Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS now fully on board the heavy rain trail for wed and Thursday.

Yes its marginal for me, so much that the UKMO shows nothing but heavy rain for 24 hours.

Yh 00z have the front bulldozing though, but it wouldn't take a lot for it to be snow again. At present the form horse looks to be a sleety mix for low levels but possible snow at elevation. But still there's time for change wether it's good or bad but you do start to feel that its just not our year and anything that can go wrong will go wrong in terms of cold and snow prospects. 

 

image.thumb.jpg.eee5e909af447fa38b38fea6image.thumb.jpg.b67be5e8561db3947514a460k

 

Edited by snowangel32
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the possible mid-week snow the fax charts show the struggle for the fronts to move se, so taking the T72hrs:

fax72s.thumb.gif.2011260f9fc3237440083dc

You can see the triple point over the Irish Sea.

Then 12hrs later at T84hrs:

fax84s.thumb.gif.212bb087462fe147374e89b

The triple point is over northern Wales/nw England. The high to the east is more favourably orientated than last nights fax charts. Also the flow is slacker ahead of the precip.

Quite a complicated forecast as the models decide on the speed of those fronts and the surface flow ahead of the precip.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A slight move away from the nationwide snow event this morning, but even more sweating in the south east - models starting to firm up on a stall somewhere in this area, and so a Thursday snowfall certainly not out of the question - the majority of GEFS members are "stallers" now, and in that location.

For the weekend, some respite for the blossoming trees down here as the Azores High makes a little appearance to warm things up - with temps hitting the low teens by Sunday on both GFS and ECM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS bringing a bigger mild sector with every run it seems, no chance of snow for lowland England from this.

gfs-1-66.png?0

Maybe 3 ensemble members could bring snow, not a great count.

graphe3_1000_253_90___.gif

UKMO and ECM not too dissimilar so we need things to turn around quickly if we are to have any chance but this Winter is one of the worse I can remember for taking even the crumbs of comfort from coldies snow starved plates. I will be glad to see the back of it but I will of course cheer on the next tease until defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory.

I can just feel the HLB setting up for April in one final two fingered gesture from Winter 2015/16

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS races the fronts through between T72hrs and T84hrs and this is why theres such a big mild sector. This doesn't give time for the fronts to occlude and the cold air is mixed out. It doesn't slow the progression till the fronts are over the se.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS bringing a bigger mild sector with every run it seems, no chance of snow for lowland England from this.

gfs-1-66.png?0

Maybe 3 ensemble members could bring snow, not a great count.

graphe3_1000_253_90___.gif

UKMO and ECM not too dissimilar so we need things to turn around quickly if we are to have any chance but this Winter is one of the worse I can remember for taking even the crumbs of comfort from coldies snow starved plates. I will be glad to see the back of it but I will of course cheer on the next tease until defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory.

I can just feel the HLB setting up for April in one final two fingered gesture from Winter 2015/16

Agree, that mild sector on 0z will bring no chance of snow away from highest elevation.

Tomasz on BBC weather this morning also seems to agree, "turning much milder come Wednesday" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Agree, that mild sector on 0z will bring no chance of snow away from highest elevation.

Tomasz on BBC weather this morning also seems to agree, "turning much milder come Wednesday"

Bizarre. That just doesn't correlate with the fax charts. Was he talking for the Scilly Isles? lol

Or any of the UKMO text forecasts, has there been a sudden change from 7am this morning because that's when the fax charts are updated?

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tomasz is a mild weather fan, it's official!7402687046_140b588593_b.thumb.jpg.6cfb98

Next weekend looks very spring like on the Gfs 00z with the Azores high helping to bathe the southern half of the UK in very mild air with broken clouds and sunny spells...this winter has been an Epic fail for coldies but at least knocker's squirrel Sidney is happy:D

00_159_uk2mtmp.png

00_159_mslp500.png

00_183_uk2mtmp.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
14 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks heavens the UK hasn't imported that ridiculous view from the USA of the winter. Every time I hear spring starts 21st March or Winter starts 21st December it sends me into a tirade. I mean whats the astronomical calendar got to do with meteorology. Forecasters should always use the met terms IMO.

I just realized this might sound a bit daft! given of course the earths orbit and solstices but forecasters should stick to using the met seasons and not the astro ones.

A sudden change for the better for cold?sorry I really don't understand...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

just an example of why we shouldn't take too much notice of the precipitation charts. the 00z GFS shows snow for my location pretty much now-

prectypeuktopo-2.thumb.png.036e0ebd6371e

i can assure you, it hasn't.

if its wrong right now, i'm not putting too much faith in charts for 3 days away.

the game is still on....

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Well the continued search for dregs of cold in a poor winter for cold continues. The false dawn of an SSW led us up the garden path, this being repelled by a monster strat PV. Possibly into an ENSO pattern for the rest of March and then Spring and the MJO maybe going into a UK cool phase with some cold rain for us in the South, not a great prospect. Though I am still not convinced that this is not just another Kelvin Wave (not RMM), and therefore a weak MJO event.

