South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[Lampostwatcher]

Are we ready for winter It's on it's way according by the latest BBC forecast lamppost at the ready for Sunday night 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Lampostwatcher

[Flash Elvis]

5 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Are we ready for winter It's on it's way according by the latest BBQ forecast lamppost at the ready for Sunday night 

BBQ Forecast... 

[chionomaniac]

Liking the fact that the cold air is further south on this latest GFS run. With precipitation around we may see some cold rain or even snow. Blimey

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Possible... The flow would push the PPN well inland given it looks quite strong, the only down side is ideally for a decent streamer you want -10 - -15 uppers a rare sight I know...  -7 to -9 would do it JUST

The ECM precip charts have been quite consistent with heaviest precip through the mouth of the river affecting S Essex, N/NW Kent & Greater London. I suspect there will be convection firing off from the Estuary....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The ECM precip charts have been quite consistent with heaviest precip through the mouth of the river affecting S Essex, N/NW Kent & Greater London. I suspect there will be convection firing off from the Estuary....

mmmm maybe im deffo not saying it won't.. Next week looks more interesting..

 

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

At the moment Sunday night into Monday morning seems to offer the best potential with the greatest instability and a finger of 850s of around -8C around this time.

There could also be further showers on Monday but with pressure building I suspect this risk area would subside to leave just coastal areas of East Anglia and perhaps the whole of Kent again if the wind has an east of north vector to it.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

At the moment Sunday night into Monday morning seems to offer the best potential with the greatest instability and a finger of 850s of around -8C around this time.

There could also be further showers on Monday but with pressure building I suspect this risk area would subside to leave just coastal areas of East Anglia and perhaps the whole of Kent again if the wind has an east of north vector to it.

It does look very marginal to me, Cap. Let's just hope that some folks see some of the white stuff!

[lassie23]

I'm expecting downgrades to begin soon. Never trust weather models bearing gifts more than five days out.

[Flash Elvis]

I shall wait until the lamp post tells me...... far far to marginal to get excited me thinks....... but I have been proved wrong on the odd  very rare occasion.

[Snoopie42]

26 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

I shall wait until the lamp post tells me...... far far to marginal to get excited me thinks....... but I have been proved wrong on the odd  very rare occasion.

Think that's probably best Elvis, let's wait and see what happens.....We all know that snow is hard to forecast even upto 6/12 hours prior to any event.....word of caution, don't go into the MOD thread, lots of wrist slashing in there! Very depressing!

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Think that's probably best Elvis, let's wait and see what happens.....We all know that snow is hard to forecast even upto 6/12 hours prior to any event.....word of caution, don't go into the MOD thread, lots of wrist slashing in there! Very depressing!

Blimey! I wasn't expecting the downgrades to happen that soon. Total waste of time looking at every run and taking it literally, the models have been all over the shop all winter. Maybe the MOD thread should be closed down until the models learn to behave

[Snoopie42]

20 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Blimey! I wasn't expecting the downgrades to happen that soon. Total waste of time looking at every run and taking it literally, the models have been all over the shop all winter. Maybe the MOD thread should be closed down until the models learn to behave

Absolutely, I will get you to pop next door and suggest just that LOL....In fact in the short term, I.e. This weekend, as far as I can see it's an upgrade for snow in some parts of our region from earlier runs?

The desperation next door is all about next Wednesday / Thursday which has downgraded (one run only), which at 5 days away was always likely to change, for better or worse....It still may do. Really frustrates me that we are getting the cold in, and rather than see what transpires in the here and now, people start looking for the breakdown or get excited by synoptics in FI, forgetting what's on the or doorstep!  It's only one run.......

[Essexgooner]

I see the model forum has gone into meltdown as they have fallen yet again for believing what the charts were churning out 5-7 days in advance, lol, when will they ever learn ! 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Essexgooner

[Snoopie42]

Would also like to add that whilst I would love to get some snow, if I don't, and some of you lovely people get a covering I would be as equally happy for you. I can get to most places in our region within 2 hours, therefore, not a problem if I feel I need to see some snow. Therefore, if any on here are lucky enough to get what has so far eluded most this winter, let me know, get the coffee on or beers out as I maybe paying your towns, villages or cities a visit....If the roads have been gritted that is! 

