Roger J Smith

1778 as already discussed went from near-record warmth 1-13 Apr to near-record cold 14-27 Apr, and had a daily average of only 2.9 on 24th which was broken in 1908 so it isn't in list of records now, but 22 April is still there (3.4 C). 1873 also had very cold days near 3 C not staying as records after 1908. I had a look to verify that no colder readings than 2.9 were broken by the 1908 and 1856 records. The 2.7 mean daily on 30 April 1945 is another case of a record low following warm April weather (record highs set 15-16 Apr). After 2.5 on 23 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1857 (also 3.4 in 1827). After 0.6 on 24 April 1908 the second coldest average was 2.9 in 1778 (also 3.2 in 1873). After 1.8 on 25 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1816, 1873 and 1950. (also 3.5 in 1829). After 0.7 on 29 April 1856 the second coldest average was 3.1 in 1782. The -0.2 of 19 April 1772 was not further ahead of 1.7 in 1849 (also 2.3 in 1793, 2.4 in 1838 and 2.5 in 1809).

The 1908 late April cold spell set three daily CET records including 0.6 on 24 April; only 1856 (0.7 on 29 April) has any reading lower than 1.0 after the --0.2 of 19 April 1772. Anyway, I looked into the question of a colder second half of April than Feb-Mar combined, and found six cases: 1809, 1815, 1859, 1884, 1903 and 1989. (note, Feb-Mar average is a daily average, only one of these cases (1903) actually yielded a late April decrease relative to both monthly means, as noted). This was the top 12 of (otherwise) smallest increases, and the six actual decreases heading the list. Least CET Increases second half April vs FEB -MAR YEAR ____ 16-30 APR ____ FEB -MAR ______ difference __ FEB CET _ MAR CET 1903 _____ 6.0 ______________ 7.1 ___________ --1.1 _______ 7.1 _______ 7.1 1815 _____ 6.6 ______________ 6.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 6.5 _______ 7.3 1884 _____ 5.6 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 5.3 _______ 6.5 1859 _____ 6.3 ______________ 6.5 ___________ --0.2 _______ 5.7 _______ 7.3 1809 _____ 5.8 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.1 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.0 1989 _____ 6.7 ______________ 6.8 ___________ --0.1 _______ 6.0 _______ 7.5 1938 _____ 7.4 ______________ 7.2 ___________ +0.2 _______ 5.1 _______ 9.1 1877 _____ 5.9 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.4 _______ 6.2 _______ 4.9 1849 _____ 6.5 ______________ 5.9 ___________ +0.6 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.1 1981 _____ 6.2 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 3.0 _______ 7.8 2017 _____ 8.2 ______________ 7.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 6.2 _______ 8.8 Despite record cold 23-25 April, 1908 was +0.9 (Apr 16-30 5.7, Feb 5.3, Mar 4.3 avg 4.8), 12th place for smallest increases. ------------ So, it has happened six times that second half of April was colder than Feb-March average, but only one of those was colder than both Feb and March averages, the other five beat March but not Feb; of the other six in the list, with small increases, one beat Feb, three beat March, and two were slightly warmer than both.

Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ... ... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ... YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease 1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7 1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6 1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6 1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5 This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two.

So, on subject of April cooldowns, sam e list as I posted for record warm first 14 days, but now arranged not in order of CET but in order of size of cooldown. There could have been larger drops from less lofty starting points but as we are talking about warm starts transforming to near average end points, only these seem relevant. YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result __ CET drop 14 to 30 Apr 2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ?? ___ ___ ?? ?? 1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 ___ ___ 1.2 1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.1 1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.0 1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 ___ ___ 0.9 1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 ___ ___ 0.6 1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 ___ ___ 0.5 1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 ___ ___ 0.2 2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ 0.0 2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ 0.0 1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ up 0.2 1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ up 0.3 1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 ___ ___ up 0.6 2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 ___ ___ up 0.8

Looks like 15 April will end a three-day run for 2024 at top of running CET (15th edged out 2011 at 11.1 C), and a seven-day run for top of running 31-day average (10.03 passed 1945 at 9.8, which tied 1803 in one dec). As both will be same (running CET) or higher (31-d) to 16th, 2024 will stop breaking these, and as you're discussing, probably won't return for any more spoils unless that warm spell at around weekend range locks in rather than yielding to cooler synoptics from north and east. It has been snowing lightly here today after three days of 15-17 C sunshine, so it's a volatile time of year.

