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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Maybe I should have said 'parts of' in hindsight?

On a different note, my quick look at the EC32, and apart from the trough disruption over western UK next THursday, the run looks generally anticyclonic up until day 16 or so, after which a more mobile and cyclonic westerly flow takes over.

Thanks. Perhaps "bit of"?

Devon +Cornwall= "LOT" of West country. To me,anyway.

Cheers,the forgotten

Edited by cornish snow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
47 minutes ago, kiddydaz said:

Sat at JFK. Getting out just in time. There are limits too how cold anyone wants ? 

image.png

It's strange because they use Fahrenheit in the USA and so when they mention below zero it doesn't sound so drastic until you think wow that's like -18c.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
6 hours ago, Banbury said:

fax120s.gif?1

120h fax

Weather fronts on the attack

No sign of trough disruption there.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM having none of it again

None of what...?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

For comparison at 120z. GFS ,UKMO ECM GEM and JMA

 

 

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-120.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_UW120-21.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM1-120.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gem-0-120.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_navgem-0-120.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Essex snowman said:

Ali1977 can u post something helpful as having none of it what u mean having no breakfast 

 

4 minutes ago, Karl. said:

None of what...?

Apologies, it shows the high collapsing and only hanging on in the far south, however giving a milder influence and winds off the Atlantic , unlike the GFS which is still showing a colder continental influence in the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

Apologies, it shows the high collapsing and only hanging on in the far south, however giving a milder influence and winds off the Atlantic , unlike the GFS which is still showing a colder continental influence in the south.

GEFS looking similar to the latter stages of the ECM. After many let downs I'm not getting my hopes up just yet! Although it is looking cold into next week with some frost & snow chances which is better than can be said for much of this winter! 

 

ECM  day 10 OP ecm240.thumb.gif.5f0fbe7744eaa67df25cb5e GEFS day 10 mean gefs240.thumb.png.0c215bbb4df561dbae9e87

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Yes ECM the trough is too shallow or pattern too flat, whichever way you want to look at it - end result the mild Atlantic sector does not get mixed out enough to produce snow.

Steve mentions p5 in GEFS but this is one run of a small cluster that go for such a well situated and aligned Scandi high, there are many more that go for a quick flattening of the  pattern and another cluster that manage a weak continental flow for a time. The 850 temp charts show that cold snap is favoured over a cold spell.

graphe3_1000_259_117___.gif

Though the 2m temp charts are a little more telling as we can clearly pick  out the cold cluster as some of the runs with the weaker continental flow have surface cold but not colder 850's

graphe6_1000_259_117___.gif

Given ECM reluctance to develop a sharper trough and Scandi high or continental flow and that the majority of GFS ensembles support a cold snap at best it is probably best not to build hopes too much at the moment though clearly the potential is there for a decent cold spell to develop.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Let's look on the bright side, the Gfs 00z shows much colder conditions developing next week from midweek with ice days and a significant snow risk, especially across England and the southeast looks like the sweet spot!...good luck :cold-emoji:

00_135_uk2mtmp.png

00_159_uk2mtmp.png

00_135_preciptype.png

00_159_preciptype.png

00_177_preciptype.png

00_183_uk2mtmp.png

00_198_uk2mtmpmin.png

00_198_mslp850.png

Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The ECMWF-GFS anomaly charts this morning perhaps indicate the first signs by them of the flow turning more westerly in the 3rd week of February

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NOAA 6-10 last evening still had the flow N of W but the 8-14 had the flow shown as about westerly. So it looks as if the change will be underway after about another week?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
On ‎2016‎-‎02‎-‎10 at 11:39 PM, nick sussex said:

disruption the high to the ne would be able to advect more cold west. Too much energy goes ne rather than se.

This Scandi high development does seem to have popp

In long range mild westerlies seems to come back with high pressure over C Europé again, just let the N/E winds continue instead

 

Mild Westerlies.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Yes, very nice ENS this morning from GFS 0z

MT8_London_ens.png

And this beauty -- I should Cocoa!

gens-10-1-204.pnggens-10-0-204.png

fun for the soutrh

gens-10-2-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

A look at the GEFS postage stamps and GEFS mean leaves me less than convinced with the ECMWF high res progressiveness of returning us to cyclonic westerlies. The 00z GEFS mean and good number of invidual members point to the Atlantic and Scandi ridges bridging across the UK to bring a mid-latitude high pressure belt - though the far north perhaps exposed to more of an Atlantic cyclonic westerly influence.

GEFS stamps t+168 and 240

gfs_ens168.thumb.png.a6f3ec1b7470d9148f2gfs_ens240.thumb.png.eca93ffc78fec8d59ac

GEFS mean T+168 and 240

gefs_z500a_nh168.thumb.png.f464b370490begefs_z500a_nh240.thumb.png.a38dcc284dcdc

 

GEFS mslp mean for North Yorkshire as a UK mid-point looks to stay fairly high until late in the run:

56bda49f007e4_GEFSNYorks.thumb.png.58d74

Funny, it's normally GFS that's too progressive in returning us to cyclonic westerlies, rather than ECMWF

The differences EC vs GFS occur quite early on with regards to pressure to the east, EC is hasty to move ridging over Scandinavia so is quite quick to drop heights here, whereas GFS and UKMO have blocking high at t+144 over Scandi/Baltic Sea which is harder to remove and thus creates better angled trough disruption further west over the UK.

Let's hope the GFS sticks to its guns and the ECMWF backtracks.

 

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Still looking at Sunday - by tea time, ECM has numerous snow showers for northern England, and the cold sector is chasing and catching a band of precipitation in the south:

160212_0000_66.png

Next Wednesday, there's going to be some serious IMBYism in here if the current set-up persists. ECM has stalling front in a thin line from Scarborough to Exeter, maybe 50 miles either side

160212_0000_144.png

GFS has it 100 miles east:

144-574UK.GIF?12-0

But both have narrow lines through the country. Hit the sweet spot and there may be a disruptive snow - 100 miles west or east could mean nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
  • Weather Preferences: Most except high humidity and thawing snow.
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham

I was going to comment on the consistency of GFS recent runs last night. You can hardly separate them up to day 6. And now it's done it again. It is consistent but is it right?. Hope so!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Supreme consistency from the GFS 06z

if we compare the 00z 126 v the 06z 120

theta E charts the location of the 8c line has a variation of about 15 miles - that is hard to beat at day 5

00z 126

image.thumb.jpg.4863df6f3e8953970a9810be

 

 

06z 120

image.thumb.jpg.798fe2b4735242c49e4ef258

What it means is the front line of PPN WILL be all snow

 

let see of the 144-168 chart can muster a -10c over the UK

s

yes steve theres absolutely no doubt in my mind the gfs is a corker and clearly can see the wedge of warmer uppers being squeezed out as you been suggesting whats also note worthy is the fact that only a few days ago the cold in eastern Europe being swept away with nothing note worthy to tap into in regards to cold uppers!

now we have cold continental flow cold stagnant air enriched from our north east into the uk mildest uppers far nw and west sw but possible that things could well drift even further west bringing the sw into the colder set up.

interesting also that we have a respectable scandi ridge through to uk and  the azores building into the atlantic showing signs of extending and linking with the scandi heights possible also is the continuation of lows diving through nw se into Europe with possible undercuts.

on the flip side we could also see the jet going north bringing a battle ground situation where high pressure could dominate over the uk but holding cold surface temps but dryer.

all in all very interesting gfs and this model is wanting uk to stay cold the ecm is the daddy model so reluctant to ramp to much but good posts steve I see your line of thinking and hopefully it all comes together.

one snow event on the southcoast would most certainly put a smile on the snow starved southcoast crew.

stays cold to our east especially the se right through till the end of the 6z gfs run,

gfs-1-192.thumb.png.c3486af67a5a39d140f3 with frost and snow potential

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
8 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

I was going to comment on the consistency of GFS recent runs last night. You can hardly separate them up to day 6. And now it's done it again. It is consistent but is it right?. Hope so!

I think it probably got the pattern correct  your right it has been pretty consistant    however im sure the snow line will certainly move one way or another   fingers crossed

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Yes as has been said very consistent from the 06z very unlike the gfs, but at present the SW misses out we need the snow line further west so the whole of the UK can get in on the party.  But the snow risk is certainly there especially for London and the SE where the cold air hangs on for dear life. But expect the snow line to change at still 6 days away it's nowhere near a done deal. 

image.thumb.jpg.5958d2815a24feac29ca80feimage.thumb.jpg.d1f18450d5151f17039a1f30image.thumb.jpg.8a9dfd09dd3b6ba0e3dbc5bdkimage.thumb.jpg.54d250e71b2478bda2ebefee

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

It's not very often il say this but the GFS has been extremely consistent for days now and I personally will be very very surprised to see this proved wrong.  I'm confident we will see another epic fail by the once infamous ECM which really does begin to raise question marks on its reliability.  If it does then it's 3 times in 1 week which is very unusual. 

Next week looks cold now . And with a good scandi ridge in place linking up with the Arctic high which will give a strong negative AO signature going into next week and last night I mentioned about that pushing some deep cold air south into Europe . You can see that modeld well on the 06z with some really deep cold moving south from the pole. That brings more interest moving forward and will only help enhance the cold stagnant air and make things harder to budge . Interesting times 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
9 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

one snow event on the southcoast would most certainly put a smile on the snow starved southcoast crew.

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

What it means is the front line of PPN WILL be all snow

I'll eat my own arms if it snows in Bournemouth from that setup. Further east along the coast might be a different matter but from Portsmouth west i'd be thinking about driving in land a little bit. We've been here so many times on the south coast - I can hear Alexis now on South today saying "falling as rain along the coast but further inland there could be a dusting".

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