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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 9 and quite a difference over the Eastern US between size and depth of the low pressure ...FI starts early in you ask me, things could easily become interesting for coldies by mid month, even if nothing showing yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Doxford park,Sunderland,2 miles inland,283 ft asl
  • Location: Doxford park,Sunderland,2 miles inland,283 ft asl

Can anyone hazard a guess about when the El nino will fade away this year (if at all).

Historically what type of weather patterns follows a severe El nino?

Will we see a decent summer followed by a decent winter etc,or is this just how our Winters will be in the Northern hemisphere for the foreseeable future?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Hi JH

No please do , would be interesting to see

 

ok but will have to be tomorrow before I do it?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Snow phall said:

Can anyone hazard a guess about when the El nino will fade away this year (if at all).

Historically what type of weather patterns follows a severe El nino?

Will we see a decent summer followed by a decent winter etc,or is this just how our Winters will be in the Northern hemisphere for the foreseeable future?

Not sure next winter will be affected by the El Niño this year - next year has an Easterly QBO, heading closer into Solar minimum and a poss La Niña - surely chance of a colder winter .

As for this summer, not sure what that has in store - hopefully something dry!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
9 minutes ago, Snow phall said:

Can anyone hazard a guess about when the El nino will fade away this year (if at all).

Historically what type of weather patterns follows a severe El nino?

Will we see a decent summer followed by a decent winter etc,or is this just how our Winters will be in the Northern hemisphere for the foreseeable future?

I've seen recent articles where it has been suggested it is possible that a transition to La Nina could occur in late Summer/early Autumn given the strength of the current El Nino. If that was the case then I would think if there is a neutral period between Nino and Nina around spring and summer and La Nina does indeed not develop until late summer/early autumn as has been suggested by some, I would say there would be more of a chance of a warm summer. There were even suggestions in the past week that the Nino could get another wind and strengthen further so who knows.

A transition to Nina in the spring/summer on the other hand could mean the summer ends up cooler but not necessarily wetter. 

All in all it depends on how quickly the Nino weakens and in turn the Nina develops.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
2 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

Just look at where the big doggy looking thing has its legs little UK is in a warm section and in the background over by the north pacific in Alaskan waters you see the smaller pup lapping up the two dogs look like they are next to each other I've been to the pub so it looked surreal 

oh yeah i see it now.... anyways some changes on the the pub run tonight with a better looking run than the earlier runs... lets see if this continues into tomorrows runs and we can build something that will please most in here.... i still have a funny feeling we may see another WTF moment in the next week or so...no science to it just a feeling i have...might be wrong then again you never know...

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

sensible model discussion please....thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Ensembles on the 18z tonight certainly showing the cooling trend there.

Although these temps would only produce cold rain for the majority on here it is interesting none the less, pretty solid agreement, I will keep an open mind a little longer for developments I guess, surely we are due an upgrade or a nice surprise or two at the tale end of this long and tiresome Winter.:)

 

London ensembles:

graphe_ens3.php.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA somewhat better but would only be a toppler

 

JN252-21.GIF?01-12

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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Just now, fergieweather said:

There's growing, if still tentative, signs now (bolstered further by today's EC Monthly on the heels of GloSea5, plus the EC 30d MJO outlook) for a likely change of type further into this month towards a more settled & colder flavour. The transitional period mid-month (post-MSLP rises to W) is tricky for models: may be transitory, but ditto any return to mobility thereafter looks potentially short-lived, ahead of something drier/chillier to close this winter.

Hopefully for the cold lovers in the uk there will be a few snow chances if the high pressure pushes far enough north.  Maybe the odd glimpses of sliders moving south East creating a snow storm or two for Ireland, Wales and sw England.  Wishful thinking yeah Ian 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Both ukmo and gfs looking very very disturbed and very wet over the coming week or so.

In fact gfs is pretty unsettled all the way through out to lala land with no end in sight to this Atlantic steam train, its not even funny anymore.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Well this mornings UKMO and GFS not looking particularly cold, but what they are showing, is that focus shifts to the south of the UK who could be in the firing line for some pretty strong winds in the mid range. 