Well I promised to take a look back, and on page 185 of "spring weather" forum I found April 2011 CET contest thread, back in those days Summer Blizzard compiled lists of forecasts and had this posted on 2nd April, I have only copied those above 11.0 (and a few late forecasts by one day noted were all in a range of 9.9 to 10.7). Long-timers will know that Craig Evans was later Lettucing Gutted and was famous for predicting high numbers all the time (after a few years of less exotic punts when we started). About one-third of current "regulars" were active then and a few other names have changed. If you want to know what you said for April 2011, have a look at the thread, it's interesting near the end too, as people discussed a historic month that had blown away a recent high set in 2007. Using CET legacy at the time, the scoring was done from 11.8. It has since changed to 11.9 in v2.0. So another win for Craig (to go with Dec 2015 and perhaps one or two others). Craig won on first entry at the time but now would be undisputed first. I was amused to find that I had the same forecast in 2011 as I did this year, I hope it does as well but as you see one enthusiast went as high as 12.9 in 2011 (and finished about 8th using CET legacy). 11.0C: Tony H 11.1C: Don 11.2C: Glacier Point 11.5C: Roger J Smith 11.6C: Atlantic Flamethrower 12.0C: Craig Evans 12.9C: Backtrack --------- I don't think anyone was complaining about April 2011, it was quite a dry and presumably sunny month and had pleasant warm spells all along its path. Near the discussion thread in the menu I noted a long-range forecast for summer 2011 that advertised a scorcher like 1976. Well ... the best weather of 2011 was probably in April and late Sep into early Oct. Not sure if Atlantic Flamethrower is still active on Net-weather, but software would change username I think (and display it in Apr 2011 post), and the post is still under that name. Glacier Point is still active, I believe, in model discussion threads. I will check that point about changed user names, as I know at least three entrants in Apr 2011 now use different handles -- this is why I didn't post below 11.0, as I don't want to get into that domain. I'll let username-change people identify themselves, but the Craig Evans - Lettucing Gutted legacy in our contests is probably universally known (and celebrated) anyway. There were a couple of other temporary handles used too. The only reason I use my middle initial is because before I joined there was a Roger Smith (not me) who had joined up, but I don't think they stayed around very long (I joined in 2005 and NW started around 2003, the contests date back to around early 2006). Wow, 13 years have gone by ... and we're still at it.

I agree, 75% of GFS dramatic cool-downs after seven days either fail to materialize or come in very weak and temporary. I don't know if it's a cumulative effect of climate warming overcoming what might have been good model development in an earlier setup, or a model flaw, but either way, it is well known even in "amateur" cli-met circles (people talk about it all the time on US weather forum too). Today (yesterday's running avg 11.5) could be our peak (hope not as it's also my forecast) but I would be surprised if we got much lower than 10.3 at any point. Later on I will dive into the archives and see what happened in the April 2011 contest. (yes there was one ... this all started around 2006).

Dire or not, April 2024 is now top of the heap for running CET (was 0.1 back of 2011 after 12 days) ... to repeat an earlier post, top 20 include these: YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result 2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ?? 1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 (1945 ____ 9.77 ____ 9.91 ___ ___ 10.1) (1850 ____ 9.75 ____ 9.74 ___ ____ 9.0) (2007 ____ 9.52 ___ 9.86 ____ ___ 11.3) Last three are not next consecutive but of interest. You might recall that I had a table of record warm 31-day intervals when 2024 broke a few back in Feb. We can now add 9 to 13 April as five additional such intervals taken down by 2024 (and no doubt also ending 14 Apr) 9.7 for 10-03 to 09-04 broke 9.6 in 1957. 9.8, 10.0, 10.2 and 10.3 broke values of 9.6, 9.5, 9.5 and 9.6 set in 2017 ending 10-13 April. Looks to be a sure bet for interval 15-03 to 14-04 to fall also. In other words, if calendar months ended 9 to 13 April, 2024 would be warmest on record for them.

