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Storm Imogen


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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

What kind of rainfall totals are we expecting from Imogen, I would think that being on the colder side of the jetstream means less tropical moist air being available so not so bad? ?

 

The rivers in the East Midlands are all in flood after the last two days rain, Soar , Avon , Nene and Trent all on red boards now.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Just on the edge of things here a shift south would take us out of it a twitch north and then fully in it.

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Posted
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire
1 hour ago, matty40s said:

What kind of rainfall totals are we expecting from Imogen, I would think that being on the colder side of the jetstream means less tropical moist air being available so not so bad? ?

 

The rivers in the East Midlands are all in flood after the last two days rain, Soar , Avon , Nene and Trent all on red boards now.

Hi Matty. I don't think the rainfall totals that are predicted to accompany Imogen are going to be too troublesome as the attached charts display. That being said, they will have an acculumative affect on already sodden ground and high river levels.....going to be an interesting day, that's for sure! 

arpegeuk-1-24-0.png

arpegeuk-1-30-0.png

arpegeuk-1-36-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

The super duper high-res MF AROME has been made available on Meteociel  - at 1.3kms - it is very detailed but not necessarily any more accurate.

At 31 hours, wind gusts for the south of the UK.

aromehd-11-31-1.png?07-12

 

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=31

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
6 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The super duper high-res MF AROME has been made available on Meteociel  - at 1.3kms - it is very detailed but not necessarily any more accurate.

At 31 hours, wind gusts for the south of the UK.

aromehd-11-31-1.png?07-12

 

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=31

Wow, that's impressive! Unfortunately, it seems to be underestimating the wind speed a little bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
2 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

There is a bit of a difference to recent storms as the wind is more westerly than south or south westerly which will mean more damage to trees. Trees grow to cope with the prevailing wind and the more westerly component will mean greater twisting effect. Expect to see more branches and trees down than in recent storms.

Exactly. That's why we're moving all our cars out of the way of our 100 - 200 year old Oak trees which are too the west of the cars. If a limb falls off one of them onto one of our cars it will be a total right off.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
7 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The super duper high-res MF AROME has been made available on Meteociel  - at 1.3kms - it is very detailed but not necessarily any more accurate.

At 31 hours, wind gusts for the south of the UK.

aromehd-11-31-1.png?07-12

 

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=31

Doesn't look too bad on the AROME, maybe underplaying wind speeds a tad? Very windy north Cornwall and through the Bristol channel but only 50mph or so inland, it may be right. Nice detailed charts though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Has storm Imogen actually been named? The Met Office website has nothing on its page yet. Although it certainly warrants a name.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Has storm Imogen actually been named? The Met Office website has nothing on its page yet. Although it certainly warrants a name.

The Irish Met Office named it yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The Irish Met Office named it yesterday. 

Ah I see. Seems to be a bit haphazard with the namings at times.

Certainly going to be the strongest storm of the season for inland southern England anyway, should be an interesting night/Monday!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Has storm Imogen actually been named? The Met Office website has nothing on its page yet. Although it certainly warrants a name.

Yes it has been named.

image.thumb.jpeg.e36e943cfdfdff0b1f892f5

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary, except extreme heat
  • Location: South Ockendon, Essex
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Ah I see. Seems to be a bit haphazard with the namings at times.

Certainly going to be the strongest storm of the season for inland southern England anyway, should be an interesting night/Monday!

Certainly Louise Lear called it Imogen on the BBC forecast I caught this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Ah I see. Seems to be a bit haphazard with the namings at times.

Certainly going to be the strongest storm of the season for inland southern England anyway, should be an interesting night/Monday!

I take back all my statuses saying "Why can't we get a proper storm?" and getting frustrated. Maybe tomorrow will deliver what all us high wind enthusiasts want who live in Southern England! Come on guys! Here we go!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Just now, William Grimsley said:

I take back all my statuses saying "Why can't we get a proper storm?" and getting frustrated. Maybe tomorrow will deliver what all us high wind enthusiasts want who live in Southern England! Come on guys! Here we go!

I've been on the phone to Network Rail a lot the past few days warning of the worst winds over Devon and Cornwall so you should get your wish!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I take back all my statuses saying "Why can't we get a proper storm?" and getting frustrated. Maybe tomorrow will deliver what all us high wind enthusiasts want who live in Southern England! Come on guys! Here we go!

As a high wind enthusiast you would've wet yourself with excitement if you were in Lerwick when storm Gertrude blasted through lol, hurricane force winds, red warning & gusts 90-100mph, 105mph top gust! 

gert1.thumb.jpg.a64c4831ed8c5237e9e0c352

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

I hope you are being careful what you wish for down there in the SW UK. I was out of my bed between 0200 and 0400 last night because the rain and wind were so fierce here in Limousin and it was nothing named or significant. I am a great believer in sleep hygiene - and one of the principles is that you don't just lie there when you can't sleep because your bed then gets associated with lack of sleep! Complicated but great physiological and psychological backing.

That aside. it looks a wild one for you folks. Stay safe.

Nice almost thundery showers here in central France, getting very dark ATM so I'm expecting a deluge.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Imogen is now currently a mature Atlantic depression with a central pressure of 956mb, she'll be starting to fill slowly now as she approaches the UK. 

This was Imogen during the early hours of Sunday, if she was hitting the UK in this state then we'd be talking some very impressive gusts & poss red warnings for some. 

imo2.thumb.PNG.ddda45083bbf03c7f7a8c3c02imo4.thumb.png.9303ceca5c2c493d2af6be71b

Current analysis & latest satellite image of her. 

imo.thumb.gif.2f100230d32e3fa7baed8ae629imo1.thumb.PNG.db07c3e00e6d2564afeb44bd1

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
24 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

As a high wind enthusiast you would've wet yourself with excitement if you were in Lerwick when storm Gertrude blasted through lol, hurricane force winds, red warning & gusts 90-100mph, 105mph top gust! 

gert1.thumb.jpg.a64c4831ed8c5237e9e0c352

Haha, I certainly would of done! If only that was down here!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
14 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I hope you are being careful what you wish for down there in the SW UK. I was out of my bed between 0200 and 0400 last night because the rain and wind were so fierce here in Limousin and it was nothing named or significant. I am a great believer in sleep hygiene - and one of the principles is that you don't just lie there when you can't sleep because your bed then gets associated with lack of sleep! Complicated but great physiological and psychological backing.

That aside. it looks a wild one for you folks. Stay safe.

Nice almost thundery showers here in central France, getting very dark ATM so I'm expecting a deluge.

Woah, that's being incredibly OTT. I've learnt to not associate things with other things but yes, if the wind and rain was very severe I would obviously investigate and no just lie there. lol

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

What are we thinking for the London / Essex border area for tomorrow's gusts?  Met Office wind map seems to think 60-70mph but most of the graphs only indicate about 50-55mph max.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
3 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

What are we thinking for the London / Essex border area for tomorrow's gusts?  Met Office wind map seems to think 60-70mph but most of the graphs only indicate about 50-55mph max.

The Met Office wind gust map also showing 50-55mph gusts inland, 60-70mph along the exposed south coast where the amber warning is in force.

imo5.thumb.PNG.7beeb1fde9cb83baa876d3b65

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

 The Met Office wind gust increase showing 50-55mph gusts inl and, 60-70mph along the exposed south coast where the amber warning is in force.

imo5.thumb.PNG.7beeb1fde9cb83baa876d3b65

But the dividing line map suggests 60-70Mph gusts as far inland as the Thames Estuary and the surrounding suburbs.

Dark threatening clouds gathering as I speak and wind starting to increase!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
1 minute ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

But the dividing line map suggests 60-70Mph gusts as far inland as the Thames Estuary and the surrounding suburbs.

Dark threatening clouds gathering as I speak and wind starting to increase!

I guess they will be the max gusts likely in that area which may be near the coasts and not representative that all locations will see gusts that high? Be easier than putting dividing lines all over the map with all the different wind gusts for certain locations, maybe a bit misleading? 

Best using higher res models now it's within range vs lower res larger grid points of the GFS etc which won't be able to take into account local topography for example.  

High res NetwX-SR gusts charts. 

net1.thumb.png.45f9ff1c5ac2f47abcc576273net2.thumb.png.a605270a1f422bf4f0a8ccbb6net3.thumb.png.cbfb59713e728ba419a8b1af3

 

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