[alexisj9]

Blimey ITV meridian forecast was grim, thay had the easterly but forecast rain even on sunday and monday lol. Temps maxing at about 8. Today's high was only 5.6. I doubt it's supposed to get warmer. I don't believe for a second the forecast temps.

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Are we ready for winter It's on it's way according by the latest BBC forecast lamppost at the ready for Sunday night 

Could you elaborate on this? 

An upgrade for the immediate future colder 850's further south I reckon the chilterns may get a light covering.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

25 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Would also like to add that whilst I would love to get some snow, if I don't, and some of you lovely people get a covering I would be as equally happy for you. I can get to most places in our region within 2 hours, therefore, not a problem if I feel I need to see some snow. Therefore, if any on here are lucky enough to get what has so far eluded most this winter, let me know, get the coffee on or beers out as I maybe paying your towns, villages or cities a visit....If the roads have been gritted that is! 

Pick me up on the way?  Lol

[Snoopie42]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Pick me up on the way?  Lol

No problem Surrey, I know Staines well as we have a Regional office on the Causeway, your only 20 min away! LOL

[Blessed Weather]

Some great posts in here today. But what a thoroughly disappointing day for model watching!

The Arpege model has been quietly back-tracking on the amount of snow we will see in our Region in the near term. Here's the latest chart for the amount of snowfall expected up to Mon 15th 23.00. 

Arpege 12z  

Meanwhile the GFS 12z has completely backed away from a stalling front over us next Thurs, held back by very cold air and promising a decent snow event for our Region.

My goodness, this is one hell of a frustrating winter!!!

[Jo S]

im so glad you guys look at the charts, maps etc, and relay all of it back, i need laymens  terms as i dont understand any of it, unless you say, its going to snow,be cold etc, ,sorry  i can dig trenches,wallpaper,lay flooring, etc, but dont understand much of this, i try, cant find the map of England half of the time, sorry but im a thicko at this 

[Daniel*]

I'm dubious about it being sealed deal yet. Such swings in the last 24 hours infers little confidence. 

[snowfish1]

It's absolutely ridiculous even on an easterly or North easterly it's taken so long to materialise that the cold is no longer there to tap into so damned frustrating consequently even though it's colder it's falling as rain and cold rain at that gggrrrrr

Edited February 12, 2016 by snowfish1

[pegg24]

I take what they say on the model forum with a pinch of salt . what I don't get is this time was the bbc that said on their twitter risk of disprutive snow next wed thursdsy.  Now they even say there selves we can't predict this far in advance re snow. So why did they predict something a week out.

Edited February 12, 2016 by pegg24

[Snoopie42]

50 minutes ago, Jo S said:

im so glad you guys look at the charts, maps etc, and relay all of it back, i need laymens  terms as i dont understand any of it, unless you say, its going to snow,be cold etc, ,sorry  i can dig trenches,wallpaper,lay flooring, etc, but dont understand much of this, i try, cant find the map of England half of the time, sorry but im a thicko at this 

Jo, stay with us and you will learn! There are a lot of knowledgeable and more importantly, friendly people on this thread....Im the later not the former, but I'm trying, however, it takes a lot of time and more than anything a passion for all types of weather....nature is an amazing force! Tell us more about the trenches?  i intrigued! 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

1 hour ago, pegg24 said:

I take what they say on the model forum with a pinch of salt . what I don't get is this time was the bbc that said on their twitter risk of disprutive snow next wed thursdsy.  Now they even say there selves we can't predict this far in advance re snow. So why did they predict something a week out.

I keep seeing the BBC tweet referenced but missed it myself! Did they say disruptive widespread snow? Or could they have been referring to the usual suspects?