Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I have seen the  Ensembles and know how to interpret them but the MET are not looking at it with rose tinted specs as some are on here

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Winds easing on Tuesday with showers moving southwards across the UK. Light winds with prolonged dry, sunny spells for many on Wednesday. Showers and windy weather for Thursday. Chilly nights.

Updated at: 1530 on Sun 7 Feb 2016

looks as if they are not speculating either way to me - showers of what? - sitting on the fence me thinks

Edited February 7, 2016 by andymusic

[wishingforsnow]

26 minutes ago, weather eater said:

It's the expectation that it could develop further that has got people interested. Great charts that ninety nine times out of a hundred just end up disappearing as they come within a realistic time frame are pointless. At the moment we are seeing the opposite, poor prospects looking better by the day. Of course the most likely outcome is that nothing will come of it. But that's got to change someday and maybe just maybe this is it.

Last time we were in this position in January we had just been battered by 2 months worth of storms. People had no hope for anything cold whatsoever arriving then slowly charts with cold potential started to appear and upgrade and we did get 10 cold storm free days (which could have been extended had it not been for Alex ruining everything and the PV regrouping). This time I hope we can get something like that again or even better. Really hoping the models are reflecting another change 

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Paul]

I feel like a bit of a stuck record here, but can we keep it to the models in here rather than met forecasts and the like, thanks!

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I know this debate over whether we are set to get what is described as cold or average Temperatures this coming week could run and run and in truth, let's all just wait and see what happens. I certainly favour an outlook where we will have an increasing chances of seeing the phrases "hill snow", "marginality" and "transient" wintriness becoming the buzzwords in impending forecasts. The only downer I perceived from viewing the Countryfile forecast (in truth this needs to be discussed elsewhere) was that the Temperatures were largely average with a spread of 3 to 4 far North to 8s, 9s and 10s down South, which is nothing BUT average, sadly. 

 

I would suggest however that the timing of precipitation and those heavy showery bands is paramount and at times, ICE will be a more pressing issue outside of the very windy and stormy events in time for the morning commute. Plenty to ponder for the professional forecasters and it is in times like these that just a couple of degrees either way can make all the difference between us receiving plain ole rain or something more magical. I wish those in a forecasting job this coming week all the best of luck. 

Edited February 7, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[weather eater]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

looks as if they are not speculating either way to me - showers of what? - sitting on the fence me thinks

Very wise of them., I am optimistic but we know that if it can go wrong it will go wrong and on a tiny island small changes have big impacts.

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

looks as if they are not speculating either way to me - showers of what? - sitting on the fence me thinks

Yes I think they are sitting on the fence until a clearer signal emerges that causes them to support a snowy outcome. Sometimes it can even be 1-2 days before. 

[wishingforsnow]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

I know this debate over whether we are set to get cold or average Temperatures this coming week could run and run. I certainly favour an outlook where we will have an increasing likelihood of the phrases "hill snow", "marginality" and "transient" wintriness becoming the buzzwords of the impending forecasts. The only downer I perceived from viewing the Countryfile forecast (in truth this needs to be discussed elsewhere) was that the Temperatures were largely average with a spread of 3 to 4 far North to 8s, 9s and 10s down South, which is nothing BUT average, sadly.

 

I would suggest however that the timing of precipitation and those heavy showery bands is paramount and at times, ICE will be a more pressing issue outside of the very windy and stormy events. Plenty to ponder for the professional forecasters and it is in times like these that just a couple of degrees can make all the difference between plain ole rain or something more magical, I wish those in a forecasting job all the best of luck.

I recall during the last cold spell, Countryfile temperatures for the South were often a bit higher than what it actually was, like saying it would be 7-9 degrees during the day but it was actually 4-5. And there was plenty of daytime air frosts too 

[Timmytour]

The Pub Run cometh....but does the Iceman?

Feel this to be a bit of a crucial one.....a continuing trend towards colder outcomes could signal that once and for all we are onto something.

A move away from previous promising runs migh indicate that all the models are interested in this winter is teasing us!

[phil nw.]

The overall upper pattern for this week at least has been well modeled with the Atlantic trough heading se into Europe,of course the devil as they say in the surface detail.This applies especially later in the week when we see the more southerly tracking lows moving across the south and into polar air.

Certainly interest for possible snow further south increases towards Friday onward.

T120hrs from all 3 main models.

a very marginal event of course and it will come down to last minute details on the track of the low and how much cold air gets pulled into the rain area as it hits the cold to it's north.

A cold spell it is though and a look at the gefs surface temperatures shows this for the coming week or more.

Aberdeen and Warks.

Maybe not a classic pattern with cross polar blocking but the pv is now less organised to enable just enough surface heights to our north to push the Atlantic jet further south to enable polar air to filter down over the UK.

Fax T72hrs

shows the transition to the colder pattern as surface heights start to rise further north which will push the track of succeeding lows further south. 

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I recall during the last cold spell, Countryfile temperatures for the South were often a bit higher than what it actually was, like saying it would be 7-9 degrees during the day but it was actually 4-5. And there was plenty of daytime air frosts too 

Good point, didn't know that was the case. Worth noting their Temperatures are projected town and city Temperatures too. 

