Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Lampostwatcher]

Very interesting 18z

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Well what do we have here? Snow events in the South? 

10cm of snow for West London, madness!!

[Ice Day]

7 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

well thats me watching "the day after tomorrow for the 100th time this winter.... now this is some model watching..... so far this winter ive been on the be patient side but the last 24hrs ive really begun to feel like thats it and we are done until next winter.... model watching has been the hardest thing ever this season and i just cant think that we will see anything to get real cold and ice days for us now..... sorry winter 2015/16 you have given nothing other than rain warmth and wind for many.... ive had 2 snow falls and thats less than what i saw in 13/14 so just goes to show how bad this winter has really been... i will keep an eye on this thread over the next few weeks and months but then i will go seek out my wife and kids for a few months before coming back here in September to see how the build up to next winter is looking...

I think your frustrations are felt by many on here, but looking at the runs today (and indeed the currently running 6z) you 'may' have bailed out a bit early!

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More changes from the GFS. The detail for later next week is difficult to pin down because of the changing view of shortwaves running into the UK.

Something might pop up in terms of snow but as to where difficult to say. That area south of Greenland seems to be an area the models continue to struggle with.

The GFS has been changeable now and then but then, overall,  been pretty accurate unfortunately. Certainly it's ultimately proved a lot more accurate as a means to gauge what the future holds rather than relying on long posts full of questionable theory that always produces the sames "it's going to get cold!" conclusion

[wishingforsnow]

10 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Very interesting 18z

I don't know whether this is a stretch or gun jumping from me but the trends over the past few days to me have hinted developments in favour of cold may be tentatively unfolding for the UK. For the sanity of coldies and those of us who want a break from storms I hope this is what's happening & that things don't go wrong and mess up any further chances of cold weather yet again.

Edited February 6, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[wishingforsnow]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

10cm of snow for West London, madness!!

Would definitely be something after the 'winter' so far

[nick sussex]

Just now, Timmytour said:

The GFS has been changeable now and then but then, overall,  been pretty accurate unfortunately. Certainly it's ultimately proved a lot more accurate as a means to gauge what the future holds rather than relying on long posts full of questionable theory that always produces the sames "it's going to get cold!" conclusion

I wasn't talking about longer range outputs, all the models are having a problem with what these shortwaves will do within T144hrs. The issue at the moment is that shortwave south of Greenland and how deep it might be and how it phases with low heights thrown off the upstream troughing.

The GFS 18hrs makes less of this in terms of depth. I would urge people though to not get too excited with GFS snow predictions.

Because of the marginality it could go either way, we don't have a big depth of cold. And any shortwaves in terms of track might change.

[snowray]

Now its the North's turn for some fun, everything further South on this run, would be nice to see some greens or yellows just North of Scotland.

Edited February 6, 2016 by snowray

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I don't know whether this is a stretch or gun jumping from me but the trends over the past few days to me have hinted developments in favour of cold may be tentatively unfolding for the UK. 

That's how it feels, momentum building for something far more interesting.  However, this winter has steadfastly refused to give us anything remotely memorable.  Perhaps this time we are finally onto something!?

[Nick F]

Looking like a forecasters' nightmare during the coming week, several lows moving across the UK with cold air wrapping into them plus low geopotential heights/thicknesses -particularly later the week, bringing the risk of  short notice snow in places away from the usual suspects of Scotland and the hills of N England and Wales.

Storm Imogen kick starts the new week with gales or severe gales for the south, indicative of the jet shifting south for the week ahead, no shortage of drama for the coming week!

[Abyss]

32 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Are you perhaps thinking of storm Frank rather than hurricane Alex. The warm moist air from Alex was mixed in a low pressure exiting Canada and gave a temporary bit of oomph to the flow. Storm Frank's warm air advection went right up to the pole, bringing record high temps in that region and giving birth to the persistent Kara sea positive heights.

Frank on Hogmanay 2015. 

Oh yes my mistake

[Ali1977]

Where's this run come from, NH looking much better.

[Polar Maritime]

The cool/cold wintry theme continues from the GFS.

Edited February 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[snowray]

Yes this is turning into a stonker of a run, lots of snow events out to T240.