Even the possibility of some frontal snow mid-week spoilt by a mild sector as the fronts push through, no real blocking to the east just the toppler shunted east in the westerly flow.

The GFS offers little to excite for the rest of the run into March, with the usual suspects from this El Nino Winter, so little chance of height rises (mid or high) in the Atlantic sector. Temps. for London after Thursday look like returning to nearer or above average after a brief cool down (but cool is probably overstating it):

56c038b795d7d_graphe6_1000_306_141___Lon

So no real SSW, an MJO that may be weak, so all in all another Winter fail. Lets hope the Met is correct with its forecast for a warm 2016.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Talking of squirrels Karl I have three red ones in the garden here who I feed. Thankfully those American grey squirrels aren't as prevalent in France.

As for TS I don't think he's a mild ramper and I think he's very good normally but perhaps he had a late night partying and got his days mixed up! lol

Even looking at the UKMO raw output at T72hrs that's different from the GFS, you can see the latter already has above freezing 850's right the way from the sw to ne of the UK compared to the UKMO which has this just towards the far sw:

UKMO1.thumb.gif.b59821fd94c8ad4005dc549fGFS1.thumb.gif.24a82437c4cbe63a22a9afdfc

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd

meanwhile across the pond their third successive polar vertex is causing temperatures to drop overnight to approx -34c. We can only wish! But that is a bit TOO COLD.

http://news.sky.com/story/1641563/millions-of-americans-shiver-in-polar-vortex

 

Edited by worldairgroup
spelling mistake
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Talking of squirrels Karl I have three red ones in the garden here who I feed. Thankfully those American grey squirrels aren't as prevalent in France.

As for TS I don't think he's a mild ramper and I think he's very good normally but perhaps he had a late night partying and got his days mixed up! lol

Even looking at the UKMO raw output at T72hrs that's different from the GFS, you can see the latter already has above freezing 850's right the way from the sw to ne of the UK compared to the UKMO which has this just towards the far sw:

UKMO1.thumb.gif.b59821fd94c8ad4005dc549fGFS1.thumb.gif.24a82437c4cbe63a22a9afdfc

 

I agree Nick, he's one of the best BBC forecasters:)

As for week ahead, wintry showers spreading south today and tonight with snow showers to exposed northern and eastern areas but some making inroads inland too, even a chance of snow showers for the SE tonight with Essex and Kent favoured. More snow showers digging south tomorrow with a strong Northerly flow easing with showers slowly dying out from the west with longer spells of winter sunshine. Tomorrow night looks clear and frosty as a ridge of high pressure topples SE with Tuesday looking crisp and sunny for england and wales under a cold ridge but turning unsettled across northern britain. Wednesday shows rain, possibly preceded by a short spell of sleet or wet snow, especially on hills gradually sinking towards the southeast and eventually fizzling out during Thursday with drier, brighter conditions following but with showers to northwestern areas.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Talking of squirrels Karl I have three red ones in the garden here who I feed. Thankfully those American grey squirrels aren't as prevalent in France.

As for TS I don't think he's a mild ramper and I think he's very good normally but perhaps he had a late night partying and got his days mixed up! lol

Even looking at the UKMO raw output at T72hrs that's different from the GFS, you can see the latter already has above freezing 850's right the way from the sw to ne of the UK compared to the UKMO which has this just towards the far sw:

UKMO1.thumb.gif.b59821fd94c8ad4005dc549fGFS1.thumb.gif.24a82437c4cbe63a22a9afdfc

 

