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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

I think guys we have all done well to get though this winter!!! Chasing chasing chasing (if your a coldie) God bless.we can chase again next winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne

Could this be a start of upgrades for cold? Likely to change but at least this is at 144hrs and not 168+

Probably going to get blown away by 168 now I have posted something though..

ECM1-144.gif

Edited by grca
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

It's marginal but with some evaporative cooling if the ppn is heavy then some snow further south isn't out of the question Tuesday night.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

very interesting period T48 to T60.

Hi res models NMM and euro 4 both have it to some degree, nmm has quite a pronounced warm sector that really peps up the precip as it enters into wales and then into the midlands where it largely falls as snow, south of the M4 as rain before the cold digs in behind it.

Euro 4 has everything further south, including the less pronounced warm sector which would see snow/sleet showers south of the M4 during Tuesday. For me indeed the Meto computer generated forecast has sleet for Tuesday.

This could be a major surprise, with upto 10cm in places if the GFS/NMM is anything to go by.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS is holding firm on this mornings run with cool/cold Northerly type flows throughout the run. Winter looks to be arriving at last, With a much more 'seasonal' feel as the Jet tracks South this coming week with Hight's also shown pushing up into Greenland towards the end of the run. Lot's of interest over the coming days..

a.pngb.pngc.png

d.pnge.pngf.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
16 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

very interesting period T48 to T60.

Hi res models NMM and euro 4 both have it to some degree, nmm has quite a pronounced warm sector that really peps up the precip as it enters into wales and then into the midlands where it largely falls as snow, south of the M4 as rain before the cold digs in behind it.

Euro 4 has everything further south, including the less pronounced warm sector which would see snow/sleet showers south of the M4 during Tuesday. For me indeed the Meto computer generated forecast has sleet for Tuesday.

This could be a major surprise, with upto 10cm in places if the GFS/NMM is anything to go by.

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Doesn't look like much to me even if it actually falls as snow, a cm or two at best, maybe a bit more for higher ground. ECM an interesting run this morning though, with some mild height increases into Scandinavia enabling an easterly airflow in the latter part of the run. Some quite cold 850s by t216. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Gusty it depends where you are, precip rates are 4-8mm/hr for some areas for a couple of hours, enough for a very quick accumulation of snow(10cm), at least from nmm. I do think nmm is over playing the warm interaction and it will likely move across as an open wave rather than closed surface low (as per nmm), so precip amount will be less. However its what the models showing so can't be discounted.

Edited by Iceberg
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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Well well well ... GFS 00Z still has snow for southern counties at T60 ... not a small amount either ... I've always thought the GFS is well worth taking seriously inside T72, so could this actually be on? NNM 0.05 is in agreement this morning, too.

Hello would you please post a chart to illustrate this for me I'm a newbie in terms of learning thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Upgrade for cold weather this morning!!!snow line looks to be m4 north as usual lol!!!best places to be for tuesday night at the moment are wales and midlands!!!nmm shows some pretty heavy snow!!!could it be the minor stratospheric warming that is doing this?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
13 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Hello would you please post a chart to illustrate this for me I'm a newbie in terms of learning thanks 

See mine and Icebergs posts above. The precipitation with white lines crossing it represents potential snowfall.

nothing certain of course but highlights potential if things were to fall into place.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Well well well ... GFS 00Z still has snow for southern counties at T60 ... not a small amount either ... I've always thought the GFS is well worth taking seriously inside T72, so could this actually be on? NNM 0.05 is in agreement this morning, too.

Would take it with a pinch of salt for now, it's a very marginal situation and I find GFS tends to have  a cold bias beyond t+48 and will often back off these back edge snow events it shows nearer the time. Can't rule it out though, but FWIW, 00z ECMWF high res not showing snow away from hills of Wales, moors of SW and N England for Tuesday.

Certainly interesting at the end of the medium range and into the extended range from the model this morning, Big Atlantic ridge anomaly showing on the GEFS mean by day 12, and with ridging over northern Norway and NW Russia linking through, we may see the European trough close off with a cold N veering NEly flow develop. Along way off to get there and things could go wrong to prevent this.

gefs_z500a_nh_49.thumb.png.5993cb9f94410

 

20 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Hello would you please post a chart to illustrate this for me I'm a newbie in terms of learning thanks 

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_11.thumb.png.4b0d1f867

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Recalling that the period post 10th was signposted over a week ago as being a period of coldie interest. That was in conjunction with a possible Atlantic amplification to advect some CAA into nw Europe.  We can see the potential via the upper troughing without this ridging so clearly had it verified, we would indeed be looking at some pretty snowy potential for next weekend. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A really big difference this morning with the ECMs view of how much cold there is to the ne to tap into.