EWP scoring for contest year and April (based on est 75.0 mm) In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March. Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 21.5+5 = 26.5. Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [ ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season. Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 75.0 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). Using an estimate of 75.0 creates a number of tied errors (e.g. 70mm and 80mm). Rank is currently not indicated as tied, higher forecast is ranked ahead of lower forecast. At end of scoring, these equal-error situations are ranked as ties, unless one is above and other is below normal which would separate their points totals although not scoring levels. <<< TABLE WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED >>> Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err] now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter] _01 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (05) __ Jeff C _________________ 9.24 __ 39.70 _____ 3.0 __ 29.82 mm _ 2 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] _02 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (01) __ J 10 __________________10.00 __ 38.59 _____ 0.0 __ 29.34 mm _ 1 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] _03 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (09) __ Weather26 ___________8.48 __ 38.38 ______8.0 __ 33.70 mm _ 6 _ (12) ... ... [5,16] _04 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (06)__ virtualsphere _________ 9.05 __ 34.57 ______5.0 __ 32.54 mm _ 3 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] _05 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (04) __ godber 1 ______________9.52 __ 33.16 _____ 2.0 __ 34.02 mm _ 7 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5] _06 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (12) __ Polar Gael ____________ 7.91 __ 32.81 _____10.5 __ 38.74 mm_ 14 _(23) ... [25, 31] _07 _ 02 ___111.0 (40) __ summer18 ___________2.59 __ 32.58 _____36.0 __ 33.34 mm _ 5 _ (2) ... ... [3, 2] _08 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (23) __ Feb1991blizzard______ 5.82 __ 32.04 _____ 20.0 __ 35.22 mm _ 11 _ (8) ... ... [9, 9] _09 _ 04 ___111.0 (41) __ DR(S)NO _____________2.49 __ 31.85 _____ 36.0 __ 38.62 mm_ t12_ (t9) ... ... [10,15] _10 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (26) __Mr Maunder __________ 5.34 ___30.69 _____22.0 __ 41.62 mm_ 17_ (26) ... ... [23, 33] _11 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (02) __ Reef ___________________9.81 __ 30.43 _____ 1.0 __ 39.54 mm_ 15 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] (11.8)_(16.4)_59.2 (19.8)___1994-2023 average__6.42__ 29.91 _____15.8 __38.70 mm _13.2_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] _12 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (10) __ dancerwithwings _____8.29 __ 29.80 ____ 9.0 __ 43.62 mm_ 25 _(t39) ... ... [21, 36] (12.2)(20.4)_ 63.2 (12.9)__1991-2020 average__7.74 _ 29.69 ____11.8 __ 39.46 mm_ 14.9 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] (12.8)(21.2) _64.8 (11.4) _ 1981-2010 average _ 8.02__ 29.24 _____10.2 __ 40.58 mm_15.9_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8] _13 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (32) __stewfox ______________ 4.05 __ 29.11 _____30.0 __ 34.38 mm _ 8 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] _14 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (22) __ February1978 ________ 6.01 __ 28.98 _____19.0 __ 38.62 mm_ t12_ (18) ... ... [11, 11] _15 _ 17 ___100.0 (28) __ methuselah __________4.87 __ 28.10 _____25.0 __ 43.34 mm _ 24_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] _16 _ 06 ___130.0 (48) __ Emmett Garland _____1.00 __ 28.07 _____ 55.0 __ 45.22 mm_ 30_ (17) ... ...[17,23] _17 _ 14 ___110.0 (37) __ Frigid ________________ 3.34 __ 27.39 _____35.0 __ 32.82 mm _ 4_ (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] _18 _ 08 ___127.0 (47) __ snowray ______________1.20 __ 26.91 _____ 52.0 __ 41.82 mm _18 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] (19.0)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 5.63 __ 26.60 _____21.5 __ 44.12 mm_27.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5] _19 _ 19 ___108.0 (34) __Metwatch _____________3.73 __ 26.59 _____33.0 __ 40.74 mm_ 16_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] _20 _ 15 ___125.0 (46)^__ Don _________________ 1.10^__25.04 _____50.0 __ 42.22 mm _19_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] _21 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (07) __ The PIT _________________8.95 __ 24.53 _____ 5.0 __ 48.22 mm_ 47_ (62) ... ... [27, t48] _22 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(26.5) __ 34.72 mm _10 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] _23 _ 23 ___110.0 (38) __ jonboy ________________ 3.24 __ 24.18 _____35.0 __ 47.34 mm_ 40 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] _24 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (19) __ weatherforducks ______ 6.76 ___23.79 _____15.0 __ 42.62 mm_t21 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] _25 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (20) __ rwtwm _________________6.39 __ 23.51 _____ 16.0 __ 46.42 mm_ 36_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] _26 _ 26 ___110.0 (36) __ WYorksWeather _______3.44 __ 23.36 _____ 35.0 __ 47.46 mm_ 41 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] _27 _ 20 ___133.0 (51)__I remember Atlantic252__ 0.40 __ 23.17 _____58.0 __ 47.54 mm_ 44_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] _28 _ 27 ___110.0 (35) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______3.54 __ 23.05 _____ 35.0 __ 42.54 mm _20 _ (20) ... .. [40, t26] _29 _ 31 ___104.0 (31) __ Stationary Front _______4.30 ___22.63 ____ 29.0 __ 50.42 mm_ 59 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61] _30 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (25) __ Mulzy __________________ 5.44 __ 22.43 _____ 22.0 __ 48.02 mm_ 46 _ (47) ... ... [32, t46] _31 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (13)^__davehsug ______________ 7.42^__ 22.04 _____12.0 __ 47.02 mm_ 38_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] _32 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (27) ___ summer blizzard ______5.04 __ 22.02 _____22.0 __ 49.02 mm _ 51_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] _33 _ 28 ___113.0 (43) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 2.00 __ 21.20 _____ 38.0 __ 47.82 mm_ 45_(34) ... ... [37, 41] _34 _ 29 ___112.0 (42) __chilly milly ______________ 2.20 __ 21.05 ____ 37.0 __ 42.62 mm_t21_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] _35 _ 22 ___135.0 (52) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.20 __ 20.95 _____60.0 __ 46.22 mm_ 34_ (16) ... ... [30,t20] (35.3)(40.5)_58.4 (20.6) __average of all data ____ 6.28 __ 20.71 _____16.6 __ 47.22 mm _39.0_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(26.5)__ 47.52 mm_ 43 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] _37 _ 37 ___107.0 (33)^__seaside60 _____________ 3.62^__19.62 _____32.0 __ 49.42 mm _ 52_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54] _38 _ 32 ___115.7 (44) __ Roger J Smith __________1.80 __ 19.36 ____ 40.7 __ 47.22 mm_ 39 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] _39 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (16) __ Bobd29 ________________ 7.14 __18.82 _____ 14.9 __ 52.38 mm _65 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] _40 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.34 ___18.59 ____ 14.0 __ 53.02 mm_ 68 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] _41 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(26.5) __ 34.52 mm _ 9 _ (t4) ... ... [45, 10] _42 _ 39 ___130.0 (49) __summer8906 ___________0.90 __15.53 _____55.0 __ 52.82 mm_ 66 _(t39) ... [41, 37] _43 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 _____14.0 __ 57.14 mm_ 71 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69] _44 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (08) __ summer shower ________8.67 __14.92 _____ 8.0 __ 62.18 mm_ 75 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] _45 _ 41 ___131.8 (50) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 0.60 __14.82 _____56.8 __ 48.90 mm _50 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] _46 _ 48 ___100.0 (30) __ syed2878 ______________ 4.67 __14.54 _____25.0 __ 64.22 mm_ 78 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] _47 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (11) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 8.10 __14.40 ____ 10.0 __ 43.82 mm_ 26 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] _48 _ 49 ___100.0 (29) __ Leo97t _________________ 4.77 __14.21 _____25.0 __ 59.22 mm _74 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] _49 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(26.5) __ 44.64 mm _ 29_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] _50 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (26.5) __ 44.12 mm_ 27 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] _51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover __--- --- __12.30 ____ (26.5) __ 42.92 mm _23 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] _52 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (03) __ Neil N __________________ 9.62 __12.21 _____ 2.0 __ 63.42 mm _77 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] _53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__11.18 ____(26.5) __ 52.12 mm_ 64 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] _54 _(50) __120.0 (45) _ B87 _____________________ 1.60 __ 11.00 _____ 45.0 __ 44.60 mm_ 28 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) _55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(26.5) __ 45.32 mm _ 31 _ (33) ... ... [46, 28] _56 _ 62 __ 40.0 (34) __ shillitocettwo _____________3.70 __ 8.94 _____35.0 ___ 65.50 mm _79 _ (72) ... ... [64, 71] _57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____(26.5) __ 49.92 mm_t57 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] _58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (18) __ sunny_vale ________________6.86 __7.10 _____15.0 ___ 49.80 mm_ 56_ (60) _ ... ... ( -- -- ) _59 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____(26.5) __ 46.72 mm_ 37 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32] _60 _(---) ___ 90.0 (17) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 6.96 __ 6.96 _____ 15.0 ___ 46.00 mm _ 33_ (---) ... ... first entry _61 _(---) ___ 92.0 (21) __ Pulpstar _________________ 6.20 __ 6.20 ____ 17.0 ___ 46.40 mm _ 35_ (---) ... ... first entry _62 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (26.5) __ 45.92 mm_ 32_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] _63 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(26.5) __ 54.66 mm_ 70_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] _64 _(---) ___ 96.5 (24) __ Thomas Green __________ 5.63 __ 5.63 _____ 21.5 __ 47.30 mm _ 42 _ (---) ... ... first entry _65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(26.5) __ 48.44 mm_ 49 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40] _66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(26.5) __ 48.32 mm_ 48 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39] _67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(26.5) __ 52.92 mm _ 67 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] _68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(26.5) __ 63.12 mm_ 76 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] _69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(26.5) __ 49.44 mm_ 53_ (48) ... ... [60, 44] _70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(26.5) __ 49.92 mm_t57_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] _71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(26.5) __ 49.52 mm_ 54_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] _72 _ 67 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(26.5) __ 49.76 mm _ 55_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] _73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (26.5) __ 50.92 mm_ 60 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] _74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_ t61_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_t61_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_ t61_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] _77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(26.5) __ 58.32 mm_ 72 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] _78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (26.5) __ 53.46 mm_ 69_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] _79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 78.0 ___ 58.60 mm_ 73_ (---) _ first entry ... -------------------

