Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows the best winter weather through late February with widespread snow and arctic air sweeping south.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Snowy L said:

http://www.ann-geophys.net/33/207/2015/angeo-33-207-2015.pdf

This might be interesting. In the last 3 winters we've had ENSO neutral and El Nino, we've had W-QBO and E-QBO we've had low snow advance and high snow advance yet all winters have been mild with a positive NAO throughout. Maybe the solar cycle has a larger than expected part to play in winter. This paper show the North Atlantic is the main area affected by solar activity and during solar cycle peak the Azores High/Icelandic lows are strengthened.

Always been a huge believer in this. Solar activity has a massive affect on our small part of the world during every winter. 2009/10 was absolute proof of this if we ever needed it.

[weather09]

19 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

We need that low,to yes circulate up to the north rather then east! If it travels quickly east then it stops the high over Scandinavia to build properly and effectively guts squashed further south and east

Right... 

I guess what I was getting at was the driving force bit.  Does what's happening aloft (500mb) have any relevance?  

Thanks for the reply.  

[A.J]

13 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 6z shows the best winter weather through late February with widespread snow and arctic air sweeping south.

yes it does Karl would be very nice if it verifies, but just a note of caution for new members less knowledgeable members, these charts are in deep FI and have very little chance of verifying............Eye candy for sure, but just eye candy all the same 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes it does Karl would be very nice if it verifies, but just a note of caution for new members less knowledgeable members, these charts are in deep FI and have very little chance of verifying............Eye candy for sure, but just eye candy all the same 

Yes AJ, fully agree...this winter has exhausted me with chasing cold and a few snowflakes...very nice FI eye candy though

[Ben Lewis]

22 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes it does Karl would be very nice if it verifies, but just a note of caution for new members less knowledgeable members, these charts are in deep FI and have very little chance of verifying............Eye candy for sure, but just eye candy all the same 

Quite right, statistics from this winter show that has barely 10% chance in verifying. 

[Essex snowman]

33 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 6z shows the best winter weather through late February with widespread snow and arctic air sweeping south.

Well Karl I'm happy to wait till late Feb if those charts verify so for once let those charts Karl posted be right for all us long suffering coldies 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Quite right, statistics from this winter show that has barely 10% chance in verifying. 

We are having fun studying the output though which is what this thread is about. We are fully aware of the pitfalls of looking too far ahead but I am not waiting until Tuesday to form an opinion on a snow event which may be right or wrong.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Well Karl I'm happy to wait till late Feb if those charts verify so for once let those charts Karl posted be right for all us long suffering coldies 

Indeed..fingers crossed!! 

[winterof79]

42 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 6z shows the best winter weather through late February with widespread snow and arctic air sweeping south.

We may get some before then too. I know areas only just north of here have had snow this morning.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The moment of truth will be Wednesday into Thursday, can we get a good ridge building over Scandinavia,if so we could see a snowy midweek.after this end of the week can we get the ridge in the mid Atlantic to build further north approaching greenland or is the pv to organised,current output is that the Atlantic ridge will get flattened out and leave us in mild Westerlys! My own judgement of this is 70/30 in favour of mild westerlys..but I do hope I am so wrong!

Edited February 13, 2016 by Lukesluckybunch

[karyo]

2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

....EC Monthly does, eventually. The current expectation is for (the lagged) phase 6 influence to perhaps become influential for UK around end of Feb-early March, with *some* GloSea5 members suggestive of an increased possibility of more blocked, colder outcomes into early next month. The risk of a colder than average start to spring has been flagged for a while now.

Thank you for your input.

I am actually pleased to see the EC monthly forecast taking the MJO to phase 8 before it does. This is quite good considering the ECM was always less keen than the GEFS in making much of this MJO event.

