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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

When I viewed the ecm tonight, I immediately thought about the brilliant posts by Singularity over the last few days. He has been at pains to stress that the synoptics shown by ecm tonight could well become a reality during the first week of Feb - even though the output has been showing the exact opposite over the last week or so. A big thumbs up to him if this comes off.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the upstream patterns the ECM and UKMO are close over the USA at T144hrs.

They both also have that nuisance shortwave and this at present could be a spoiler even to get to the ECM output. The UKMO has a stronger feature.

I think we need to see what they do with that before having a good idea of the detail for the UK.

The GFS is flatter over the central USA, it seems as if the ECM and UKMO have picked up on some renewed amplification, and the question tonight is whether this is a one hit wonder or whether they might amplify the pattern further over the next day.

We need to hope its the latter because if the PV splits it does give an opportunity for a decent northerly.

 

Agreed Nick. As a winter chart, the ECM around D6 is 'meh' at best!! But in relative terms it holds more interest, certainly when weighed up against the woefully flat GFS.

Then... there is viewing the chart with the optimistic viewpoint that, with a few Minor adjustments upstream, it could upgrade quite nicely to allow a decent Mid Atlantic ridge to form and to usher in a period of cooler PM air. I'm not overly convinced that the background signals are particularly in our favour for this outcome at that juncture (a bit too soon IMO) but it remains a viable outcome still. So, it will be one to watch this week to see if it gathers any decent support.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

When I viewed the ecm tonight, I immediately thought about the brilliant posts by Singularity over the last few days. He has been at pains to stress that the synoptics shown by ecm tonight could well become a reality during the first week of Feb - even though the output has been showing the exact opposite over the last week or so. A big thumbs up to him if this comes off.

Also 'Stormchaser' over on TWO although I wonder if they are the same person :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

come on frosty let it snow for all us coldies 

This is my dream...I will keep searching mate and the Ecm 12z is heading in the right direction.:cold-emoji::)

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is my dream...I will keep searching mate and the Ecm 12z is heading in the right direction.:cold-emoji::)

It was a surprising one. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Agreed Nick. As a winter chart, the ECM around D6 is 'meh' at best!! But in relative terms it holds more interest, certainly when weighed up against the woefully flat GFS.

Then... there is viewing the chart with the optimistic viewpoint that, with a few Minor adjustments upstream, it could upgrade quite nicely to allow a decent Mid Atlantic ridge to form and to usher in a period of cooler PM air. I'm not overly convinced that the background signals are particularly in our favour for this outcome at that juncture (a bit too soon IMO) but it remains a viable outcome still. So, it will be one to watch this week to see if it gathers any decent support.

Yes I think its a case of trying to squeeze out some interest as the main PV relocates to Scandi. At this point the ECM could improve further but also the handling of that shortwave may well see it backtrack so I think expectations need to remain tempered until that's resolved.

If you look at NCEP comments what the ECM/UKMO do over the central USA is likely, in terms of amplifying the pattern in the central USA.

If the PV splits and with that amplified set up minus any miserable shortwave trying to derail things then a northerly would have a good chance of verifying. At this point theres no chance of any blocking over Greenland as the next wave of strat warming is likely to send the PV back west again so any ridging is likely to be temporary.

The effects of that second warming are still a bit up in the air but at this point I'd just like to see things fall favourably for that possible northerly and worry about that later.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I'm not sure about the ECM.   Not that I don't see any potential from it, just that I'm getting a bit weary of constantly raising my hopes upon the signs of such potential and eagerly waiting for it to develop in further runs.

And these are only scraps of potential we are talking about....its was so much easier to attend for duty on each and every run when we were getting the eye-candy being delivered by the models from 4th Jan onwards :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Nice to see -10*C isotherm touching the far far north on the last frame.

Based on this run, the cold would not last that long before being bowled out....the messy stuff to SW (corrected) of Greenland hampering WAA getting toward Greenland thus ridge topples over, potential for something more sustained going on from a northerly quadrant quite a potent one as well, interest for coldies. :) 

image.thumb.png.e72dab171af5a0e5ea4c6276image.thumb.png.00343da5bed5be71a71ba76c

Baby steps :diablo:

image.thumb.png.c5aa43ae74ce9280c3ac78b3

 

 

 

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes I think its a case of trying to squeeze out some interest as the main PV relocates to Scandi. At this point the ECM could improve further but also the handling of that shortwave may well see it backtrack so I think expectations need to remain tempered until that's resolved.

