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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Some recent banter posts have been removed.Use the correct thread for those please guys.

Ta:)

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

fair point Phil, though those who think charts like this- ukgust.thumb.png.6b5fb853d5a4e22f00e2888

are "nothing of note" need a little reality check....

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Thanks  nick and si   certainly does look quite nasty.   up north it would be just a breeze i expect   but that would be quite substancial here

 

As has been mentioned,the ECM windspeed charts on Meteociel are for 850 hpa which is about 5,000 ft up,but still give a good indication of the areas where the ground level winds will be highest.

 

The ensemble mean for day 6  850  winds seems to indicate a stormy monday for southern parts especially.

EDM4-144.thumb.GIF.946221666612cfff2e70a

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Sticking to the reliable - very unsettled to sum it up with a strong Jetstream sending low pressure our way and the trough becoming unstuck again, as it has all winter, refusing to move eastwards quickly. So plenty of wind and rain, temps generally mild especially in the south, nearer average in the north with hill snow at times. All rather standard stuff for the time of year, but there is a chance of some quite nasty conditions developing over the weekend in terms of wind.

Longer term - the trough looks like finally moving eastwards opening up a window for a cold blast from the NW or possible North, increasing the chances of wintry conditions especially in the north with frost returning. Indeed very similar set up to what we saw in Jan, with the cold spell coming on the back of the trough finally shifting to the east on the 14 Jan with a more settled colder spell thereafter.

Whilst the winter so far has been preety miserable if you like snow and cold, especially in the south, it has been far from uninteresting, no stubborn high pressure just drifting around doing nothing, the type that brings 'faux cold' some like to call it, or just cloudy conditions with average temps,  but I must admit it has been awful here in terms of flooding events.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

storm still there  mmmmmm

ECM1-144 (1).GIF

I thought that you posted the 18z gfs at 144 hrs there for a second WP :rofl:

heres the gfs at 144 hrs

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.46b5823db76a1701ac35

now which one will be right?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I thought that you posted the 18z gfs at 144 hrs there for a second WP :rofl:

heres the gfs at 144 hrs

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.46b5823db76a1701ac35

now which one will be right?

 

bloody computers   earlier on the gfs 120

gfs-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

That would be quite a storm on tonight's GFS, let's hope it changes tomorrow for something less severe.

I hope GFS FI is onto something and the models start elongating low pressure systems instead of sending bowling ball lows at us as it would give opportunity for something quieter and colder to build in.

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

bloody computers   earlier on the gfs 120

gfs-0-120.png

Oh! i missed that one due to celebrating the man u win over stoke:)

t180 looks a tad breezy too when i head for cumbria on the 10th,i must say(imby),i am liking that chart,snow a def up there,although things can and will change at that range

gfs-0-180.thumb.png.3d878e908a0911307c9egfs-2-180.thumb.png.7c21645417f31129c56fgfs-1-180.thumb.png.10296f4b135eb5c84ebc

look to the NE in low res:)

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spellcheck
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

One things for sure. ..

The Anti-just went 'up' for potential of thermodynamics,  in favour of cold evolution. 

@eastern seaboard (western view)..usa. its twitch and turn with any Amplification! However a distinctive south diving jet (jet stream)  aid's in fluctuations of thermodynamics. .not yet modelling' for given input values (evolution) jet 'ridden' America's polar push of hyper Lp independent. .creative named storms'.are in value and'aid of combat creative polar vortex disturbance. .leave the mortal Canadian lobe to vexx' and mastermind its own dimmise! and-for the deviant amplification @-east-american seaboard/via Greenland tip' have the tin opener effective. ...Some of the most 'ear pricking' modelling I've seen thus far. Back-ended. .is the thought! !!

gfsnh-0-216-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In an effort to find a window of opportunity the overall USA set up expected of amplified trough in the east and ridge in the west is one which can deliver something wintry to the UK if we could see a bit more amplitude in the Atlantic area.

The movement of the MJO could see more amplitude develop in the west Atlantic. Theres still divergence between the models especially with the GEFS which is reluctant to move this through the phases.

NCEP have however effectively disregarded the GEFS and have based their  forecast on the ECM:

Dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index support an increase in amplitude of the MJO but differ on its eastward propagation. The favored ECMWF model solution, which had better forecast skill with the previous MJO event during December 2015 through early January 2016, indicates that a strengthening MJO propagates east across the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Beyond Week-2, the monthly ECMWF model solution on January 29 predicts a robust MJO signal with eastward propagation across the Pacific Ocean.

We'll have to see whether the outputs can find something that includes a bit more snow and less rain over the coming days!


 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
9 hours ago, pdiddy said:

There's a lot of IMBYism going on here... Central Scotland has had 80mph winds twice in the last week, but we should now get excited because it's the South?

Anyway, back on topic, jet sinks further South, models twitching about the SSW and the MetO talking of a colder spell mid-month.  Models also showing some more wet and windy weather to come...  Interesting model weatching indeed.

