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summer blizzard

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summer blizzard last won the day on August 22 2018

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  1. Just looking at transition speed from those who developed a La Nina as forecast and we're at least moderate at peak. 63/64: +1.4 to -0.6 was 6 months. 73/74: +2.1 to -0.5 was 5 months. 83: +2.2 to -0.5 was 8 months. 87/88: +1.7 to -0.9 was was 9 months. 94/95: +1.1 to -0.5 was 8 months. 97/98: +2.4 to -0.8 was 7 months. 09/10: +1.6 to -0.7 was 6 months. 15/16: +2.6 to -0.5 was 8 months. Closest decline thus far is 1998 and 2016. We are tracking about a month ahead of 98 and 2 months quicker than 16 given the same pace but lower peak. So current tracking suggests 6 months which is at least -0.5 in MJJ. First year Nina's declared by MJJ are 54, 64, 73, 88, 07, 10.
  2. Addicks Fan 1981 Current modelling suggests we flip much quicker and harder. Think 1998 or 2010.
  3. raz.org.rain Probability is not guarantee. I personally do believe that transitions do impact our climate however we must remember that in any given year there is a 33% chance of a cool, warm and near average outcome. That transitions may tip the scales does not mean that the likelyhood falls below say 1 in 5. You would not bet your car on it, but neither would you be shocked.
  4. SqueakheartLW Yes, indeed. While i'd ignore model strength for now as they are poor, the inability of this Nino to form a sustained standing wave means that it appears likely to collapse pretty quickly even if sub-surface SST's are only -2 or so. I think it's more the case that since ~2002 we have arguably been in a multi decadal Nina/-PDO pattern, hence why we are seeing this Nino get sandwitched like 1972 and 2009.
  5. 06MAR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.4, Nino4: 1.1
  6. Derecho Current SSW looks like it won’t downwell enough but we might see a more diluted weakness make it to the troposphere and wave activity can always enhance this. So I’d say we might get an impact but late in the month. Just in time to ruin April perhaps.
  7. Given the change in outlook, do we have any rolling annual precipitation comparisons.
  8. 21FEB2024: Nino3: 1.4, Nino3.4: 1.5, Nino4: 1.2 28FEB2024: Nino3: 1.3, Nino3.4: 1.3, Nino4: 1.1 Feb ONI fell to +1.5. DJF ONI fell to +1.8.
  9. Metwatch Canadian High further east than normal, we might have had more U.K. or Scandi blocking if we had a normal Nino +PNA and Alaskan Low. Likewise, second anomaly with high over Russia results in a cyclone near Greenland and a trough near us. A broadly unkind winter.
  10. 7.3C, 74mm. High pressure to the east, low to the west. Probably more potential for warmth than cold given that it's rare to have a March cooler than Feb and Feb was mild enough that to be warmer is actually quite warm in March. Not especially dry as we may see an undercut attempt or two.
  11. B87 I'd keep March 12. I'd swap for April 07 (it felt a much more impressive month though I'm not sure if that's bourne out by maxima and sunshine). I'd keep March 20. I'd swap for June 18 or 06 (the final third of last June was horrifically humid). I'd swap for July 13. June 18 became humid in the second half. I'd keep August 22.
  12. Better down welling as we head towards mid March on this one. https://twitter.com/MetRyan96/status/1761082180615221332?t=6IU6Ui2A0UAqr3Bc4XD5ZQ&s=19
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