Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[weirpig]

bigger mild sector on the 12z

[frosty ground]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Crapper run than the 6z this, poorer scandi heights means the angle of attack is worse from the North West and theres a bigger mild sector involved.

Spot on.... lack of specter from the East

[Liam J]

A move towards the ECM from the 12z GFS. 

GFS  

ECM 

[chicken soup]

It was only a matter of time before the downgrades began...you just cant trust these models in winter mode.

 

[terrier]

You can almost guarantee that the ecm tonight will show what the gfs was showing in earlier runs now that the gfs 12z has moved towards the ecm in its early time frames.

[weirpig]

Poor gfs run   compared to previous runs   in line with the anomaly charts  and ecm. i just want one bloody snowflake.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

You can almost guarantee that the ecm tonight will show what the gfs was showing in earlier runs now that the gfs 12z has moved towards the ecm in its early time frames.

I doubt it, I would have settled for that outcome, rather have the ECM at that range than the GFS.

[snowhope]

You really couldn't be more unlucky! Cold Air all around us with a massive mild sector over practically the whole of the UK.

It brings to mind this line from a famous poem:

"Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink"

[weirpig]

Just now, snowhope said:

You really couldn't be more unlucky! Cold Air all around us with a massive mild sector over practically the whole of the UK.

It brings to mind this line from a famous poem:

"Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink"

there certainly is water everywhere  and going by that run  we might be the first species of humans to evolve gills.  

[mulzy]

UKMO broadly similar (maybe even flatter) to the GFS.  Looks like the ECM has called this correctly - let's see what this evening's run will show but don't hold your breath for a turnaround.

 

 

 

 

[snowhope]

Just now, weirpig said:

there certainly is water everywhere  and going by that run  we might be the first species of humans to evolve gills.  

I suppose many more runs and changes to come yet, some upgrades would be nice rather than the expected downgrades.....

[karyo]

On 2/8/2016 at 3:27 PM, nick sussex said:

 

As a rule of thump when there is disagreement in the models always trust the less cold outcome! Then you can avoid disappointment lol

 

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, snowhope said:

You really couldn't be more unlucky! Cold Air all around us with a massive mild sector over practically the whole of the UK.

It brings to mind this line from a famous poem:

"Water, water, every where, Nor any drop to drink"

 

 

 

1

 

The air even then is not that cold sadly, to be fair either, so swings and roundabouts I guess. Mind you D5 range is still far enough in the future for things to favour some wintriness around before hand. Snow on the hills even down South is a decent enough probability, whilst for others it will be marginal at best away from those sweet spots such as the Pennines, NE and Southern Scotland. Monday and Tuesday look set to be the coldest days of the upcoming cool to cold spell.

Edited February 12, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Faronstream]

All models has shown cold air next week and now ECM for some reason have made the Scandia high pressure weaker, weird since Finland gets much snow and that can help High pressure get stronger

[kumquat]

22 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

It was only a matter of time before the downgrades began...you just cant trust these models in winter mode.

 

Indeed, last Monday was showing snowy weather for the south coming tonight into tomorrow. This has been subsequently pushed back to Saturday, then Sunday and now we are chasing snow-bows into the middle of next week. Like a few have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

Latest 12Z gfs shows snowy ppn (IMBY) for 07:00 tomorrow morning - albeit light.

Let's see what the reality brings. I'd give my right eye just to see a few flakes floating on the breeze!!

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by kumquat

[joggs]

Yes kudos to the ECM for me.I know there's time for change but metoffice been good this winter so only a matter of time until GFS backed down imo.Wouldn't be surprised to see downgrades all the way now.Anyway onto the colder shot from the nw at months end,that Fergie alluded to,to see if most of us can receive some white stuff.Awful winter again fir coldies.Me included.

[Essex snowman]

Let's be honest most members knew gfs would be wrong well done ecm 

[mushymanrob]

24 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

It was only a matter of time before the downgrades began...you just cant trust these models in winter mode.

 

no different in summer.. the trick is not to believe the extreme runs, or check with the noaa anomaly charts to see if they support an fi chart.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z is from the other side of the cluster. It's a reminder that the trough disruption may not lead to snow if too much energy goes north. More runs needed!

[Nick F]

Looks like UKMO has gone the same way as GFS towards 00z ECM and pushed the high east into Russia to allow heights to fall across Scandi ...

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

no different in summer.. the trick is not to believe the extreme runs, or check with the noaa anomaly charts to see if they support an fi chart.

I believe most are referring to the loss of the stalling snow mid week, which the anomaly's wouldn't show.There will still be cold air in place and I don't think it's displacement will be solved on the Friday before.

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

Yes kudos to the ECM for me.I know there's time for change but metoffice been good this winter so only a matter of time until GFS backed down imo.Wouldn't be surprised to see downgrades all the way now.Anyway onto the colder shot from the nw at months end,that Fergie alluded to,to see if most of us can receive some white stuff.Awful winter again fir coldies.Me included.

Kudos to ECM? - everyone was saying how poor it was earlier and that GFS was the model of choice. You couldn't make it up! 

(Not aimed at you by the way, just a general observation  )

[MR EXTREMES]

as soon as I see the ukmo run and the ecm this morning and the differences in gfs6z to 12z is absolutely bonkers so one word towel in I'm certain if the ukmo and ecm are correct then forget the wintry weather for the south except frost.

garden path has been a Swearing AGAIN take this winter.

disappointing.

don't need to see the ecm as I feel ecm ukmo have super seeded the gfs and along with johns h ideas using the anom charts he uses almost confirms a complete collapse of anything even remotely wintry apart from Scotland and eastern England even that's not anything to disruptive awful runs apart from the gfs and I don't see the ukmo being wrong at 72hrs towel in the ring.

westerlys look the theme by the end of the week.

[Chris K]

18 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Let's be honest most members knew gfs would be wrong well done ecm 

No. Clearly not. Only earlier today we were told to expect the ECM to back down. Now suddenly we are praising it. You can see why those new to the netweather community may get confused by posts in this thread.

Great to see discussion across the model suites, as it helps people learn differences in charts and what's causing them. However I feel disappointment always seems to follow calls that one model will likely trump another, then the opposite happens...

Anyway no model is right until the time in question has occurred.

Met office have been excellent this winter in my opinion. We all  just need jobs there so we can see the juicy stuff

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Chris K

[Blizzardof82]

16 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Let's be honest most members knew gfs would be wrong well done ecm 

To be fair none are right yet, as the weather hasn't occurred.