Nick....I'd call that output tuesday night really......if he's saying milder come wednesday would be not be referring to the transition that takes during wednesday and marks the difference to what the output will show 24 hours later?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 14TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A ridge of High pressure will advance East across the UK tomorrow following the weakening of a cold and dry NE flow which is currently whisking away the cloudy damp troughs of Low pressure over the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is now fairly universal at or around 2000ft across the UK. Snow showers in the North and East will continue to give local accumulations of snow there mostly but not exclusively over the hills and mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is blowing due east South of the UK currently. Over the next few days the flow buckles North and ridges across the UK as a ridge passes East. The flow then continues to undulate remaining largely well South over Europe and either travelling South over or near the UK until Week 2 when the flow becomes West to East across the UK again for a time at least.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a strong ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK over the coming days with cold and frosty air within. Then by midweek Atlantic troughs run into the cold air from the West decelerating as they do with a messy mix of rain and snow West to East across the UK from Wednesday gradually dying out from  most by Friday with clearer and rather cold weather following on behind with a few wintry showers in the NW. Thereafter the run shows milder Atlantic Westerly winds returning to all areas with rather cloudy and breezy weather with rain at times the order of the day through the second week.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run again follows a similar path through Week 1 with the second week showing changeable conditions too with Westerly winds and rain or showers and some snow too especially in the North as alternating temperatures affect all areas of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today mostly support West or NW winds across the UK in 2 weeks time with rain or showers plus hill snow very likely as Low pressure dominates the UK weather close to Scotland. There is very limited support for any High pressure based weather with just 15% of members supporting any influence of High pressure at all down to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the early week ridge giving way to a cold front crossing East and SE across al areas midweek. Moving into cold air snow is a threat for many before the front decelerates and decays over SE areas as chilly WNW winds and occasional wintry showers affect other areas before milder Westerly winds arrive certainly for the North by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the complex trough structure moving down over the UK from the NW later this coming week following a strong ridge of High pressure crossing East over all areas up to that point. The air is shown to be chilly both ahead and behind the front with wintry showers following the main band of rain, sleet and snow on the front itself.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today follows the pack in the complex movement of an occluded front moving SE across the UK midweek with a mix of rain, sleet and snow in places for several days around the Wednesday/ Thursday time point before the pattern simplifies to a West or WNW flow, often chilly and showery with some shorter milder rainy spells as troughs cross East over the UK at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM was unavailable for some reason or another at time of issue.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM also shows a trough crossing SE midweek, running into the cold air over the UK and offering a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow. Following on behind will also be a lot of chilly air with wintry showers and night frosts likely. Into next weekend and the following week it looks like some more chilly and showery west or NW winds with wintry showers will alternate with milder rainy weather over the South at times as weather systems pass by to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the Jet stream near to the South of the UK with West or NW winds looking the likely position we find ourselves in at the 10 day time point between Low pressure to the North and perhaps the NE of the UK and High pressure well to the South and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek next week remains the main agreements behind today's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 88.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 51.2 pts to ECM's 50.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   back after a short break and this morning the theme of the output doesn't look so very different to what it was on Thursday when I last compiled this report. The last hurrah of the weekend's chilly and damp weather is leaving the South coast as I speak and opening the door to a cold NNE flow with wintry showers in the East. Pressure will be rising very rapidly across the UK over the next 24-48hrs and a strong ridge will cover the UK as a result by late Monday and into Tuesday. It looks unlikely to hold though as a complex Low pressure trough associated by Low pressure well to the North moves into the UK cold air with all sorts of fun and games looking possible for a time as a result. The front will bring in a spell of rain for all with the undetermined factor being how much of that falls as sleet or snow with the East and SE looking best favoured for that as it stands. Whatever happens it will stay cold for many through the working week as even following the trough the air is cold enough for wintry showers for Western and Northern areas. The models from next weekend do suggest less cold conditions at times without ever showing anything remarkably mild for very long periods before colder and more showery conditions return from the West and NW at times. All areas in Week 2 look like seeing some rain or showers with snowfall on hills at times especially in the North. Overall temperatures look likely to be near or a little below average at times as various pressure systems and air masses pass over any any place day to day. It still looks bad news for anyone looking for sustained dry and fine weather and although winds are largely Westerly later in the period the air is likely to be chillier than we have seen on these winds for much of the Winter gone so I'm sure we will think it rather cold for much of the time.       

Next Update Monday February 15th 2016 from 09:00

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Talking of squirrels Karl I have three red ones in the garden here who I feed. Thankfully those American grey squirrels aren't as prevalent in France.

As for TS I don't think he's a mild ramper and I think he's very good normally but perhaps he had a late night partying and got his days mixed up! lol

Even looking at the UKMO raw output at T72hrs that's different from the GFS, you can see the latter already has above freezing 850's right the way from the sw to ne of the UK compared to the UKMO which has this just towards the far sw:

UKMO1.thumb.gif.b59821fd94c8ad4005dc549fGFS1.thumb.gif.24a82437c4cbe63a22a9afdfc

 

ECM Sides with GFS though, theres even a hefty slither of +2 850mb temps.

Recm722.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Talking of squirrels Karl I have three red ones in the garden here who I feed. Thankfully those American grey squirrels aren't as prevalent in France.

As for TS I don't think he's a mild ramper and I think he's very good normally but perhaps he had a late night partying and got his days mixed up! lol

Even looking at the UKMO raw output at T72hrs that's different from the GFS, you can see the latter already has above freezing 850's right the way from the sw to ne of the UK compared to the UKMO which has this just towards the far sw:

UKMO1.thumb.gif.b59821fd94c8ad4005dc549fGFS1.thumb.gif.24a82437c4cbe63a22a9afdfc

 

Where did you find those charts Nick? I thought 850's on the UKMO were top secret :nea:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A quick look at GFS and ECM for next weekend shows some much milder air making it in

Recm1682.thumb.gif.38722a29266d0538dfbb3Rtavn1682.thumb.gif.7935080952617b68ff7f

ECM keeps it one more day but some cooler air moves back in

Recm1922.thumb.gif.1691f2d3c5b2027dc8730Recm2162.thumb.gif.a3e431bba64f135584456

GFS take a day or so longer before it brings in the cooler air

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where did you find those charts Nick? I thought 850's on the UKMO were top secret :nea:

Right here - http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=fr&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=000 :)

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...