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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
7 minutes ago, Ripeberry said:

So it seems that the East will get all the 'fun' next week. Yes, I suppose we in the 'West' are downbeat. Wasn't it only a few days ago that there might have been a massive dumping in central/South England? Hope the snow takes us all by surprise. If it ever arrives at all... 

The GFS shows snowfall over Central/Northern England next Wed/Thur, So it's certainly not just the East that's effected. As others have stated, I would expect some surprise falls with these type of set-up's.. And let's not forget the North as parts of Scotland already have lying snow.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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East regions have chance for snow during the weekend. However, the freezing level will not decrease lower than 400 meters. So, it may be wintry showers.\

On next Wednesday there is an organized warm front which will face very cold conditions over the Uk. You can see my article that I uploaded a bit earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossendale 900ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!!!
  • Location: Rossendale 900ft ASL
34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i mean 'big freeze', yes itll be a cold week, but not a week of deep cold, ice days, much snow and i dont think the noaa charts suggest a spell like that is likely to evolve, despite some 'building blocks' (awful phrase) being almost in place. :)

Thanks for taking the time to reply, i am still learning the how to use the anomaly charts, seems there is still much to learn :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

A chart thats 5 and a half days away. Absolutely will categorically, without question change. Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

Discussing where sweet spots will be, means diddly squat this far out. Thats if it even snows at all.

Im more interested if the models continue to show the same theme over the weekend. If disruptive snowfall looks projected on Monday evenings chart, at the very earliest Tuesday should be the day discussing possible 'sweet spots'

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

A chart thats 5 and a half days away. Absolutely will categorically, without question change. Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

Discussing where sweet spots will be, means diddly squat this far out. Thats if it even snows at all.

Im more interested if the models continue to show the same theme over the weekend. If disruptive snowfall looks projected on Monday evenings chart, at the very earliest Tuesday should be the day discussing possible 'sweet spots'

Well said - let's see how the pattern evolves rather than hyping up sweet spots etc - it's getting colder yes.. Let's get the cold in and see what evolves

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

A chart thats 5 and a half days away. Absolutely will categorically, without question change. Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

Discussing where sweet spots will be, means diddly squat this far out. Thats if it even snows at all.

Im more interested if the models continue to show the same theme over the weekend. If disruptive snowfall looks projected on Monday evenings chart, at the very earliest Tuesday should be the day discussing possible 'sweet spots'

Yes,I agree there the most important thing is getting the cold in place! Then we can get little developments with in it,which can also produce snow.Thursday and Friday currently looking the coldest next weekend with temps 2-4c for many,perhaps a bit lower if you live in the east and south

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I live in hope but not a hope that I've drenched in expectation. The experience of "that ECM" will always live with me..... seeing an ECM get on boad with a promising GFS and taking it as evidence that an upcoming spell of narnia-like weather was nailed on...only to see the all models conga away from it in 24 hours!

So even a riproaring ECM this evening will not have me shouting that anything is nailed on.....but I've always leant more towards the GFS as a preferred model and I really really hope it's on to something this time

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Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
5 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

A chart thats 5 and a half days away. Absolutely will categorically, without question change. Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

Discussing where sweet spots will be, means diddly squat this far out. Thats if it even snows at all.

Im more interested if the models continue to show the same theme over the weekend. If disruptive snowfall looks projected on Monday evenings chart, at the very earliest Tuesday should be the day discussing possible 'sweet spots'

But being the model discussion thread surely people can talk about what a specific model shows if they wan't to? 

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

 Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

 

^^

This sounds a little over the top Ben, :D your hat would do!!!!!! lol

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
12 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Let's leave who should/should not get exited to the individuals own presumption. Looking at the models snowfall could pretty much fall anywhere next week with a cold N/E flow, So some very interesting model watching to come as we pick out the detail. Things can change and do within only a few hours, Radars and now-casting at the ready.

couldnt agree more.... so far for my day that was forecast to be dry... we have had rain since 9:30 this morning turning to sleet then very wet snow then back to sleety rain and still going....

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
11 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

A chart thats 5 and a half days away. Absolutely will categorically, without question change. Ill eat my own hand if it doesn't.

Discussing where sweet spots will be, means diddly squat this far out. Thats if it even snows at all.

Im more interested if the models continue to show the same theme over the weekend. If disruptive snowfall looks projected on Monday evenings chart, at the very earliest Tuesday should be the day discussing possible 'sweet spots'

I think the interest in this thread lies in what the models are showing and how this all manifests from today's charts out to any event in the future. And following/discussing the charts over the few days which is what the threads all about.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I live in hope but not a hope that I've drenched in expectation. The experience of "that ECM" will always live with me..... seeing an ECM get on boad with a promising GFS and taking it as evidence that an upcoming spell of narnia-like weather was nailed on...only to see the all models conga away from it in 24 hours!

So even a riproaring ECM this evening will not have me shouting that anything is nailed on.....but I've always leant more towards the GFS as a preferred model and I really really hope it's on to something this time

We are battle weary warriors - many years of let downs has taken its toll - for me the penny has dropped !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
9 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I think the interest in this thread lies in what the models are showing and how this all manifests from today's charts out to any event in the future. And following/discussing the charts over the few days which is what the threads all about.

Point taken. I was referring more to specifics.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

yep, I've always thought that taking charts such as ppn amount/type unreliable at T24+, but totally agree with the likes of Steve M, Frosty, PM et al that the broad brush approach infers a good chance of most areas seeing some snowfall except perhaps the far SW in the coming days 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Quite an unusual scenario playing out with the normally less progressive ECM doing a GFS and the latter doing an ECM.

Indeed looking at the GEFS 06hrs there looks like even more support for trough disruption near the UK at T138hrs than in the earlier 00hrs.

At the moment the ECM operational run isn't seeing any ridging towards Svalbard and this really is the crucial difference. Without that too much energy spills east.

You can see the differences between the GEFS 06hrs T138hrs ensemble mean compared to the ECM 00hrs T144hrs mean:

gensnh-21-1-138.thumb.png.a2c566cad88296EDH1-144.thumb.gif.d201ed6423eb5d1871815

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Re: the unreliability of a 5 day chart ... Actually, I've been thinking about this, the forecast for next Wednesday relies on the macro scale rather than micro I.e. the position of the main trough to the NW and main trough to the SE. The positioning of these look fairly set. The disruption looks likely to happen in a line between the two.

Therefore, I'd say there is actually higher than average confidence that this event is going to happen. Exact positioning of the trough and marginality of snow is up for grabs, but the overall idea of trough disruption over the UK looks fairly set to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If the GFS trend is correct then at this range picking out the areas most favoured for any snow is a bit of a lottery.

What normally tends to happen is the precip slows up as it hits the colder air. And the block to the east begins to squeeze the energy out of the occlusion. You then normally find the occlusion reverses to indicate that the block is winning out.

Its a bit of a win loss depending where you live because you want to be in the sweetspot for the heaviest precip but don't want the front to make too much eastwards progress.

Whats good for one place will probably result in not being good somewhere else, the positive is that the likely occlusion isn't being followed by what we often see with much milder conditions. Its a case of some PM air trying to displace colder continental air.

The set up going off past experiences will see initially a warm front approaching and this then is caught up by the cold front and occludes as it struggles eastwards.

Again though if the ECM is correct most of the cold is mixed out before the fronts arrive and so that's why that ridge near Svalbard is so crucial.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Crapper run than the 6z this, poorer scandi heights means the angle of attack is worse from the North West and theres a bigger mild sector involved.

 

This run is more in line with Met Office text forecast.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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