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oldsnowywizard

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  1. oldsnowywizard
    I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years
  2. oldsnowywizard
    There are too many people on here trying to stir.. its not fair for newbies and not fair on those posters who spend their time providing us with thoughts and considerations.. this is the model discussion thread not a thread for .."the gfs is better or has this nailed" we are dealing with computers interpreations of data.. the charts you see are not handed down by mother nature and therefore not going to be correct all the time. Seriosuly i would ban most of the posts on here this morning. Wake up enjoy the snow coffee and potential you have and stick to the thread. Im not a mod but i have been a member for many years and ita horrid to see how this thread is tainted sometimes. OSW out.. ( sorry mods but it had to be said)
  3. oldsnowywizard
    According to the BBC Ian McCaskill sadly passed away :-( Sorry as off topic but He is up with the weather gods now :-) RIP Ianhttp://www.bbc.com/news/uk-38294661 Sorry I realised im about 3 hours to late.. Sorry mods please delete as appropriate!
  4. oldsnowywizard
    Nothing for a while on here.. i think that having the cold bottled up in the arctic was a good start to winter... i guess we shall see what happens come april when the rollercoaster starts to go downhill...
  5. oldsnowywizard
    any latest on this area gents? I have seen a few forums where there has been mention of the northern part of the Gulf Stream heading a little further south... but nothing to back it up or to confirm if its normal for this time of year? I think the MET also suggested that whilst 2015 and 2016 would be globally warmer that western EU could be cooler.. cant remember if that was due to the link of the GS or not?
  6. oldsnowywizard
    There will be pleanty of opinions out there for why we have ended up where we are..my thoughts are as follows... For the past 2 winters more especially last one, we saw that for most of the period the cold air was forced out over the hudson area... hence the reason for the late melt out here.... it would stand to reason that this meant the ice ( fragile due to the past ) did not get the required super and constant cold needed to help continue the trend... we therefore have a reset and a major one ... not yet as bad in terms of extent as the worst year...although the ice is clearly in the worst state i have seen it... with el nino this winter it will be interesting to see how the cold behaves in the arctic... it usually would be warmer and drier over canada and perhaps colder over europe .. .. lets hope the cold stays over the arctic.
  7. oldsnowywizard
    Re Hudson this is probably due to the last two years arctic air seemed to constantly be pumped over this area... so the bad news... Area has tanked http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_area.png good news is that cold air is set to return slap bang over the basin next week.. I think we will end up around the same level as 2011--
  8. oldsnowywizard
    Ha very good... so BFTV what positives are there up there at the moment ....anything going well or ok?
  9. oldsnowywizard
    The denialists...wow what a nice term for anyone with a different opinion or view... cool name for a film though...
  10. oldsnowywizard
    Not really.. i was looking at the high temps... besides even the graphics you provide show Barrow in the green 50f zone... yes there are some warmer temps along the coast a little further along I can see some 20 degrees there but for some reason I like using Barrow to compare... a bit like when others use single points to justify their objective - controversial comment weather.com - http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Barrow+AK+99723:4:US - highs of 55F or 15C and that is today... going down hill from now on... accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/barrow-ak/99723/daily-weather-forecast/331720 - of note is the 850s forecast on the 5th July ie Sunday... I can see a pocket of +10 to +15 850 air... and according to the 2m temps on wetter implying temps of +25... if you compare the links above and any other forecast the high is set to be 49 or 50F or 10 degrees C... so again a point to be made about relying on GFS 2m temps... anyway.. some interesting charts for you all.. day charts... not bad considering... will they change ? of course... but this is nearly July...
  11. oldsnowywizard
    Proves my point ...alot focus on the wetter charts as gospel... if you look at the 2m charts for barrow they read as 20+ degrees ..no wonder there are comments about extreme warmth... put it into context barrow rarely gets above 15 degrees in summer...not exactly warm... it would be helpful to use some of the towns around the arctic to gain some kind of more accurate reflection of what is going on at the coasts. Cheers knocks!
  12. oldsnowywizard
    850temps over Barrow at the moment are around+5...where as the actual temp at ground level is +12 ...the forecast of 850s is set to increase to +10 to +15....however the ground temps are forecast to drop to +9 and then further to +4.. im using wetterzentrale and then barrow weather forecast on accuweather... either can be wrong i guess ..but interesting none the less as you would have expected warmer ground temps with an increase in 850s....right?
  13. oldsnowywizard
    Interesting article... interesting comment 2 though...any evidence anyone can find about the large drop for wednesday of 350 ish k..
  14. oldsnowywizard
    Are we making the same mistake year on year and looking at 850 temps or are we looking at 2m temps? Extreme warmth and other comments are misleading... barrow is 0 degrees right now.. last week during the "extreme warmth" it went to a barmy 3 degrees.. it is june..weather patterns always from april to sep will allow warmer air into the arctic..there is not a force field in place stopping it. We know from the past that there are many other factors which will lead to ice melt.. radiation, ssts , etc etc. We do not know nearly enough to make anything but speculation. Gw for eg has since i have been a member talked about bad ice.. serious cracks etc ..but still the ice has not melted out as perhaps he and many others have thought... does that mean it cant happen..NO no one cant predict the future.. even i have been surprised by the ice as is today... after 07 and 11 i thought we were doomed.. i even bought a ..i heart gw t shirt.. but ...here we are..thicker ice than we have been used to over this last 5 years or so... lets see how it pans out..
  15. oldsnowywizard
    Laptev and East Siberia set to cover in the next two days... thats going to be a large increase when she goes...
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