[Ali1977]

It'll be nice if the METOs long range changed tonight, this run looks like it's showing effects of this weeks SSW

[Nouska]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Where's this run come from, NH looking much better.

The smart money should never have been on throwing the towel in!

Irrespective of whether the stratospheric warming is not technically a SSW or is currently in an unfavourable position, that amount of heat into the regions of the cold winter vortex is bound to have some ramifications. The GFS did smell the coffee as far as MJO movement - may have overdosed on the caffeine and is too enthusiastic in its current modelling - time will tell but there will be a shake up of some sort. I'm sure.

[blizzard81]

Various outputs over the last couple of days lead me to believe that next weekend could bring some nice snow surprises. Maybe a day earlier than my original valentine's snow storm expectation 

[Ice Day]

The 18z is a really good run with cold uppers over us for almost the whole 384 hours!  The models are still showing a lot of inconsistency, but the GFS particularly is showing a host of cold options.  The ensembles will be interesting tonight!

[snowangel32]

Gfs 18z has definitely been on the town tonight, snow chances a plenty for all of the UK, if London gets 10cm as shown on the 18z I will run through the streets naked. But in all honesty we all know come tomorrow morning the Gfs will be completely different the models are so volatile at present . Looks a tough job forecasting next week I don't envy the MET. 

Edited February 6, 2016 by snowangel32

[wishingforsnow]

Hmmm Storm Imogen has got me thinking, as it seems to be a named storm with some serious magnitude, the other coming close being Frank in late December/early January. Remembering how Frank was so powerful and its effects aided the January cold spell (I think),  I'm now starting to think what if Imogen will have some sort of impact at aiding cold weather to arrive in the UK again as it looks to be dragging down some cold air as it hits the UK.

The models have been changing so much but the trend of a southerly tracking jet, colder air and possible widespread UK snow has turned up on more than a few runs over the past few days.

Edited February 6, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[snowray]

Not an outlier as such, support from the control.

 

Also notice the 70% chance of snow there for London on the 9th. The control run even has a Scandi high taking shape out at the end of the run. I would bank this.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I wasn't talking about longer range outputs, all the models are having a problem with what these shortwaves will do within T144hrs. The issue at the moment is that shortwave south of Greenland and how deep it might be and how it phases with low heights thrown off the upstream troughing.

The GFS 18hrs makes less of this in terms of depth. I would urge people though to not get too excited with GFS snow predictions.

Because of the marginality it could go either way, we don't have a big depth of cold. And any shortwaves in terms of track might change.

Nick...there is absolutely no way my post was aimed at you....you've always been a beacon of hope clarified with reality presented in easily understandable and educational  concise posts. I could not value or appreciate your input more than I do. Instead I was more referring to the long tecnically sounding posts which always promise jam tomorrow but deliver no more, and in fact a lot less insight,  than taking an average view of the GFS runs from over 300 hours out

Edited February 6, 2016 by Timmytour

[Polar Maritime]

Lets just move away from discussing members posting styles please, Thanks.

[Peter H]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Yep, latest runs look very interesting, especially later this week and after next weekend. The 18z is a really good run with cold uppers over us for almost the whole 384 hours!  The models are still showing a lot of inconsistency, but the GFS particularly is showing a host of cold options.  The ensembles will be interesting tonight!

Yep, latest runs look very interesting indeed, especially later this week and after next weekend.

Some cracking synoptic charts on there, but they did that the week before last and it never really translated into anything in the week gone by.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Peter H

[nick sussex]

36 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Nick...there is absolutely no way my post was aimed at you....you've always been a beacon of hope clarified with reality presented in easily understandable and educational  concise posts. I could not value or appreciate your input more than I do. Instead I was more referring to the long tecnically sounding posts which always promise jam tomorrow but deliver no more, and in fact a lot less insight,  than taking an average view of the GFS runs from over 300 hours out

Don't worry I didn't take it that way. Thanks for the nice words. I do my best although can be prone to a bit of melodrama at times! Lol Lets hope for a few snow surprises this week. Hopefully the MJO can spark some life into the outputs for the last third of February.