pressures have dropped to 935mb. Given the current satellite presentation there's scope for some slight strengthening before landfall.

Miami is on the south east tip of florida

Miami should escape the worst of it but will still experience trop storm conditions with hurricane force gusts. Imo the biggest danger area is from West Palm Beach northwards.