To those fearing a -west based NAO:
Note that a *forecasted* -west based NAO is not the same as a current -west based NAO
I actually prefer to see a -west based NAO forecasted in the models as the majority of the time everything gets shifted east; putting the UK in for a direct hit of the cold.
Nonetheless, model watching next few weeks should be fun and they have definitely sparked my interest for a period of colder weather.
The initial height increase looks too close to our north, which should pull an easterly but conditions look dry.
It’s the retrogression back into Greenland which could be the cherry we’re looking for but that’s 10+ days away…