If you look at NCEP comments what the ECM/UKMO do over the central USA is likely, in terms of amplifying the pattern in the central USA.

If the PV splits and with that amplified set up minus any miserable shortwave trying to derail things then a northerly would have a good chance of verifying. At this point theres no chance of any blocking over Greenland as the next wave of strat warming is likely to send the PV back west again so any ridging is likely to be temporary.

The effects of that second warming are still a bit up in the air but at this point I'd just like to see things fall favourably for that possible northerly and worry about that later.

 

The second warming is so far away, I don't think it merits worrying about where the pv is likely to set up shop thereafter. So much can change between now and then and as you know, there are many variables at play. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Even the ECM is limited in what's achievable though as we still have heights over Iberia at 240. Whilst that remains the best that can be achieved is really just a short glancing blow from PM air. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Dreams do come true and mid Feb will deliver all coldies our dreams soon charts will be showing snow showers and cold winds 

Fingers crossed we get that meridional pattern with strong mid Atlantic ridging from the middle of February onwards or a tad before, snow starved coldies deserve to see a sting in the tail of this generally awful winter so far!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, Jason M said:

Even the ECM is limited in what's achievable though as we still have heights over Iberia at 240. Whilst that remains the best that can be achieved is really just a short glancing blow from PM air. 

On the other hand, things may upgrade over the next couple of days. A good sign of a decent cold spell is if the models upgrade the cold synoptics from 7 days out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Low pressure into Europe..... weak ridge building. Overall some hints at something more interesting.

 

ECM1-216.GIF?25-0

 

And with regard to the Strat, remember the near cold shot and the one that actually delivered (relativity speaking) earlier this month both happened without much Strat action! So if we can get some movement linked to the Strat then who knows how the Trop will respond in the longer term.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

So ECM has a go at something good, and gets there for Scotland for a few days, I'd expect to see more of this. GFS FI now pushing g towards mid Feb so if the NETOs thoughts come to fruition aid expect to see signs of that over the next day or so....

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl

Evening all.

My slight optimism last night of a stronger mid atlantic ridge forming late january doesnt look as promising now.

We have several hurdles to overcome, generally linked

NAO is persistent positive resulting in Azores high strong and occasionally pushing in to Europe.

AO is generally positive, some models trending towards  negativity in 7 days or so, that could be a help.

Polar Jet Stream extremely strong this winter but at least the flow is now meridional and some parts of the North should have some wintriness

No real positive indication of a SSW but that can happen very quickly , polar vortex obviously very strong and keeps wanting to return to its default position around Greenland this year.

Siberian High virtually out of the equation because of the strong jet stream not allowing one to push west.

On the face of all that, the chances of sustained cold is looking very poor. We are however only at January 25th and we can have severe winter weather during the next  7 weeks, and on the basis of that, we are only half way through the worst of winter. In 2 or 3 weeks if we get the luck the UK could be in the freezer.

Looking forward to the run this evening. Synoptics are interesting, developments can take place any time. Personally i would rather have the atlantic like this than a whopping great high over the UK for weeks on end just meandering around and eating up the rest of Winter.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

To me, I don't think a mid Atlantic ridge will form until we're into February but its good to see some potentially promising stuff in the models again :cold: and a bit of optimism returning into this thread after the doom and gloom and underwhelming outputs of last week. Hopefully the start of a new trend rather than a backtrack the following day.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

We still have the extended eps with a fairly marked nw euro trough, especially over the UK. Difference now is that this is getting more to our East. Whilst it also stretches to our west, it gives a zonal look to the mean chart. However, one has to question how big a trough can be on a lateral level.  So will the trough be further east or further west?  Or even just over us?  Note that many gfs ops currently have a ridge at this timescale! 

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

ECM monthly MJO forecast heading into phase 7 in the last third of February.

 

EMON_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.ded7d3a3fphase 7 composite..FebENMJOphase7gt1500mb.thumb.gif.b3f227e

 

Be nice if it just fast-forwarded to phase 8,otherwise known as the promised land.:D

 

phase 8..FebENMJOphase8gt1500mb.thumb.gif.d337065

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

My optimism has remained but I've been low key as not to sound like a stuck record.  ECM looking more like it and cold to strike from NNW/N by turn of month not mid Feb onwards, by then I think we will have seen some wintry extremes.  In fact looking at the 12z ECM run, that is generally very much what I envisage, but at t240 the northerly flow to be held in more secure way to allow a more prolonged stronger feed.  Tonight ECM gets my vote.....edit, lets see it get colder by day ten

 

BFTP

 

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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