 

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The EC32 seems to change every time it updates, but I guess that's no surprise given the timeframes and not the most straightforward phase of winter,  El Niño waning, Strat warming event, etc. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well the ukmo gfs and Ecm look disappointing yet again this morning. Wet with more gales for at least the next 7 days. I know Ian f says things may settle down later into Feb with some frosts. But I think it's time for me to thrown the dam towel in think the writing was on the wall this winter as soon as we saw the super strong El Niño. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the ukmo gfs and Ecm look disappointing yet again this morning. Wet with more gales for at least the next 7 days. I know Ian f says things may settle down later into Feb with some frosts. But I think it's time for me to thrown the dam towel in think the writing was on the wall this winter as soon as we saw the super strong El Niño. 

Your towel was never out of the ring :wink:

GFS an outlier pretty quickly in the run.

More possibilities of snow today as well as tonight and Saturday.

 

The northern half of the UK getting ever colder.It wouldn't take much shift for more areas to see cold.

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C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_graphe_ens3.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
12 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the ukmo gfs and Ecm look disappointing yet again this morning. Wet with more gales for at least the next 7 days. I know Ian f says things may settle down later into Feb with some frosts. But I think it's time for me to thrown the dam towel in think the writing was on the wall this winter as soon as we saw the super strong El Niño. 

This looks like a pattern that i set in for a while which make bring transient northerly's, so for the north and west there's chances of seeing snow i would have thought. But not the type that isn't followed immediately by the dreaded drip drip sound. And for those of us further south, as time goes by, our chance of seeing any winter-type weather relies increasingly on some influence from the east and the models would have to show a dramatic change to what they currently show for that to happen

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I think the story will be the battering we look like getting from Sat onwards with deep LPs and sub LPs crossing the heart of the U.K. Have to say the deep troughing is here but again cannot position itself to engage cold air from north as no riffing is able to establish in the Atlantic and thus although extreme weather gets us it ain't of the cold variety apart from the usual caveats it would seem.  I think there'll be some very tricky 6 nations games this weekend...

The ECM has cold interest at days 9-10 as LP crosses the southern half UK and there maybe cold enough air on northern flank.  But that's some way away model wise

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The ecm is a better run than last night's and not just at days 9 and 10. Just to prove I am not always negative lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree the Ecm 00z looks better next week in terms of colder weather eventually reaching most of the uk with the jet heading further south! there would be some wintry ppn and frosts next week in the north / north west and then extending south and east!:D:cold:

ecmt850.168.png

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ecm500.240.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
10 hours ago, johnholmes said:

ok but will have to be tomorrow before I do it?

here with full 13 pages of January anomaly charts and daily comments as requested

 

second pdf for net weather-2 feb 2016.pdf

 

for what it is worth the apparent 'solid' charts last evening have had a hole knocked in them this morning with the GFS output dropping the main idea the 3 previously had. It could be just a wobble but it tends to add more uncertainty to whether any meaningful westerly cold incursion will occur. I would still suggest it is about 60:40 on it happening, last evening would have been 75;20!

