WYorksWeather The reason I make these bold predictions about heat records is, to use gambling parlance , we are playing with a loaded dice.
I don't expect to reach 12C either this year. The regime we are in right now with all of these wet and cloudy nights leads to very mild 9am/9pm temperatures between Oct-Apr, but we need to lose the low pressure systems after that to get the high CET values.
You can see the high pressure starting to build now to our south and if the jet stream migrates northward, we are at some point going to tap into the heat.
I spent the afternoon at the allotment today and it amazed me to see how quickly the grass dried in the warm, windy conditions.
We could do with more days like today. I'm not a great fan of wind, but I'm even less a fan of muddy, boggy ground.
I will be surprised if we don't get another 11C CET year after the start we have had. It would take a brave person to bet against it now. As your analysis shows, if the mild continues much longer, it becomes odds on.