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Gordon Webb

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    Male
  • Location
    Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Interests
    Eating Food , Playing PC Games
  • Weather Preferences
    Dull And Uninteresting Weather

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  1. your times look wrong 8 and 9 am , that might be the elevated stuff from overnight that may or may not occur , it is another batch that is expected to develop for more n areas in the Afternoon
  2. not so convinced that is so further south , it's for a hour earlier than the met warning , the met also having it moving north and runs this close out should be treated with caution IMO
  3. unusually for the met office these warnings for today and tomorrow actually ties in what is expected
  4. 34c has been mooted but I'd be surprised if it occured , if anywhere has a chance it'll be East Anglia / SE England as they are the only places expected to be or at least forecasted to be dry hot and sunny tomorrow with a lot more cloud and rain/showers/storms elsewhere
  5. hello just an enquiry Convective Weather has been quiet for weeks , just wondering if anything has happened ?
  6. it should be pointed out this is mainly E Midlands Eastwards & SE England and nowhere else
  7. just as well with people back at work after hols and kids back at school and the shorter days , weather like this now is rather academic except possibly for the die-hards
  8. best to make the most of it forecasts suggest it'll be less sunny and a lot colder in about 4.5 billion years
  9. why would you put jumpers and waterproofs on the dog in the first place ? i mean I understand the dog walking through the muddy paths
  10. well for me today is 2 seconds shorter than yesterday and to take from game of thrones - WINTER IS COMING
  11. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2023 ISSUED 06:25 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan Heavy rainfall over Scotland on Monday morning, associated with a pronounced shortwave, will gradually clear northwards trough the day - although there is scope for embedded elevated convection in eastern Scotland, feeding inland from the North Sea. Elsewhere, a bright and breezy day is anticipated underneath a weak, transient upper ridge. That said, diurnal heating will yield 500-900 J/kg MLCAPE over Ireland/Northern Ireland beneath the eastern flank of a cold pool aloft associated with the broad upper low/trough to the west over the Atlantic. As such, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely here, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Showers/storms may become particularly focussed along a couple of marked SW-NE convergence zones, especially from Munster to mid-Leinster and perhaps another from Connacht into Ulster. Modest southwest flow aloft with a unidirectional wind profile will result in 15-20kts effective shear, allowing some cells to become somewhat organised and capable of producing hail potentially 1.0-1.5cm in diameter (sub-severe). The risk of flooding will be augmented by stronger steering flow than recent days, however showers running along any marked CZ may tend to train over similar areas, resulting in locally large rainfall totals. A few showers/thunderstorms may also develop in parts of Scotland during the afternoon and early evening hours as well. For England and Wales, while diurnal heating will lead to increasing instability, forecast profiles reveal substantial subsidence aloft and mid-level capping. It is still plausible a few heavy showers may develop, especially from north Wales and across northern England where a tongue of higher surface dewpoints may exist, although a few odd showers may be possible elsewhere - perhaps also from south Wales and across the Midlands to Lincolnshire. One or two cells may produce a few lightning strikes, but the risk overall is higher in Ireland. If any convection is able to punch higher than the mid-level capping then it may benefit from substantially stronger directional shear given the presence of a jet streak aloft. While showers/storms will tend to decay during the mid-late evening hours, attention then turns to northern France as a shortwave rounding the base of the main upper trough to the west of Biscay engages with the western flank of a relatively high Theta-W airmass over France. The net result is a developing area of showery rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms over the Bay of Biscay during the afternoon hours, moving across the Brest peninsular through the evening hours, this then likely to grow upscale into an area of heavy rainfall across the English Channel and then moving into SW/Cen S England overnight. Exactly how much lightning activity occurs with this feature is uncertain, but there may still be pockets of activity embedded within the broader precipitation shield (perhaps most likely on the eastern flank of precipitation with unimpeded inflow). Additional, more localised elevated showers/thunderstorms will be possible further east along the south coast. The main threat will be the risk of locally high rainfall totals in some southern coastal counties of England, and perhaps also the Channel Islands.