Also, good to see some GloSea members going for a more blocked signal. If I remember well, the Met Office was doubtful as to whether the MJO would have much of an impact in the late Feb and early March outlook based on your previous updates. :-)

[Ben Lewis]

14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

We are having fun studying the output though which is what this thread is about. We are fully aware of the pitfalls of looking too far ahead but I am not waiting until Tuesday to form an opinion on a snow event which may be right or wrong.

Your having fun studying the output and I'm being realistic studying the output which is what this thread is for. I'm fully aware of the fun nature and I "will" wait until Tuesday to form an opinion on a snow event which may be right or wrong. 

[winterof79]

Great probability % for up here

GFS going from mild to cold outlier further into the run.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The moment of truth will be Wednesday into Thursday, can we get a good ridge building over Scandinavia,if so we could see a snowy midweek.after this end of the week can we get the ridge in the mid Atlantic to build further north approaching greenland or is the pv to organised,current output is that the Atlantic ridge will get flattened out and leave us in mild Westerlys! My own judgement of this is 70/30 in favour of mild westerlys..but I do hope I am so wrong!

The latest expert view is it won't be a snowy midweek, they say it will be turning a little milder through Wed / Thurs with some rain...sorry to say this but just keeping it real.

[gottolovethisweather]

1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Karl, what have you done with Frosty Has he melted as a result of 3 successive cr*p winters, and will we ever see him again? this place isn't the same without him.

Karl is no model as far as I'm aware and this thread is purely for model output discussion, perhaps you could PM him Snowmut?  

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please discuss what the models are showing as this is what the thread is all about 'Model Output Discussion', Not what we think may happen. Theres always doubt in these macro setups one way or the other.

[winterof79]

Latest fax showing a decaying front moving down the country overnight

More showers overnight Sunday too

 

[Frosty.]

However, the Gfs 6z is showing a snowy midweek for some areas so the dream is still alive!

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 6z shows the best winter weather through late February with widespread snow and arctic air sweeping south.

2 weeks away..hmmm.

One lesson this Winter is not to take these charts seriously until 24 hours out.

[winterof79]

Good chance of some streamers setting up later this weekend as colder air gets dragged across the North Sea

 http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/13/basis06/ukuk/prty/16021500_1306.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/13/basis06/ukuk/prty/16021506_1306.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/13/basis06/ukuk/th85/16021506_1306.gif

[fergieweather]

5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

However, the Gfs 6z is showing a snowy midweek for some areas so the dream is still alive!

Leaving the joys of GFS stuff aside, the consensus from other ensemble suites currently suggests risk of snow on Weds across high ground of central/E England, with 30% chance of this extending down to low levels over Midlands/E England. There's also currently a 25% chance of lowland snow into Thurs *if* front slows and decays in-situ. All very awkward and no clear-cut pointer to eventual outcome.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

2 weeks away..hmmm.

One lesson this Winter is not to take these charts seriously until 24 hours out.

Just to be clear, my post was light hearted in tone and in no way saying it would verify as shown but since this is the model output discussion, it's perfectly reasonable to post what the charts are showing, whatever the timeframe.

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Leaving the joys of GFS stuff aside, the consensus from other ensemble suites currently suggests risk of snow on Weds across high ground of central/E England, with 30% chance of this extending down to low levels over Midlands/E England. There's also currently a 25% chance of lowland snow into Thurs *if* front slows and decays in-situ. All very awkward and no clear-cut pointer to eventual outcome.

Thanks Ian, so the chances are still there. I think many are hoping the for the snow to be become more widespread and fall into your 'bothersome' category!

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Leaving the joys of GFS stuff aside, the consensus from other ensemble suites currently suggests risk of snow on Weds across high ground of central/E England, with 30% chance of this extending down to low levels over Midlands/E England. There's also currently a 25% chance of lowland snow into Thurs *if* front slows and decays in-situ. All very awkward and no clear-cut pointer to eventual outcome.

Many thanks for the up date Ian.I thought it would still be a rather complex situation.

Edited February 13, 2016 by winterof79