Sorry pdiddy yes I guess imbyism is coming into play where the most populated part of the country is concerned. I didn't think my post was that imbyism I call it as I see it. Let's hope the winds are further south as we don't want this here. 

On weather front models still going for wot could turn into damaging winds. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Some of the later slides of the GFS 18Z are kinda similar to this:

archives-2008-1-11-12-0.png

Uppers were only -2 but we had heavy snow fall for a good few hours in Bristol. Unfortunately though, that was after an inch of rain had fallen before, which is something we don't need.

Then the briefest of northerlies where a ridge moves in at the same time as the -5 isotherm before the Tropics moves in again in FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index support an increase in amplitude of the MJO but differ on its eastward propagation. The favored ECMWF model solution, which had better forecast skill with the previous MJO event during December 2015 through early January 2016, indicates that a strengthening MJO propagates east across the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Beyond Week-2, the monthly ECMWF model solution on January 29 predicts a robust MJO signal with eastward propagation across the Pacific Ocean.

We'll have to see whether the outputs can find something that includes a bit more snow and less rain over the coming days!

The EC32 update yesterday took the MJO right through to phase 8 by early March, so potential for a more blocked upper flow pattern late Feb into early March. Let's hope it's more sustained, colder and more snowy than Jan's 'colder' phases of the MJO. At least by late Feb we may have the added cumulative effects of warming strat over the pole too.

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.thumb.gif.a1a3

Before then, a lot of bad wind developing from Sunday and through early next week, not just in the north either, as the jet stream moves south taking those deepening Atlantic lows with it on more southerly tracks. At least it won't be mild next week, in fact, risk of some wet snow across Wales and Midlands and other parts of the south too showing in GFS mid-week.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

A severe storm within 120hrs fetch the camera :) 

Its usual antics are showing full blown monsters out in the 'cosmos' so do take note here..

there would be plenty of media coverage since for once the storm is not impacting Scotland! Course it can downgrade more likely but time is closing in & potential for it to upgrade further / or strongest winds to move S affecting densely populated regions which would not be very pretty. 

Londoners teeth will be clattering anything over 30mph is quite infrequent I tell you.

image.thumb.png.3a1a3c28a51ddb8c5cff87dfimage.thumb.png.a7f7f4cabfe6e4b9210a5c4b

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Lets hope this dosent happen from the gfs  ensembles.  some people worrying abut being part of the eu, If this happens we should be more worried about being part of the mainland:bomb:

gens-1-1-126.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some signs of life in the GEFS towards day 8/9 with some better looking solutions in terms of wintry potential.

Lets hope this grows over the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Nice ensembles again on the 18z, cooling trend continues with something maybe more interesting going on around day 10, with some colder members getting their act together, there could be a big snow event in there for some lucky place.

 

Ensembles for Portsmouth and Liverpool, for a change:

graphe_ens3-1.php.gif

 

graphe_ens3.php.gif

Edited by snowray
wrong chart
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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Just now, snowray said:

Nice ensembles again on the 18z, cooling trend continues with something maybe more interesting going on around day 10, with some colder members getting their act together, there could be a big snow event in there for some lucky place.

 

Ensembles for Portsmouth and Liverpool, for a change:

graphe_ens3-1.php.gif

graphe_ens3-1.php.gif

I'm sure they are the same location.  Sorry for not dm you unable to unfortunately 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
48 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A severe storm within 120hrs fetch the camera :) 

Its usual antics are showing full blown monsters out in the 'cosmos' so do take note here..

there would be plenty of media coverage since for once the storm is not impacting Scotland! Course it can downgrade more likely but time is closing in & potential for it to upgrade further / or strongest winds to move S affecting densely populated regions which would not be very pretty. 

Londoners teeth will be clattering anything over 30mph is quite infrequent I tell you.

image.thumb.png.3a1a3c28a51ddb8c5cff87dfimage.thumb.png.a7f7f4cabfe6e4b9210a5c4b

Nice for you guys to take one for us Northerners for a change.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

I'm sure they are the same location.  Sorry for not dm you unable to unfortunately 

Your right, sorry. Just changed one. They are very similar though anyway, quite incredible really, the extreme South could do pretty well since theres the chance of channel low type features.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Just now, snowray said:

Nice ensembles again on the 18z, cooling trend continues with something maybe more interesting going on around day 10, with some colder members getting their act together, there could be a big snow event in there for some lucky place.

 

Ensembles for Portsmouth and Liverpool, for a change:

graphe_ens3-1.php.gif

graphe_ens3-1.php.gif

I'm sure they are the same location.  Sorry for not dm you unable to unfortunately 

 

Just now, snowray said:

Your right, sorry. Just changed one. They are very similar though anyway, quite incredible really, the extreme South could do pretty well since theres the chance of channel low type features.

Still the same lmao 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

I'm sure they are the same location.  Sorry for not dm you unable to unfortunately 

 

Still the same lmao 

They have only changed on my original post, soz about that. 

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