The airflow is still cold rather than mild but it will have to cross the whole Atlantic.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY FEB 2ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  The UK will see rising pressure today as a colder NW flow establishes across the UK for a time with a trough slipping South across the UK later with an increased risk of showers on it's passage. A ridge of High pressure then crosses East over the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 4000ft across many areas of the UK today falling a little further towards 2000ft in the North. Snow showers will give some accumulations again today over Northern mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The message from the Jet Stream today shows the flow continuing to be strong over the next few weeks. The current passage across the UK on a West to East basis sinks South over the weekend and remains quite strong focused towards France before a slow migration North of the flow to the UK again in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the alternating and Low pressure based pattern of weather the UK has seen for most of this Winter with mild and damp weather with rain at times alternating with colder and more showery conditions with some wintry showers over the hills. The winds could be particularly strong and disruptive for a time early next week as deep Low pressure areas cross directly East over the UK. The pattern changes little in the second week with further rain at times with some milder periods once more especially across the South and still windy at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar today to the Operational Run with rain and gales alternating with colder showery spells. By the end of the second week things look likely to have or likely to change little with further West winds, rain and showers at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show some differences today though a sizeable 60% still show a likely West or NW flow across the UK with Low pressure close by to the North or NE with rain and showers in average temperatures. A notable 40% of members show High pressure much closer to the SE of the UK with dry and bright weather with light SW winds for many should this verify.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an increasingly stormy period of weather developing over the weekend as deep Low pressure areas driven by a strong Jet stream cross the UK with severe gales, heavy rain and eventually squally and perhaps wintry showers by the start of next week. Before that happens though a period of mild and damp but still windy conditions look likely for many from Thursday to Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show the unsettled theme continuing as further troughs, both warm and cold cross the UK from the West bringing rain at times and strong winds at times. Over the weekend pressure is shown to fall quickly with more complex troughing over the UK maintaining the very unsettled and windy theme.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM too shows wet and very windy and potentially stormy conditions developing later in the weekend and start to next week. Outside of those weather events short drier and colder periods of weather are possible with showers turning wintry over the hills and the odd night frost. Overall though the end of the run looks as disturbed as ever with the hint of colder conditions developing more widely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is probably the least stormy looking of the big model runs today. Nevertheless it too brings much lower pressure to the South than has been the case of late and allowing all areas to be at risk of heavy rain and/or squally showers from the weekend and through the early to middle part of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very stormy after the weekend with some potentially disruptive weather developing across the UK and not this time just in the North. Low pressure will be powered by a strong Jet Stream and cross the heart of the UK with severe gale or storm force winds and heavy rain followed by showers occurring on a couple of occasions next week with the colder air tucked behind the depressions turning some of the showers wintry over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for Low pressure to lie close to the UK possibly to the NE with the Jet stream a long way South. Pressure is hinted at rising towards Greenland, at least a little and this could at least provide a catalyst for somewhat colder weather to encroach down across the UK from the North at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and potentially stormy conditions next week for all of the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.5 pts to 67.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 48.0 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   I think the worrying theme of this morning's output is the cross model agreement that the UK could see a period of stormy weather at some stage late in the weekend and early next week. It looks that named storms are likely to grace the weather forecasts again by the weekend and this time their impacts could have far more wide reaching effects especially over the South of the UK. Up until the weekend we have another warm sector to pass through with mild and damp period of windy weather over Thursday and Friday. Then a cold front crossing East on Saturday will introduce the very unsettled spell with gales and heavy rain and showers moving West to East across the UK at the weekend. Intense Low pressure areas then look set on a course much further South than lately with all areas at risk of widespread gales or even storm force winds and heavy rain mixed with short colder periods with squally and possibly thundery showers with snow on the hills. Thereafter and towards the second week of the output changes look small with plenty more opportunity for further stormy spells with rain and strong winds likely and just short colder brighter periods as the Jet Stream seems unrelenting in both strength and positioning to prevent Low pressure from crashing into the UK from the Atlantic. So some very interesting weather to come if it's volatile and disruptive weather you like but I'm afraid there is not too much cheer for those looking for cold and frosty weather with snow although I still maintain the colder uppers at times next week especially could produce the odd snowfall almost anywhere across the UK sometime and somewhere.      

Next Update Wednesday February 3rd 2016 from 09:00

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16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

here with full 13 pages of January anomaly charts and daily comments as requested

 

second pdf for net weather-2 feb 2016.pdf

 

for what it is worth the apparent 'solid' charts last evening have had a hole knocked in them this morning with the GFS output dropping the main idea the 3 previously had. It could be just a wobble but it tends to add more uncertainty to whether any meaningful westerly cold incursion will occur. I would still suggest it is about 60:40 on it happening, last evening would have been 75;20!

The airflow is still cold rather than mild but it will have to cross the whole Atlantic.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

What is the other 5% on JH....a massive blizzard followed by a 2 week freeze...:D

Frankly the GFS and UKMO again fail to inspire this morning, we just can't seem to drag any proper cold air southwards, at least not far enough south anyway. ECM does look better and rather more promising for cold in the longer term, but it has done so on several occasions this extended autumn, so again it's hard to get inspired by day 9 and day 10 stuff...especially in view of the fact that by then there will only be a fortnight of meteorological winter left.

 

 

Edited by coldcomfort
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