snowmadchrisuk

Gem was the Model that wouldn't agree with the big 3, when they were showing the Cigar charts . Now it is showing the opposite gives us all faith

yeah but in these situations , features do usually seem to turn up at the last minute , such as secondary lows creeping down the irish sea , polar lows in the north sea , or even lows originating from the azores bumping into the cold air from the SW . as wella s the confection potential with the rather higher than normal ssts .... I never take ppn charts serious out of 48 hrs ...

Well FI sends a SW South East and reloads the pattern , there would be a lot of snow UK Wide if things happened like that ... another stella run .

PV Visits the UK on the Para ,

Longer term , the main difference between the gfs 6z and the 12z , is the 6z weakens the block to our East , where 12z keeps it 1055mb .The longer we can keep that block to our East , the more time we will have for low pressure systems to dig South East and get an eventual retrogression .

Going back to this , As I think what the Models have done is what I spotted on Friday . Them uppers are really building to our South now and any Southerly flow will draw them closer .I am leaning towards a Warm start to May now , let's just hope some Warmer weather get's here in time for the bank holiday .

Sorry Frosty , although I am a fan of your comments , especially in Winter , all I am seeing is the same thing that has happened with Cold shots all winter , it is getting more and more Watered down , and High pressure is moving in from the West. Only good thing I can see is that another Cold spell that could rapidly end up being another hot and Sunny spell , which at this time of year is good, The 6z is starting to look much more like ECM in the reliable .

Well the GFS continues this morning , with what can only be described as the Coldest Northerly for at least a year , and it now creeps further into High Res .Snow even for the South from some of the GFS charts this morning , if it comes off quite a spell for late April..

Ww have had more than 1 failed easterly this season from all models

Well it is looking like this settled spell is now coming to an end , but I have to say for us in the South West it has been the Coldest spell of the Winter so far , Max temps of around 4-7 deg and Fog lasting most of the day . We got one nice day , last Sunday and that was that , Fog and cloud ever since , The difference was sometimes over 15 deg between South East England and South West. Going by current charts , we need better ones than are currently on show to see any meaningful Snow South of the MIdlands , and am also mindful that the P/V energy is still very strong and imagine the Pattern currently shown will end up further East , HP just does not want to establish over Greenland this year . All we can hope is we do not return to a flooding situation .

There is still a fair few ensemble members wanting to bring Colder air in as early as the 15th , I expected them to lessen by now, but if anything signal getting stronger ... Would enjoy the next 5 days as any longer will be a bonus, but needless to say no support for the Warm weather to carry on past 10 days .

Massive dip in the 850's on the GFS Ensembles from Mid Month , many reaching the -10 line again, Remember Northerly's and Easterly's are more common in March / April , so a chance of some late Snow may still be a possibility this year .

Well no comments on the Models , Can see why , settled spell not looking as good this morning , with both GFS and ECM bringing back unsettled conditions. Usually the case as soon as the METO update changes , so do the Models.

I wish the Gem would come on side, It is still insisting this settled spell isn't done and dusted