Yesterday ran into fairly robust records and was below all, next two are a bit easier to crack: 11 Apr 2024 18.3 _____ 13.3 __________ 8.4 CET records: 11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981) 12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49) 13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)

That 11.6 after eight days is now third highest running CET, only lower than 12.0 in 1926 and 11.7 in 2011, fourth place now goes to 1999 at 11.3 ... 2011 takes over the lead from 9th with a tie (1778) on 13 April and a couple of interruptions by 1945 around 18th to 20th. At this point it looks like 2024 could hang around the lead for a while but will eventually fall back into the 10s after possibly reaching 12 C by Friday or Saturday. 2011 only reached 12.0 for running CET values on 24th and 25th. 1945 got close in its brief flare up.

EWP already near 40 mm and suggestions of a similar amount to be added by near end of April, some previous runs were drier (and warmer) than today's run. No new records on Sunday, min of 8.8 was a bit below and other two values (12.1, 15.5) were further below.

You would have to suppose that in late April 1775 one of the nights stayed above 13 C if those daily averages are reliable. I suppose the slow rise in record high minima is due to greater frequencies of clear skies in warmer weather patterns going later into spring? Looking at may, the records don't exceed 14 C very often, and 15.1 on 31st (1895) is highest.

WYorksWeather A record of 12.1 was set on 4 April, 1926. As you mentioned, 12.0 on 6 April 2024 is a new record high min. Previous 10.6 (2014). The daily mean of 14.9 was 0.3 short of record 15.2 (2011) and daily max of 17.7 was well short of 2011's 20.3 C. For fast comparison future records to 13 April: 07 Apr ... 18.5 (1933) ... 14.5 (1859) ... 9.5 (2014) 08 Apr ... 20.5 (1969) ... 13.1 (2020) ... 9.6 (1937) 09 Apr ... 21.5 (2017) ... 13.8 (2017) ... 9.3 (1999) 10 Apr ... 22.1 (2020) ... 14.1 (2020) .. 10.9 (1937) 11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981) 12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49) 13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)

Looks like a temporary peak will occur around 13 or 14 April so for those dates, top running CET values are: YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result 1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 (1945 ____ 9.77 ____ 9.91 ___ ___ 10.1) (1850 ____ 9.75 ____ 9.74 ___ ____ 9.0) (2007 ____ 9.52 ___ 9.86 ____ ___ 11.3) Last three are not next consecutive but of interest.