Edited February 7, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, wishingforsnow said:

I recall during the last cold spell, Countryfile temperatures for the South were often a bit higher than what it actually was, like saying it would be 7-9 degrees during the day but it was actually 4-5. And there was plenty of daytime air frosts too 

gfs was pushing for 7 in these parts for today but we struggled to get 5 degrees with some sleet and snow mixed in when the front hit around early afternoon and then we had 4 degrees - no doubt some of those temps if not all are city/town temps with countryside temps being lower - I would imagine hundreds of years ago temps would have been that bit lower as we didn't have the megatropolises then so most areas were "countryside" - allowing the colder temps to get a hold a lot easier. They struggle a lot more these days with our heat driven cities.

[wishingforsnow]

10 minutes ago, weather eater said:

Very wise of them., I am optimistic but we know that if it can go wrong it will go wrong and on a tiny island small changes have big impacts.

Yes as some runs this evening have shown its not yet a clear cut outcome to cold and that positioning could have a major impact on what we end up with - as at the moment different scenarios are possible. So the Beeb and Met can't call anything until a clear outcome is shown.

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, andymusic said:

 

Well things are desperate when the ECM has this output and all the talk is of snow.

Not a good run at all. Run this lot through and tell me its going to be below average?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Well things are desperate when the ECM has this output and all the talk is of snow.

Not a good run at all. Run this lot through and tell me its going to be below average?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

I think that's one of the milder ensembles showing in that chart?

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[damianslaw]

Interesting model output today and for a change UKMO, ECM and GFS are all in agreement up to the 144 hr timeframe, and both ECM and GFS up to 240hrs, quite rare in recent weeks!

What they show is a cooling trend, with low pressure taking a more southerly direct path over central Britain with ridge/small height development to our north, not a common development. Lots of rain for many but with temps around average for the time of year, freezing level quite low as well, with thicknesses hovering around the 528 dam line, dropping below this in the north, so good chance of snow to low levels perhaps and not necessarily Scotland only - a watch and see. In another winter, the synoptics shown today would likely yield a preety cold end to the week, with a cold pool to tap into to the north east, alas we don't have that at the moment, but it wouldn't take long for a cold pool to establish itself.

However, both ECM and GFS are keen to sweep the weak height development aside and pull the azores back NE, but for a short duration with a preety potent PM blast thereafter, indeed with the very cold pool developing over NE Canada there is much logic in any NW feed during the second half of February being very cold indeed, enough to bring snow to many low levels in the north at least.

So lots of interest today, possible slider low/trough disruption territory later next week, and then a possible potent PM attack the week after.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

For some sensible ideas read 

Singularity, Polar Maritime

phil nw.

@johnholmes,don't forget yourself too

just to add that,i wouldn't be supprised if some folk(new members) left this forum with all the bickering going off on here,it's getting a bit rediculous now and i feel sorry for the mods that have to deel with it,sorry mods,had to get that one off my chest

back to the models and i have to say that for the first time in yonks,that there is (at the moment) some consistancy at 144 hrs on the 12z from the big four

ECM,GFS,UKMO and GEM

the big red circle as you can see highlight's that big russian block,and the smaller red circle showing a shallow block to our north and this in subseqence is forcing trough disruption SE into Europe as you can see by the yellow arrow,if we can get this trough disruption to t96 hrs and sooner, i would be a happy chappy

heading up here this thursday,and will post some pics and vids when i get back sunday morning

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Scafell-Pike/forecasts/978

i hope that most of us will get our snow fix this week,good luck

oh!!! nice photos Nick,do you have any invitations

 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I think that's one of the milder ensembles showing in that chart?

 

Those are not in any way shape or form cold ensembles and the OP which I showed is not the mildest

[wishingforsnow]

Encouraging model consistency for a cooling trend. Hoping it doesn't go pear shaped again. The fact that we managed a decent length period of seasonable weather in January is an encouragment imo.

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@johnholmes,don't forget yourself too

just to add that,i wouldn't be supprised if some folk(new members) left this forum with all the bickering going off on here,it's getting a bit rediculous now and i feel sorry for the mods that have to deel with it,sorry mods,had to get that one off my chest

back to the models and i have to say that for the first time in yonks,that there is (at the moment) some consistancy at 144 hrs on the 12z from the big four

ECM,GFS,UKMO and GEM

the big red circle as you can see highlight's that big russian block,and the smaller red circle showing a shallow block to our north and this in subseqence is forcing trough disruption SE into Europe as you can see by the yellow arrow,if we can get this trough disruption to t96 hrs and sooner, i would be a happy chappy

heading up here this thursday,and will post some pics and vids when i get back sunday morning

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Scafell-Pike/forecasts/978

i hope that most of us will get our snow fix this week,good luck

oh!!! nice photos Nick,do you have any invitations

 

very good post Russian block lows sliding se theres really every reason to be more optimistic if colder and wintry weather it is you want.

incredibly windy here now on the south coast really exciting week of weather and model watching to come.

I might slowly walk and grab my towel if charts carry on showing the strong Russian block advancing west or nw.

[snowray]

I see that the South coast snow barrier is doing its job exceptionally well on this run, snow in the channel....

[SMU]

T114

best run of the day with a clean ENE developing -

very cold air filtering in from the NE

almost a boom chart ...

s

 

[Cloud 10]

Cold upgraded at 120 hrs on the 18z.

 

[Ice Day]

So here we are on the 18z and the incremental improvements continue to be seen.  Out to 120 and the uppers are getting better again...

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Cold upgraded at 120 hrs on the 18z.

 

Darn you Cloud 10.  Beat me to it!!!!

[wishingforsnow]

18z 

I was hoping it wouldn't backtrack or throw up an entirely different outcome

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow