Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Allseasons-Si]

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12z 132 hrs18z 126 hrs

watch the easterly come in from this one soon,could be a stonking snow machine

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[weirpig]

Just look at that low sliding 

[Frosty.]

59 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really for see these charts verifying ? 

All I can say is the wintry potential has increased today, surely you can see that too? i recently gave up on this very poor winter but it now looks like some of us will have a good chance of seeing snow..soon!

[snowray]

Here we go, lovely chart.

Edited February 7, 2016 by snowray

[Aaki Khan]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go, lovely chart.

Lovely 18z .. snowy underide.

With Love. HAPPY VALENTINES..

Edited February 7, 2016 by Aaki Khan
add

[Ice Day]

Cracking run so far.  168 is looking just peachy

[stratty]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here we go, lovely chart.

 

[andymusic]

WOW & WOW - Wales along with England could be slam dunked here with snow - let's hope this isn't one of those off on one 18zs - what a slider low classic atlantic dumping!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mother nature rocks]

Lovely negatively tilted depressions again. Increased cold over UK and sliding perfectly from NW/SE. Could be some serious issues with the white stuff come next weekend. What a great run so far 18z!!!

Could be a lot of people picking up their towels if this continues.

Enjoy 

[wishingforsnow]

13 minutes ago, Karl. said:

All I can say is the wintry potential has increased today, surely you can see that too? i recently gave up on this very poor winter but it now looks like some of us will have a good chance of seeing snow..soon!

Indeed and these charts are showing a cold outcome for a closer timeframe as opposed to 'Day 10' that never ends up verifying.

A White Valentine's Day could be on the cards if this continues! 

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Jason M]

Very good pub run. Theta and 850s look okay  so for once talk of snow may be justified. This does have support from some of the prev ensemble suite and good to see an opp run pick up on it given the range.

Not buying yet, as personally i want to see some consistency first.Also, be wary of GFS as it usually over plays any snow signal.

Edit: the lack of longevity is also well signposted in the ensembles so if it happens, enjoy anything that does fall.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Jason M

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Very good pub run. Theta and 850s look okay  so for once talk of snow may be justified. This does have support from some of the prev ensemble suite and good to see an opp run pick up on it given the range.

Be wary of GFS though as it usually over plays any snow signal.

Not buying yet though, as personally i want to see some consistency first.

Edit: the lack of longevity is also well signposted in the ensembles so if it happens, so enjoy anything that does fall.

M Taylor did mention sliding LP's with snow on its  Northern flank.....so you just never know

[wishingforsnow]

Would be nice to see the Ensembles upgrade to colder following these recent model runs

[damianslaw]

Yes GFS showing significant trough disruption/slider low for the weekend, and cold uppers digging in from the NE, meaning a possible low level snow event for places on the northern side of the trough.

I know we shouldn't mention BBC forecasts in this thread, but Matt Taylor did say snow on northern flank of low pressure come the weekend, but then glanced over the weekend, perhaps they are seeing the signals.. but right to be cautious.

The major player appears to be the very strong Russian block, forcing low pressure to anchor south and disrupt and thus bolster developing heights to the north and enabling a quicker injection of cold uppers to our NE. Unlike earlier in the winter, once we get to mid Feb, heights to our NE often become much more difficult to cast aside and increasingly hold there own against the atlantic..

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

M Taylor did mention sliding LP's with snow on its  Northern flank.....so you just never know

Good to see charts like that. Usually (some) people scream snow when the facts dont support it, but the depth of cold is present this time IMHO. I'd really like to see a couple of frosts first though as soil temps will be  warm and that won't aid settling given the relative lateness of the season.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Jason M

[nick sussex]

Certainly an action packed GFS 18hrs run so far. Good that it didn't overdevelop that shortwave near Greenland like the ECM.

Past T192hrs not as good as the 12hrs upstream but that's a long way off. Earlier  within T48hrs it brings back a chance of some marginal snow for the far south.

Whats quite unusual about that sub 528 dam air that heads across the south is that its originated over the ne of Canada and gets pushed east. Normally to get 528 dam you'd need this coming down from the nw/n.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by nick sussex

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes GFS showing significant trough disruption/slider low for the weekend, and cold uppers digging in from the NE, meaning a possible low level snow event for places on the northern side of the trough.

I know we shouldn't mention BBC forecasts in this thread, but Matt Taylor did say snow on northern flank of low pressure come the weekend, but then glanced over the weekend, perhaps they are seeing the signals.. but right to be cautious.

 Unlike earlier in the winter, once we get to mid Feb, heights to our NE often become much more difficult to cast aside and increasingly hold there own against the atlantic..

Interesting summary, and with interest for those who are seeking a decent cold spell  without the pesky Atlantic breaking through after a week this time.

[phil nw.]

Of course no forecasters will commit to snowfall 5 days away but a look at recent fax's show the pattern and incursion of colder air from the north is being modeled further south as each run is issued.

compare recent fax's for Weds 12noon  this can be seen.

       

small increments each time and the increasing sign of the Icelandic high.Now we notice these trends in the GFS runs.

Edited February 7, 2016 by phil nw.

[Mair Snaw]

Picks up towel... shakes it off rolls it up and puts it back in the cupboard..... could it be??? what a fantastic day of model watching some big upgrades if they are still there in the mornings runs then maybe just maybe we are in with a shout....

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs(p) 12z going for two trough disruptions

126 hrs

162 hrs

and,just for fun,a northerly at 276 hrs

 

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

BREAKING NEWS - Southern Ireland just had winds approaching 90mph - heading this way - GULP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hideous! I hate storms and would have been on the prozac if I had been in the UK during the last two months. People must be really fed up with this weather. Hopefully the headlines will be moving away from storms and rain to snow and frosts.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

#What's  that coming over the hill,is it a scandi,is it a scandyyyy#

could this be GP's torpedo?

Edited February 7, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Daniel*]

Bleeding heck a good run who cares about not having a prolonged cold spell several snow events will suffice nothing worse than a lengthy dry spell of very cold weather.  

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows a snowy spell next weekend across southern UK and certainly the snow starved southern coldies deserve a good dumping since Scotland has had snow at times this winter...time the south had some too!

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Hideous! I hate storms and would have been on the prozac if I had been in the UK during the last two months. People must be really fed up with this weather. Hopefully the headlines will be moving away from storms and rain to snow and frosts.

 

Absolutely Nick. My assumptions are that an unexpected resurfacing of colder conditions could be on the cards due to a combination of Storm Imogen and the MJO - after it seemed the Strat warming was going to ruin everything hence the Met backtracking on the initial 'colder February'. And hopefully the model output will continue to stay in favour for the coldies, and we get lucky with the cold end to February back on the cards