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tropicbreeze

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    Noonamah, Top End NT

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  1. Gabrielle is only a few hours away from Norfolk Is and is likely to make a direct hit. They've already recorded winds of just over 100 kph on the island. Winds at the centre are still at 110 kph, gusting to 155 kph. But strong wind shear and dry air along with lower sea temperatures are causing it havoc. It's likely now that Gabrielle has been "decapitated", the upper circulation separated from the low level circulation. It's still expected to pass over Norfolk Is at the intensity of a Cat 2 TC. Storm force winds (89 kph to 102 kph) extend about 240 kms out from the centre. It'll take a while for this system to blow itself out.
  2. And strangely enough the tropical regions are unusually hot and dry for this time of year (wet season).
  3. Some before and after images off the net of the flooding in south east Australia.. Lismore NSW Gympie Qld
  4. The tropical that crossed into the NT has moved across the continent and out into the Coral Sea where it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Seth. TC Seth is currently moving south south west off the Queensland coast. It's expected to transition into an extratropical low in a few days and drift towards the coast.
  5. It all worked out well. The tropical low was unable to stay out far enough from land to take advantage of the very good conditions for intensification. It's crossed on shore now just bringing widespread rain . Temperatures varied from around 25 to 26 over the 24 hour period, the coldest Christmas day since records began in 1941. Most people were thankful of the colder temperatures for Christmas dinner and the end to the months of heatwave conditions.
  6. Rabbit Flat finally finally totaled 115 consecutive days over 39C before the maximum only managed to get to 38.4C on 26 March.
  7. Rabbit Flat in the NT has broken the Australian record for the most consecutive days over 39C. It's currently 109 days but will likely rise as the heat continues. Darwin could possibly have its driest wet season ever recorded unless it gets another 137mm rain by end of April. With TC Trevor approaching the GOC coastline it's quite possible the monsoon trough could develop over the Top End bringing the required rainfall.
  8. Australia officially moved into spring on 1 September, in the north we've moved into the "build-up", the prelude to the wet season. Unfortunately the long range forecasts have predicted a late start to the wet season. That means without the rains temperatures will rise together with relative humidity and little chance of respite. Unless, of course, you're right on the coast and benefit from any sea breezes when they come in.
  9. The month of May saw the dry season firmly entrench itself in the tropical north. Mid month a massive dry surge brought temperatures down to below average, Darwin Airport recording 7 consecutive days with minimums below 20 (17.9 to 19.8). That's the equal fourth longest run for the month of May. The highest minimum for the month was 25.7. The lowest maximum 30.2, highest maximum 34.9. There was no rainfall recorded in Darwin, however some rain fell along the east coasts of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Another dry surge mid week is expected to drop temperatures below average again. This "roller coaster ride" usually continues over the coming 2 months.
  10. The official Tropical cyclone season is drawing to a close with numbers of cyclones close to average with a possibility that the average might be exceeded before the end. Extract from the Weekly Tropical Climate Note of 27 March 2018: Ten tropical cyclones in Australian region so far this season After a busy week, Australia has now observed ten cyclones during the 2017-18 tropical cyclone season, to date. This is just short of the long-term average number of eleven tropical cyclones per season across the Australian region. The tropical cyclone season runs until 30 April, so there remains a reasonable likelihood of exceeding the average number—something that has not been achieved since 2005-06. Western Australia has seen the majority of tropical cyclones, with the first seven systems of the season affecting that region. The last one, TC Nora, whilst not reaching the east coast caused heavy rain in the area. Port Douglas had 593mm rain in a 24 hour period, several other places in the area had over 300mm in the same period.
  11. Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus has weakened to cat. 3, central pressure 965 hPa, sustained winds 140 kph, gusting to 195 kph. Conditions are becoming less favourable and transition to a low may occur Saturday or Sunday. Ex TC Marcus may just clip the south west tip of Western Australia as it's swept eastwards. The tropical low in the Arafura Sea developed faster than anticipated and is now Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora, cat. 3. Central pressure 963 hPa, sustained winds 150 kph, gusting to 205 kph. Further intensification is likely, to cat. 4 by about mid tomorrow (Saturday). Nora is expected to continue down the west coast of Cape York as a cat. 4 but experiencing some increase in vertical wind shear, interaction with land and possibility of some dry air in the area penetrating the system.
  12. Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus is Cat 5 with central pressure 914 hPa, sustained winds at 230 kph gusting to 325 kph. Glad we were near the starting blocks for this one rather than near the finish. Marcus is curving around to the south and will soon begin to weaken. Another tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea and is expected to develop into a cyclone tomorrow. This system is expected to move south east into the Gulf of Carpentaria and strengthen to Cat 3 by Sunday.
  13. Severe TC Marcus is now cat 5 with sustained winds of 205 kph and gusting to 285 kph. Further intensification is expected before the system starts to curve to the south and run into lower sea surface temperatures and higher vertical wind shear. There is very high rainfall around the system, it will be interesting to see if this will carry through to the south west of WA. It appears that ex-Marcus may cross the coast in the vicinity of Perth.
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