Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Abyss]

13 minutes ago, andymusic said:

BREAKING NEWS - Southern Ireland just had winds approaching 90mph - heading this way - GULP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

An energy platform 50km to the South of Ireland recorded that gust

[Ice Day]

Those long sufferer's on here are well used to the roller-coaster ride that following each and every run provide.  However, what I have noticed over the last few days is that this has been a slow burner with tiny improvements run on run over the last 2-3 days.  If these 'upgrades' keep coming, we could have a very decent spell of cold weather nationwide.

 Of course there's a long way to go, more runs needed blah blah blah, but our hopes are justifiably higher than at any other time this winter.  

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

Thats shows me missing out once again.

It  does on that chart but seeing its at 156   i wouldnt worry   could end up being rain, snow further north or south  loads of times for change

[bigdog1]

How many times this winter have we been here with these models and then two days later a complete downgrade happens 

[weirpig]

The control as the slider aswell  fingers crossed  however  precipitation as snow further north   all subject to change

Edited February 7, 2016 by weirpig

[snowray]

Still there, further North on the control. Nothing set in stone by any means, could end up further North or South of course.

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

How many times this winter have we been here with these models and then two days later a complete downgrade happens 

Preceding the January cold spell there were some amazing charts about 10 days before the cold spell started but they gradually downgraded. However stella charts showing for an outcome 5 days or closer is more encouraging 

[karlos1983]

18 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 18z shows a snowy spell next weekend across southern UK and certainly the snow starved southern coldies deserve a good dumping since Scotland has had snow at times this winter...time the south had some too!

 

I'm off to the model bank with that chart Karl. Liking the growing trend to a snowy outbreak in the coming days from today's runs.

 

 

[Snowman.]

The GFS is rivalling March 2013 with the channel low slider. Amazing what a little wedge of heights north can accomplish. 

[wishingforsnow]

Its starting to feel like the preceding period of some recent classic UK cold spells with the charts upgrading as the event came closer. Please let this trend continue....

[Allseasons-Si]

Just looking back at the archives

1st feb 18z for the 14th of feb

3rd of feb for the 14th of feb

and tonights 18z for the 14th of feb

just shows how things can change

 

 

Edited February 8, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Snowy L]

Has to be asked did the SSW give us that weak ridge of High pressure? Very reminiscent of the pattern after the January 2013 SSW. Shame the Azores high is so desperate to join in after the first slider.

[weirpig]

navgem as a slider of sorts aswell  

[Faronstream]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Has to be asked did the SSW give us that weak ridge of High pressure? Very reminiscent of the pattern after the January 2013 SSW. Shame the Azores high is so desperate to join in after the first slider.

Have to ask this, i thought it was good that the Azores high was blocking over N Atlantic but it isn't? (for cold) so the cold air can flow down from the Arctic without any disturbences from Low pressures over N Atlantic?

[Snowy L]

Just now, Faronstream said:

Have to ask this, i thought it was good that the Azores high was blocking over N Atlantic but it isn't? (for cold) so the cold air can flow down from the Arctic without any disturbences from Low pressures over N Atlantic?

In this case it looks like the Azores High ridging North results in splitting the Atlantic lows. Ideally we would prefer the undercut to extend from the Atlantic into France/Germany uninterrupted. We already have the block to our North East, don't need the Azores getting involved.

 

 

[weather eater]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Hideous! I hate storms and would have been on the prozac if I had been in the UK during the last two months. People must be really fed up with this weather. Hopefully the headlines will be moving away from storms and rain to snow and frosts.

 

Indeed we are nick I've already this year had to repair a great chunk of fence and tonight I have left our gates open because they keep taking a battering, absolutely sick to death of storms.

On a more happy note every run at the moment looks better and better and as I said many times before Stella charts in FI no matter how wonderful they look fall over 99% of the time, only 2010 was picked up at long range by the models. It has always seemed odd to me that we almost always see cold spells predicted in the mid to long range fall apart but rarely see one evolve quickly from a base that seems innocuous. Mind you that could be famous last words, it could still be all downhill from here. We saw something similar, what 11-12 years ago, the easterly that never was.

[March]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Hideous! I hate storms and would have been on the prozac if I had been in the UK during the last two months. People must be really fed up with this weather. Hopefully the headlines will be moving away from storms and rain to snow and frosts.

 

It depends where you are. Really not been particularly wet or windy here tbh. It's the same for most of the South and East I guess. 

[Spah1]

That's a slider going into decent uppers. 

Just need the cold a little further south.

[feb1991blizzard]

120 is crucial.

[NorthYorksWeather]

ECM could be the start of spoiler alerts! Blows that low up big time and the difference in uppers at 144 in comparison to last nights 12z is massive. Awesome GFS 0z but op is coldest of ensemble suite, could go either way, bugger off ECM

[Ali1977]

Not a great ECM, nowhere near as cold next weekend....Garden path visit again you think?

[feb1991blizzard]

yes ecm is a disaster

[Gustywind]

The little Icelandic/Scandi wedge we had last night has gone awol, so less cold air digging south and the slider is further north. Still chilly with -4 850s throughout, but wet not snowy.

t168 looks better as at least it clears away SE and the Azores pulls west. North easterly behind the clearing front.

[NorthYorksWeather]

First glance at ECM 168 I thought to myself "Ey up" but then I checked the uppers and because we don't get the slider on Friday there is no decent uppers left to our NE. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Gustywind said:

The little Icelandic/Scandi wedge we had last night has gone awol, so less cold air digging south and the slider is further north. Still chilly with -4 850s throughout, but wet not snowy.

t168 looks better as at least it clears away SE and the Azores pulls west. North easterly behind the clearing front.

can we get a NE potent enough for snow or will the high topple in at 192