Generally best to stick to the operational and control runs when there is higher than normal uncertainty as they are run at higher resolution.
Also an outlier by definition would place the operational run away from the other ensembles, that is not the case here although I agree it is at the bottom of the ensembles in terms of depth of cold for this weekend.
But, yes, caution required as always is the case whenever cold is forecast, it is never straight forward for our little island.