  12. well you know how it is , some forget that the UK goes beyond the SE
  13. updated Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2023 ISSUED 06:44 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan A broad upper low will remain to the west of Ireland on Sunday, with a relatively high Theta-W airmass (>16C at 850hPa) covering much of the British Isles. A shortwave trough migrating northwards on the eastern flank of the upper low may provide the focus for scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms across parts of northern and eastern England on Sunday morning, the focus then shifting to W/SW Scotland by the afternoon. In its wake, a humid airmass persists (dewpoints 17-19C) which, coupled with subtle forcing aloft, could still generate semi-random elevated showers/thunderstorms throughout the morning and early afternoon, this perhaps most likely (but far from guaranteed) over East Anglia/SE England. Depending on the extent of this activity (and associated cloud cover/rain-cooled air), this may have ramifications as to how the rest of the day evolves. Otherwise, fairly extensive high cloud is anticipated across much of England and Wales, but sufficiently thin/broken in places to allow a degree of surface heating through the day. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface temperatures of 21-22C will be required to erode SBCIN, and so given the moist boundary layer it seems plausible scattered showers may develop fairly readily with CAM guidance indicating initiation over the Midlands and southern England from around 11-13z onwards. A weak surface low is expected to develop and slowly deepen over central England during the afternoon, with increasing low-level convergence in the vicinity also aiding forced ascent. Later in the afternoon a more robust vorticity lobe, emanating from NW Iberia early in the morning, will approach southern England and the synoptic scale ascent associated with this will encourage thunderstorms to grow upscale during the late afternoon and evening hours, initially into an MCS across the East Midlands and western East Anglia, but eventually a larger mass of heavy rain over northern England later in the evening. Uncertainty/concerns over how quickly this occurs, given the potential for diminishing lightning activity as rainfall becomes increasingly stratiform, precludes issuing a HIGH threat level. Forecast profiles appear very moist, yielding rather tall but skinny CAPE, which coupled with PWAT 30-40mm and approximately one third of the convective cloud in the >0C layer contributing to efficient warm rain processes, suggests the potential for significant rainfall accumulations - perhaps locally in excess of 40mm in 1 hour. A SVR was issued primarily for the risk of flash flooding (especially where multiple cells train/backbuild over the same area), and to a lesser extent for isolated ≥2cm hail given a favourable kinematic environment for updraft/downdraft separation and cell organisation, with scope for a supercell, this perhaps most pronounced across the north and east Midlands into East Anglia where the low-level winds will be most backed on the north/northeast flank of the surface low. These areas will also have a slightly higher chance of an isolated tornado given substantial low-level directional wind shear and progressively lowering cloud bases through the afternoon. A trailing line of thunderstorms may affect other parts of East Anglia/SE England during the evening hours, linked to a substantial bowing segment that is expected to form over NE France - although much of the lightning activity associated with this feature may remain over France/English Channel. Elsewhere, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Ireland once again, likely already feeding into southern coastal counties in the morning and expanding in coverage further inland/to the northwest with time, where the environment will be supportive of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25kts effective bulk shear. A SVR was introduced here for the risk of isolated large hail 2-3cm in diameter and local surface water flooding. Additional showers/thunderstorms are also likely during the afternoon and evening hours over mid/north Wales, NW England, W and SW Scotland, before these eventually merge into the broader area of heavy rain developing over northern England during the evening/night. Ahead of this feature, it is possible a few elevated showers/thunderstorms could develop over the North Sea and feed into eastern Scotland during the late evening, but confidence on much in the way of lightning with this activity precludes higher threat levels at this stage. Finally, during the overnight period a scattering of showers may feed into Wales and SW England from the Celtic/Irish Seas, perhaps producing the odd isolated lightning strike.
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