Steve Thexton

Do you ever run your phone on more than 10% Battery, Steve?

Definitely a circulation there over 4hrs

Was on the fells this afternnoon. freezing level much nearer 750metres by end of day with one hell of a wind chill . Evaporative cooling is great.... but then as soon as percipitation eases it all melts in 20 mins!

Well we'll see and no one more than i would like to see you all right, but at at the moment there is nothing like enough embedded cold for a decent snow event without altitude. Of course ... this may just be the start of greater things but the way ALL models have been modelling synoptics beyond around 120hrs no one can reliably say at present. It is good model watching though!!

Think some of the posters on here need to get real. There is nothing like cold enough temperatures in place for any real or lasting snow event. Its getting on for 3 degrees at 80m in south Cumbria at the moment and no chance of snow below 750m in the foreseeable future. get off the happy pills and give yourselves a break- its not going to happen for most!

And however unlikely with reference to that frame, has a far greater probability in being correct than anything modelled in Feb at this point

I suggested something very similar 2 winters ago: |"Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17 Steve Thexton replied to phil nw.'s topic in Model Discussion Archive hahahaha feb1991, you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter. I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous! It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating" I am a long time follower of this thread and although am frequently lost in the technicalities often put forward am incredibly grateful for the time and efforts given by 'some' of the more knowledgeable - cheers guys it is really appreciated by many on here. It does seem 'Timmytour,' that someone has told GFS it's winter and it obliges 3 runs out of 4 dropping deep blues and purples post 240hrs across our neck of the woods because "it's winter" and there's a good chance it should be cold and it obliges! What seems so unfortunate is that so much vitreole can emanate from some on what they seem to perceive as written in stone at 10 days + It would be fascinating to survey the number of posts since 1st November that started, or have the line equal or similar to, - great outputs... "in 10 days time..." Perhaps, if all only looked at all models up to 240hrs the animosity between some and between one model or the other would be a little less tiresome. I will stick my head down now for another couple of years - Happy snowballing!

Thank you Ed, Mike & Mucka, very helpful of you all. Definitely bring it on if it 'accurately' and regularly suggests snow!

FV3?? guys for us mere mortals

Well lets hope so, that would look, 'to me,' like some lovely days all be it a bit chilly first thing in a morning.

hahahaha feb1991, you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter. I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous! It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating