SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

[Bristawl Si]

Agreed HP.

[cheese]

25 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Indeed he has been and if any potential businesses are looking for a reliable LRF then they should be banging Ian's door down and offering him a contract

What really stands a out is the fabled SSW which was touted by many individuals/organisations to occur either mid January or February, the exception being Ian who gave his reason as to why he didn't expect one. The rest is history and from here on there's only one chaps forecasts I'll be taking on board in future.

Until one of his forecasts goes down the pan and everyone turns their back on him because he got something wrong once.. people should be wary about placing people on a pedestal because they have had a lucky run of success. I do not wish to besmirch Ian or his forecasts but ultimately he is an amateur forecaster, and putting greater faith in a random person over a leading meteorological organisation seems incredibly naive and silly to me.

We'll see what actually happens come spring, but using definitive statements like 'certainly' isn't the kind of language a professional would use while making a forecast. You can have a reasonable degree of confidence, but you can never say with certainty that something will happen (unless it's, you know, the sun will rise tomorrow).

Edited February 6, 2016 by cheese

[lassie23]

I have been following your weather predictions since your winter forecast back in 2013/2014 and your accuracy has been impressive. You were the only one to predict the non stop barrage of winter storms during that period. I will continue to read your forecasts from now on, you tell people what you think will happen and not what will be popular for them to hear, or for you to post, which unfortunately is why you still don't get the credit you deserve on net weather, whilst others continue to be idolized for continuous way off the mark predictions.  I have to agree with others, if your spring forecast is also accurate, you should become the netweather seasonal forecaster. Keep up the good work.

[karyo]

20 hours ago, Backtrack said:

"May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly"

Ah. So you write for the express. Can I borrow your crystal ball? I'd like to check the lottery numbers whilst I'm forecasting 15 weeks ahead. 

Stupid comment! If you have nothing constructive to say then don't post!

[karyo]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I have been following your weather predictions since your winter forecast back in 2013/2014 and your accuracy has been impressive. You were the only one to predict the non stop barrage of winter storms during that period. I will continue to read your forecasts from now on, you tell people what you think will happen and not what will be popular for them to hear, or for you to post, which unfortunately is why you still don't get the credit you deserve on net weather, whilst others continue to be idolized for continuous way off the mark predictions.  I have to agree with others, if your spring forecast is also accurate, you should become the netweather seasonal forecaster. Keep up the good work.

You have nailed it!

The netweather forecasts are always fun to read but that's the best part of them and then everything goes downhill. Predicting stratospheric warmings and cold hearted winters that don't materialise and then pushing the goal posts back until we all realise nothing is going to happen.

Karyo

[John Badrick]

21 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

"May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly" ....

.... is a very definitive statement: one that reputations are lost or won on. Personally, I think it is best to keep things vague as we've already seen the repercussions from PR disasters like the UKMO BBQ summer. Even our own GP was a little rash with his torpedo statement.

 

 

I find it quite exciting and refreshing that Netweather has found a forecaster who is proving to be very accurate and is willing to share his thoughts with us 

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

You have nailed it!

The netweather forecasts are always fun to read but that's the best part of them and then everything goes downhill. Predicting stratospheric warmings and cold hearted winters that don't materialise and then pushing the goal posts back until we all realise nothing is going to happen.

Karyo

I take it you don't read them in full then, As the last time i looked it was packed full of information/stats to back up thoughts as to why they conclude year in/out. It will take a whole lot more than that ^ for you to try and draw any kind of realistic divide between forecast in question.  

Edited February 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

You have nailed it!

The netweather forecasts are always fun to read but that's the best part of them and then everything goes downhill. Predicting stratospheric warmings and cold hearted winters that don't materialise and then pushing the goal posts back until we all realise nothing is going to happen.

Karyo

You criticise Backtrack (rightly) for his comments, and then immediately come out with this? How have Ed & Tony pushed the goal posts back? They made a prediction, it didn't go entirely to plan, but there has been no fudging going on.

[Hocus Pocus]

24 minutes ago, Nick L said:

You criticise Backtrack (rightly) for his comments, and then immediately come out with this? How have Ed & Tony pushed the goal posts back? They made a prediction, it didn't go entirely to plan, but there has been no fudging going on.

To be fair it wasn't even in the same ballpark Nick, that's no besmirch on Ed &Tony they made a forecasts and it was wrong which they freely admit. It's lessons learnt from mistakes that count and I'm sure they both have and will come back all the better for it.

[Nick L]

Just now, Hocus Pocus said:

To be fair it wasn't even in the same ballpark Nick, that's no besmirch on Ed &Tony they made a forecasts and it was wrong which they freely admit. It's lessons learnt from mistakes that count and I'm sure they both have and will come back all the better for it.

Absolutely. But to suggest they've shifted the goalposts is very unfair I think. I'll leave it anyway as it's not the thread for it, but it was completely uncalled for.

[johnholmes]

just for folk to check what the Net Wx winter forecast really said, link below

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

What was wrong with December to the  folks being critical?

January was obviously wrong, so 1 out 0f 2 so far.

February has yet to show what that result will be.

I have no doubt that both will already be looking at what went right and what went wrong so far, and again come the 1 March. One learns as one goes along and full credit to those on Net Wx over the last few years who have attempted to give a balanced view of what winter may show.

[karyo]

30 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I take it you don't read them in full then, As the last time i looked it was packed full of information/stats to back up thoughts as to why they conclude year in/out. It will take a whole lot more than that ^ for you to try and draw any kind of realistic divide between forecast in question.  

It was packed full of information and the effort involved is commendable but the forecast was already dead in the water in December! The winter forecast was made in late November and said December was going to be a typical UK fair. As we all know it has broken all records!

You can spend three hours reading all the analysis but that doesn't make it better when it is completely wrong!

[karyo]

37 minutes ago, Nick L said:

You criticise Backtrack (rightly) for his comments, and then immediately come out with this? How have Ed & Tony pushed the goal posts back? They made a prediction, it didn't go entirely to plan, but there has been no fudging going on.

The SSW forecast was pushed back!

[cheshire snow]

Getting a bit confused here.

is this the Spring 2016 Thread,or the Lets blame everyone for getting a winter

LRF Wrong

C.S

Edited February 6, 2016 by cheshire snow

[Liam J]

12 minutes ago, karyo said:

It was packed full of information and the effort involved is commendable but the forecast was already dead in the water in December! The winter forecast was made in late November and said December was going to be a typical UK fair. As we all know it has broken all records!

You can spend three hours reading all the analysis but that doesn't make it better when it is completely wrong!

Have you even bothered to read the forecast?? December was very unsettled with flooding & above average temperatures which was all mentioned in the December forecast unless I'm reading something completely different to you? Since when did weather forecasting become a fact of what is 'certainly' going to happen for a given date time & location in the future? 

 

[Polar Maritime]

41 minutes ago, karyo said:

It was packed full of information and the effort involved is commendable but the forecast was already dead in the water in December! The winter forecast was made in late November and said December was going to be a typical UK fair. As we all know it has broken all records!

You can spend three hours reading all the analysis but that doesn't make it better when it is completely wrong!

There forecast was written/mused up during October/November, Not mid-December like some in question. Completely wrong?  Like i say read the full LRF.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

There forecast was written/mused up during October/November, Not mid-December like some in question. Completely wrong?  Like i say read the full LRF.

Are you referring to Ian's post in the seasonal forecast thread? He clearly explained that he didn't do an LRF this year and that post outlined his thoughts for the rest of the winter which were spot on!

Why are you even bringing this up? He was not employed by anybody to do an LRF and he didn't have to do it. He posts his forecasts for free!

[Polar Maritime]

So why compare them? It's pretty clear from where im sitting, And im certainly not going to go round and round on the subject so im out 

Edited February 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[lassie23]

7 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

There forecast was written/mused up during October/November, Not mid-December like some in question. Completely wrong?  Like i say read the full LRF.

To be fair to Iapennell Polar Maritime, he was late this winter but the previous two winters he put his forecasts out earlier and still trumped everyone. Be it net weather,  or anyone else who attempted a winter forecast. So credit where credit is due I think. Net weather got a few months correct in the last three years, but what people are trying to say on here is that Iapennell has been far more accurate than anyone, not just net weather and if his spring forecast is also correct then he is the best LRF we have. It is not a competition, but when someone gets three years in a row forecast accurately, then they should be commended. Roll on spring and March/April snow...........for some, probably not me down south.

[Weather-history]

27 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Have you even bothered to read the forecast?? December was very unsettled with flooding & above average temperatures which was all mentioned in the December forecast unless I'm reading something completely different to you? Since when did weather forecasting become a fact of what is 'certainly' going to happen for a given date time & location in the future? 

 

The graphic for December is confusing the issue. It  states that average rainfall for Scotland. Infact it was record breaking wet month. Wetter than average for the rest of country but actually it was average for central and SE parts of England.

Rainfall wise it hasn't done well, it certainly not going to be average rainfall wise for the winter.

[johnholmes]

I do wonder how folk appear to love having a dig. At the end of it all forecasting is a wonderful art based on science. Unless a forecast leads to injury or death then so what. Some forecasts, believe it or not can have very serious implications believe me, I've been there.

[Hocus Pocus]

It matters not that Ian's forecasts was late this winter and he did explain why. The simple fact is that his forecasts are superior to anyone else's out there from what I've seen, by superior I mean the end result and thats what a forecasts should be judged on after all.

[lassie23]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do wonder how folk appear to love having a dig. At the end of it all forecasting is a wonderful art based on science. Unless a forecast leads to injury or death then so what. Some forecasts, believe it or not can have very serious implications believe me, I've been there.

 

Well that's the whole point, he warned us of the severity of the winter of 2013/2014 but was largely ignored in favour of other over hyped forecasts. Could you imagine how helpful his forecast could have been to the UK government. Instead of stocking up on rock salt for the big freeze winter, they could have put in plans for mass flooding and damaging gales instead, difficult to plan for agreed, but the country was knocked for six by the unexpected weather events.

[Norway Nut]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do wonder how folk appear to love having a dig. At the end of it all forecasting is a wonderful art based on science. Unless a forecast leads to injury or death then so what. Some forecasts, believe it or not can have very serious implications believe me, I've been there.

Hi John,

I think you have hit the nail on the head by saying that weather forecasting is an"ART based on science" . Mind you, that takes nothing away from people who make an attempt to forecast. It takes knowledge and guts to attempt one - even a broad brush one.

Perhaps what we need on this site is an ongoing competition whereby a date is selected at a months distance and all forecasts ( temp and wind vector) for a specific weather station ( for confirmation purposes) need to be in at least 3 weeks before the date selected.  I doubt many would attempt it though.

There are no weather gods or weather prophets on this site - only forecasters and others.

[A.J]

I've got to say, amongst some very good and informative posts, there is some absolute tosh from the usual suspects......I take my hat off to ALL those who attempt seasonal forecasts and give in depth analysis, be it, the met office forecasters, the NW forecasts and other independent forecasters such as Ian Pennell....I would say to the usual suspects, stop your moaning and your stirring, if you think you can do bettr, then be my guest....until such time, wind your necks in!

Edited February 6, 2016 by ajpoolshark