Northern Sky

Met4Cast "I can't say I care much for what the det runs show if I'm honest, they could show the next BFTE and feet of snow across the whole of the UK but if it's beyond day 3 it may as well not exist." I think that's fair comment but it's equally applicable to the guidance given by the varied teleconnections this Winter season. I absolutely respect the desire to understand the science behind the weather patterns and the possibilities of using that understanding to predict the conditions on the ground in the micro detail required to forecast the UK weather weeks in advance. But, imo, this Winter has shown us just how far we are still away from being able to do that in any detail relevant to advanced micro scale predictions for the UK. This forum in Winter has varied appeal, with some people having a great interest in the science of weather prediction and others basically interested in when it's going to snow. Most of us fit somewhere inbetween that but personally I've found this a grinding and ultimately unrewarding Winter in terms of the background drivers and long term prediction. The January chase where everything seemed so favourable resulted in a 5/6 day spell of cold weather which usually I would've enjoyed, but given the built up expectations seemed instead to be a major disappointment. (I did still enjoy it though!) I'm done with the long term drivers, this Winter has finished them for me. I don't care what they say for either cold or mild. Next Winter (if I'm still around) I'm just going to to follow the models, and as you say take nothing for granted until it gets within 72hrs.

It snowed pretty much all day in Castleford at work. Didn't settle for a while but started to cover roads after lunchtime. The drive back to Tinshill wasn't too bad but even the main roads were a bit slushy. I was surprised to find that there's not really any more here than there was in Cas. Often we'll have snow here and none in Cas when I get to work. It's been great to see snowfall all day, the trees looked absolutely beautiful on the drive home.

I'm in Leeds 16 (Tinshill). I've got to drive to work in Castleford on Thursday morning. I'm thinking it might be a tricky drive back?

6 days is absolutely miles away from predicting snowfall with any certainty. Has everyone forgotten the snow charts from the last cold spell!? I'm reserving any excitement until I can see it at 72hrs and even then I'm keeping my sceptical hat on. It's not worth the pain of disappointment.

Mike Poole I've been following your updates over the last few days. It seems to me that the signal for some 'potential' cold of some kind is actually counting down roughly as indicated by the eps and 46? Do you see the ECM 240hrs as being consistent with that in terms of synoptic progression and timeline?

On the face of it the second half of the GFS 12Z run is (if you like cold in Winter) unutterably vile. Day after day of temps in the mid teens which would surely be one of the warmest starts to February ever? Let's hope it's way off the mark!

I think a point to recognise is that many people on here hang onto every word that some of our knowledgeable and experienced posters post. Like most of us these people can become excited by the prospects of cold and this can influence the presentation of the evidence. I think it's fair to say that we did see some of these hugely respected posters drop references to iconic past Winters in relation to the signals that presented at the time. For some, all the caveats are dismissed and this could only mean a definite ticket to a Winter wonderland - and inevitably all the despondency that comes with anything less than that. Were those knowledgeable posters wrong to do that given that every word is scrutinised by everyone else? Personally I don't think so - where would be the fun in a dour presentation only in the most certain of outcomes? The vast majority of us look at the models for the love of the chase and the chance of some special Winter weather. I try to tell myself always to keep my expectations to a minimum no matter where the long range models and background signals are pointing. Save the excitement for the short and occasionally medium term outlook and then the disappointments will be kept under control. That's what I tell myself but it doesn't always work!

I'm actually quite glad about that. Chasing a Scandi high almost always ends in disappointment and after counting down this last cold snap for what feels like 3 months I'm not sure I can take it.

In actual cold and snow terms we've had worse Winters here - we had snow early December and a bit this week too. But, in terms of the expectation around the background drivers this seems to be the biggest let down of a Winter I can remember for a long time or possibly ever. If we turn it around does anyone think it's possible we could have all the background drivers pointing to mild and still get cold? Don't bother to reply because I already know the answer

Yes very disappointing to see so much snow so near and yet so far. I've got a day off tomorrow I think a drive to the Dales is in order!

There's always next Winter... I've no idea but I suspect we won't have all the background drivers in our favour next Winter? It would be funny if that were the case and we managed to have a decent cold spell anyway. This chase has been counting down for what seems like weeks and I think the biggest disappointment and problem with it is/was the expectation. The reality should be almost a week of nice Wintry weather - If lucky I might even get a bit of snow here - but even if not, some clear frosty days and blue skies will be very welcome. Ordinarily I'd think that was great (and obviously I'll still enjoy it) but there's no denying it will be slightly tempered by the disappointment of raised expectations that seemed so confident of a special and significant cold spell. Whether those expectations were reasonable or not is for everyone to decide for themselves. It's difficult not to get carried away in the excitement but personally I think it's another lesson in keeping expectation on a very tight leash. Whatever the background drivers say the most important thing for many of us is the reality of the weather in the UK. Accurately predicting that on the micro scale is still hugely problematic beyond a few days. Look at the background drivers as offering possibilities and save the real excitement for the near term - easier to say than do I know!

I don't think the 06z GFS will factor much in their forecasts, especially not anything after 144hrs. I think it's fair to say that the general outlook across the models looks messy but cold though.

I'm sat in West Yorkshire and looking at the charts it looks like the snow will be to the south of us. Given that the models often correct southwards nearer the time then my optimism is even further diminished.

I think we got lucky but this cold spell will have to go some to beat Jan 21 in my location, which saw 2 great snowfalls - followed by another on Feb 2nd. Looking at the models this morning I can understand the worries of some in the far south as it's very fine margins with many runs to go before the cold arrives and therefore opportunities for the cold to move incrementally further north. Here's hoping it goes the other way and we can see some cold and snow for all.

I'm starting to think I prefer cold spells that seem to spring out of nowhere at the end of op runs. Feels like we've been counting this down for weeks and still the pain goes on. It's exhausting