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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

The Scandi high that was lapping at our shores yesterday morning is now about 2000 miles furthest East on the latest UKMO. Just goes to show how pointless it is looking at even T120 charts for cold, I mean the Euro slug never ever ends up 2000 miles further South at T120 though does it.

Must be the snow lovers longest loosing streak this now, three years without any upgrades, surely a record. It's like going into a bookies every day and not getting a single winner in 3 years.

 

Lets just hope that there next week can produce something for someone, somewhere.

UW120-21.GIF

UW144-21.GIF

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
19 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 12z still shows snow for some areas during the midweek period, even for the southeast and east Anglia and temperatures as you would expect, below average..so the chance of accumulations is still alive!:)

12_90_preciptype.png

12_99_preciptype.png

12_108_preciptype.png

12_123_preciptype.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_114_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

Very easy on the eye that Karl.IMBY

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Oh surprise, surprise, Euro slug back.

gfs-0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Oh surprise, surprise, Euro slug back.

gfs-0-192.png

What date is it today?

Isn't that chart for the 21st?We can't verify at 120z at the moment so I read nothing into that.Earlier this afternoon someone with vastly more information to hand had nothing to say regarding that sort of outcome.At ease gentlemen.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What date is it today?

Isn't that chart for the 21st?We can't verify at 120z at the moment so I read nothing into that.Earlier this afternoon someone with vastly more information to hand had nothing to say regarding that sort of outcome.At ease gentlemen.:)

Yes its only one run.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
6 hours ago, nick sussex said:

 

The difference between this GFS 06hrs run and the earlier 00hrs is

The westerlies will come back for short time before colder air comes in 22-25 February?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

A stalling front is what we need for Weds/Thurs.

UKMO looks to be one of the more progressive options tonight,

GFS a little to progressive but much better than UKMO.

But as Ian says 25% chance of lowland snow into Thursday if the front manages to stall and decay in situ, slim I know but highlights we are still in the game so to speak.

Lets just hope the models trend towards the slowing stalling scenario rather then the progressive one!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Into the last few frames and there's some pretty cold N/Wly's showing.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The latest run from the arperge... snow for most of the country wed/thurs.

arpegeeur-2-114.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

The westerlies will come back for short time before colder air comes in 22-25 February?

As you're in Sweden any news yet on whether there will be a 4th season of Bron, I miss Saga Noren.

In terms of the end of February I wouldn't be surprised to some colder conditions given the movement of the MJO.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Into the last few frames and there's some pretty cold N/Wly's showing.

a.pngb.pngc.png

The thing that's caught my attention in the last few frames is whats going on at 1,10 and 30mb.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Latest 12z Arome showing fair bit of snow for parts of Wales and the SW later tonight.

arome-1-8-0.png

arome-1-11-0.png

arome-1-17-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
59 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

GFS 12z Thursday snow risk..

a.pngb.pngc.png

At first glance, they don't look too bad, problem is that the snow level is so high that it means rain almost everywhere on the second and third charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The thing that's caught my attention in the last few frames is whats going on at 1,10 and 30mb.

Yes,it's a shame the PV has taken so long to be brought to it's knees.

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-10-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, winterof79 said:

Yes,it's a shame the PV has taken so long to be brought to it's knees.

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-10-384.png

I wonder with the MJO forecast into a high phase as well weather the Met Office might be underplaying their March forecast of 'drier and below average' and whether a power house Northerly might be on the cards.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder with the MJO forecast into a high phase as well weather the Met Office might be underplaying their March forecast of 'drier and below average' and whether a power house Northerly might be on the cards.

No doubt the perfect winter synoptics will turn up in March and it will be a case of if only a month earlier. Unless theres some astounding synoptics like March 2013 then the thought of a pile of cold rain is underwhelming.

If theres to be anything wintry we need it right at the start of the month or preferably the MJO speeds up and delivers late February.

In terms of the MJO composites its a bit difficult when the change of phase falls at the end of one month and the start of another. Because there are some important differences as to exactly what composite is the more likelier.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Hmm, so the GFS is showing another warming and potential splitting of the Strat vortex being shown in deep FI.....so as a rough estimation, given the time scale for for the effects to appear in the trop and then the slice of lady luck needed for the split to influence the weather patterns that might affect our tiny Island, then it does look like a raging northerly might be in the offing............................................................................................................................

 

...................in June :80:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Hmm, so the GFS is showing another warming and potential splitting of the Strat vortex being shown in deep FI.....so as a rough estimation, given the time scale for for the effects to appear in the trop and then the slice of lady luck needed for the split to influence the weather patterns that might affect our tiny Island, then it does look like a raging northerly might be in the offing............................................................................................................................

 

...................in June :80:

Guess when Easter is this year? End of March.....

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
34 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Hmm, so the GFS is showing another warming and potential splitting of the Strat vortex being shown in deep FI.....so as a rough estimation, given the time scale for for the effects to appear in the trop and then the slice of lady luck needed for the split to influence the weather patterns that might affect our tiny Island, then it does look like a raging northerly might be in the offing............................................................................................................................

 

...................in June :80:

100 hPa chart   f6d27daa206ceb4ab52c7ce827fd8bc2.png

Looks to have made it beyond the upper strat. Not beyond the realms of possibility given projected MJO phasing and Mr F's mentioning of what the GloSea5 is showing for start of meteorological Spring.

Edit to add the CanSIPS* for March.    T7r4qTx.png

* GEM seasonal models.

@ajpoolshark  :whistling:

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No doubt the perfect winter synoptics will turn up in March and it will be a case of if only a month earlier. Unless theres some astounding synoptics like March 2013 then the thought of a pile of cold rain is underwhelming.

If theres to be anything wintry we need it right at the start of the month or preferably the MJO speeds up and delivers late February.

In terms of the MJO composites its a bit difficult when the change of phase falls at the end of one month and the start of another. Because there are some important differences as to exactly what composite is the more likelier.

Ive experienced numerous dumpings in March Nick and Not just since ive been up here.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just to add 12z nmm gives snow to midlands and northwest england and also arpege has pretty much all of it as snow across the same areas!!maybe a backtrack from gfs tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Thanks heavens the UK hasn't imported that ridiculous view from the USA of the winter. Every time I hear spring starts 21st March or Winter starts 21st December it sends me into a tirade. I mean whats the astronomical calendar got to do with meteorology. Forecasters should always use the met terms IMO.

I just realized this might sound a bit daft! given of course the earths orbit and solstices but forecasters should stick to using the met seasons and not the astro ones.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
9 minutes ago, Nouska said:

100 hPa chart   f6d27daa206ceb4ab52c7ce827fd8bc2.png

Looks to have made it beyond the upper strat. Not beyond the realms of possibility given projected MJO phasing and Mr F's mentioning of what the GloSea5 is showing for start of meteorological Spring

Thanks Nouska for that good news morsel :)

My post was more of a sardonic reflection of the teases that the model outputs delight in tormenting us coldies with............Yes, they are computer sims, but sinister forces are at work, the model outputs have developed self awareness and rather than a 'terminator' type extermination event, they're far happier to just torment us poor coldies showing deep FI teases with sadistic glee :crazy:    :laugh:

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