The UK just needs a bit of luck now with trough disruption further west. If there's more of that between T144 and T168 and a bit further west there's now enough deep cold to have a good snow event.

The Azores high displacement is at least good news, and there's a bit more interest developing overall.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

GFS -v- everyone else regarding that potential event on Tuesday. And even the GFS has it the most marginal of marginal of situations, snow accumulations would largely be limited to higher ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I've always been in the camp that when there's a warming such as the one at present,we will get a quick reaction.

The GEFS mean shown by Nick above illustrates what may be achieved.

As for this week I'm a little more interested than yesterday but could be even more if the trend continues for the 12s

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfsnh-10-6.png

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
9 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Nick...there is absolutely no way my post was aimed at you....you've always been a beacon of hope clarified with reality presented in easily understandable and educational  concise posts. I could not value or appreciate your input more than I do. Instead I was more referring to the long tecnically sounding posts which always promise jam tomorrow but deliver no more, and in fact a lot less insight,  than taking an average view of the GFS runs from over 300 hours out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

after the  storm the gfs is suggesting  some places  could get some of the white stuff  !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 7TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A Showery WSW flow will be replaced by an occluded front s crossing east over the UK tonight in association with Storm 'Imogen' moving across Northern areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies around 4000ft rising briefly to 5000ft or so for a time tonight ahead of the passage of an occluded front. Snow is likely across Northern hills in particular today and probably again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains generally very strong over the next two weeks. the main angle of attack from it still remains South of the UK over the next week before the flow eases a little more North for a time across the UK before troughing South again late in the period over the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains a very changeable and sometimes volatile period as successive deep Low pressure areas move across the Atlantic and the UK each bringing it's own spell of gales and rain followed by more showery conditions. Temperatures will remain near average or a little below in the drier and brighter phases between the weather systems and some snowfall can be expected at times mostly on Northern hills but not exclusively so especially later.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with rain and showers around on most days and while gales or even severe gales are likely through Week 1 the theme of a slow transition to drier conditions at times in the South is shown as Low pressure slowly moves to a more Northerly latitude through the second week with High pressure to the South having at least some influence down here at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show nearly all members with winds between SW and NW over the UK in 14 days with unsettled conditions with rain at times still the main focus of the weather. The degree of extent of High pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure close to the North remains the main focal differences between members.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows another wet and Atlantic driven weather pattern to come again over the coming week with gales or severe gales and heavy rain at times as Low pressure areas continue to move across the Atlantic and over the South of the UK with Wednesday currently the only day which looks like a much quieter if colder and dry day for many

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today also show unsettled conditions this week with multiple troughs and Low pressure areas bringing gales, rain and showers across the UK at times with snow possible especially on Northern hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows wet weather the main feature as the UK remains under deep Low pressure areas throughout much of the period with just very short periods between weather systems when the weather may improve slightly from an other wise wet and windy spell with snow at times over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain alternating with showers across the UK with only very short periods of quieter weather in between systems.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a very unsettled spell to come over the next week with deep Low pressure areas totally dominant over or near the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills. The winds will also remain very strong at times though there will be some less windy periods mixed in too when it will be rather cold with some snowfall possible over the hills. The unsettled cycle does appear to break by Day 10 as High pressure steadily builds North through the Atlantic and bringing a cold Northerly across the UK for a time late in the period with wintry showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows a bias towards a NW flow between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the NW with the Jet stream flooding SE just to the SW of the UK giving further rain and showers across the UK with snow on hills and temperatures near to average overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to maintain volatile and windy Low pressure based conditions across the UK with just various unsubstantiated escape routes to the pattern hinted at later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 49.7 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There remains little overall relief from the models this morning in what is becoming the most Atlantic dominated Winter that I have seen for many years. The main difference at the moment is the position of the Jet Stream which has migrated further South recently and allowed deep Low pressure areas to affect the South as much as the North which up until now has seen the worst of the wrath that such storms have thrown at us. This week sees little overall in the change of patterning so we have to expect more of the same I'm afraid with rain and gales still a large feature of the weather. Winds will be a notable feature especially tomorrow over the South as storm 'Imogen' moves across the North and delivers the potential for storm force winds for a time across the South tomorrow before easing later. Thereafter through the week there will be further spells of wind and gales as yet another Low pressure area moves across the UK later in the week with Wednesday looking the only likely window of drier weather between weather systems but even then some showers are expected. the through next weekend at the time that follows further spells of rain and showers look likely but there may be a slow transgression towards less in the way of mobility to the atmosphere with the Jet Stream possibly buckling and breaking to allow pressure to build towards the SW or West which could eventually bring us more settled weather though the precursor to that could be a spell of cold North winds and wintry showers if ECM is to be believed. All in all though the pattern remains volatile and fast moving day to day changes in weather type will remain the focus for some considerable while yet before we might be looking at something at least a little less stormy and potentially disruptive with time. Any notable change towards cold and settled weather still looks a long way off though given the upper air pattern and Jet flow patterns predicted currently.      

