John Cox

I too was surprised to see this narrative on their website today. I have great respect for their accuracy but just wonder where they got this one today from: "NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing."

I think all are entitled to a sausage or a boom if they produce a chart to back it up. Even though it's 14th January, it's a lovely chart and worth an individuals sausage or a boom. LOL

Never Leave. There is more than one opinion. Just accept that differences happen but people should never fall out, especially over weather

Also for the sake of sanity and as a long time weather chart observer. Try this: Look at any previous run later than 120 hours (and I mean the current previous run at any given time). What do you notice? Totally different. It means, if the current post 120 hours looks crap, the next one will probably look great and visa versa. If a few runs post 120 hours looks similar then maybe we are onto a trend. And if you need a snow fix, my 2 favourite sites are: https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/finland/lapland/santa-claus-village.html https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/finland/lapland/levi-ski-resort.html

Hi Steve, Long time no talk. We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed. One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.

One of these days it will materialise...... Hopefully.... I would love it...but unless it is is 48+ i will not be happy... A long terms watcher and scpetic of long range synoptics.... but is it not nicer to be watching such synoptics rather than raging westerlies.

Looking at GFS 276+ i suspect you + all of us never will.

It's very unusual for the ECM to be predicting a cold spell at this range instead of the GFS. Perhaps a very good signal for cold in mid December

Just so that people don’t become too despondent with the recent ups and downs regarding cold coming and getting snow this winter, I think we just need to step back a little bit and look at the type of synoptics and related weather type we have had since the “beast from the East” arrived last late Feb/early March. Our blisteringly hot summer was based on similar synoptics we are beginning to see now. Yes, we have had some blips with some Westerly incursions of cyclonic weather. Predominately though. we have been influenced by more Northerly/Easterly/Southerly weather synoptics since last March. Where are our regular westerlies that we would normally been getting at this time of the year? Gone. Do they look like coming back in the near/Mid term? No. Maybe i am being overly optimistic, but things to me look different this late autumn. It looks to me very like that the synoptics have a look of late 2010 written all over it.

Steve, thanks for a great topic and detailed opening post. I posted the following comment on an Irish Facebook forum in July. "From what i can see, the same synoptics in general have prevailed since the historic snow storm back at the end of February. In winter this gives snow, in summer sunny and hot. I cannot remember any such prolonged synoptic similarities (easterlies) in all the 40 years i have been weather watching. Is this linked to the slowdown in the North Atlantic drift? This being caused by the speed up in the melting of the Artic ice and Greenland Ice? Could the NAD slowdown be speeding up? We know what this would eventually cause. Perhaps I am being over dramatic. We shall see." I am not there most techical member here and I just have observed the weather for the last 50 years and studied the charts for as long.... and things, i believe, have changed big time since early in the year. I did predict to family members and friends after the Late February and 18th March cold spell that if the weather synoptics continued as they were at that time we would be in for a scorcher of a Summer. The synoptics generally stayed the same and lo and behold the hottest, sunniest and longest Summer came to Ireland this year. Stephen, my technical reasons for the change above may be quite simplistic. I think perhaps, what you have stated in detail may be actually what is taking place. This winter could be facinitating and indeed one to watch, based on your thoughts.

Hi Steve, I never post in Summer but the synoptics are so like Winter... On an Irish Facebook weather channel i posted the following a few days ago: "from what i can see, the same synoptics in general have prevailed since the historic snow storm back at the end of February. In winter this gives snow, in summer sunny and hot. I cannot remember any such prolonged synoptic similarities (easterlies) in all the 40 years i have been weather watching. Is this linked to the slowdown in the North Atlantic drift? This being caused by the speed up in the melting of the Artic ice and Greenland Ice? Could the NAD slowdown be speeding up? We know what this would eventually cause. Perhaps I am being over dramatic. We shall see." Manage I will probably get technically berated but this is my gut feeling. Duck

I understand. Anyone of us could use your data and do some analysis and present. Thanks again. It has been a memorable late winter and this is the time for post mortems

Thank you so much for this report. I note with pleasure 6th Jan 1982 (showing my age). It was my most memorable snow event. You state" A slight trend to more severe weather in 'late winter' is more obvious. The last 10 years now shows this trend extending into March" Have you any information as to why we are generally now having the most cold periods in late winter/early spring?

Here in the East of Ireland this is what our Met people have to say: The snow that’s on its way could be “record breaking” according to RTÉ weather presenter Karina Buckley. Speaking on Liveline in the past few minutes, she said that the previous record snowfall was 49cm in the 1960s. It could reach 50cm tomorrow. This evening they mentioned "copious amounts of snow". I have never heard the word "copious" mentioned with regards to snow here in Ireland.

Yes, it is great, It just keeps snowing and snowing , nearly white out conditions. - 3.6c. -10c wind chill here