Next Update Monday February 8th 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS snow row is 8 out of 23 for London on Tuesday the highest these go to is 23

gefsens850london0.png?cb=207

Same number for Cardiff

gefsens850cardiff0.png?cb=207

The chance of snow looks greatest for north eastEngland

Newcastle is on 18

gefsens850newcastle0.png?cb=207

For Scotland Inverness is the place to be 23/23 for Monday and quite high through-out

gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=207

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
52 minutes ago, Nick L said:

GFS -v- everyone else regarding that potential event on Tuesday. And even the GFS has it the most marginal of marginal of situations, snow accumulations would largely be limited to higher ground.

If gfs is right then hats off to it!!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looking at the end of the medium range - really need to see that 'pincer' of ridging between the Atlantic high anomaly and the NW Russia high anomaly to come off, as shown from the 00z EPS mean below day 9, to get the European trough to disrupt into a closed upper low. The ridging north on the Atlantic helped by the deep cold vortex dropping south over eastern N America to amplify the flow.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.1052fd

Even if  this does occur, whether we can get deep cold to shift south is another matter, certainly no deep cold to tap into from the east, so we are reliant on arctic rather than continental airmass for cold. More runs needed to see whether we follow this route of pressure rises to the N and the upper low closing off over Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the end of the medium range - really need to see that 'pincer' of ridging between the Atlantic high anomaly and the NW Russia high anomaly to come off, as shown from the 00z EPS mean below day 9, to get the European trough to disrupt into a closed upper low. The ridging north on the Atlantic helped by the deep cold vortex dropping south over eastern N America to amplify the flow.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.thumb.png.1052fd

Even if  this does occur, whether we can get deep cold to shift south is another matter, certainly no deep cold to tap into from the east, so we are reliant on arctic rather than continental airmass for cold. More runs needed to see whether we follow this route of pressure rises to the N and the upper low closing off over Europe.

I suppose there is an option for us to develop our own little cold pool with a cut off upper low Nick?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Extended ECM eps are far more retrogressive with a high anomoly in the Atlantic than they have been. retains the nw euro low anomoly out through to day 14.  If only we could find a way of getting some colder uppers into the trough, would be really interesting for coldies. As it is, could well become interesting from time to time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
On 01/02/2016 at 5:31 PM, gottolovethisweather said:

I'd put a brief watch on things around the 8th and 9th February as well

Having said this some six days ago and witnessing the daily changes to outputs ever since I had pretty much written this off. Okay, it might be said that the snow watch is more of a case of looking at the 9th into the 10th February but that'd be picking holes. My snow watch is and was supposed to be relevant to those of us positioned in lowland England and Wales, rather than in areas who have already received snow this Winter.

 

I went to say the following as well.

 

On 01/02/2016 at 5:31 PM, gottolovethisweather said:

Deep entrenched prolonged cold still not in sight but mid-February can and often does deliver even down south at times, despite these globally warmer times. I remain convinced that February will deliver what coldies want for more of the population than the rest of Winter has so far.

The next few weeks will be of interest for those of us who are snow-starved, although I have a feeling we might have to put up with periods of brief wintriness rather than anything prolonged and sustained. Nevertheless it will be a fascinating watch as the models toy around with the prospects of a wintry mix for some, plain ole rain for others, I wouldn't be surprised if blizzards and thundersnow weren't in the mix either. :friends:

 

Even before all of those wintry prospects, tomorrow looks a potentially nasty day for those of us in mainland and Southern England with winds and rain being the headline makers. Take care out there tomorrow guys n gals. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Whilst The GFS06z removes the snow risk for the South on Tuesday,i suspect it will be back

on the 12z to once again tease us,overall the 06z is a cooler run with overnight frosts increasing

as the week goes on,would not rule out snow falling almost any were  in the

next seven days(and not just the hills)

C.S 

Edited by cheshire snow
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