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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, hooch5 said:

Well done Frosty, defo keeping the spirits up on this forum

Cheers, I will certainly try:)

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

I think what we have to look for is if and when the heights over Europe will be lowered again coupled with what is going on with the tropical forcing. If the heights continue to stay strong over Europe well into February then the best we can hope for is cold incursions as opposed to a proper period of colder weather but  if the tropical forcing progresses in our favour then we could get another cold spell. To be fair at the moment the 'experts' only have a vague idea of what may or may not happen regarding next month. With luck things will work in our favour and we can get another period of colder weather from the middle of next month as opposed to this notion losing support over time and eventually dropped as the output gets worse. Hopefully not, as at the moment this is the only notion keeping some coldies from writing off the winter altogether and it would be nice to get another possibly longer period of seasonal weather at the end of Winter to make up for all the zonality.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
31 minutes ago, Peter H said:

Simon Keeling doesn't appear as optimistic as he was a couple of days ago. Going for a few days of colder weather mid February (possible easterly ?) and then it breaks down again in the latter stages of the month:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

He changes his mind so much , don't take that much notice

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No he wasn't - he was merely suggested it was an option...albeit an unlikely one.:)

True and I think he likes the cold weather . Ever since the infamous BBC Weather moment when he forgot the camera was running I've been one of his biggest fans! lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

model discussion please.................can't understand the reason for members to go off topic when the the reminder 'model discussion please' has been posted lord knows how many times over the years........

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

 

 Some interesting thoughts from Anthony in regard to early February in these chain of tweets.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
15 minutes ago, Banbury said:

He changes his mind so much , don't take that much notice

What like the weather? :acute: :D As for forecasts at t+42,000 minutes from now, that pig flying past my window might just be right, yes the winds are bitter out East but are they heading our way.................................... To be continued.

 

ECM is rolling, will it bring us some good news, some signs of cold and dry weather would be more than welcome for now if you ask me given this week's dreary and damp outlook. :hi:

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
8 minutes ago, Snipper said:

If this is the models thread why do so many ignor anything other than cold weather? Interested. 

90-95% of folk in here would no doubt prefer seasonal weather and to my mind, that is where most forum user's interests lie. There is no secret agenda and those well established forum posters will post outlooks simply how they see them and quite rightly so. Currently, its ultimately widespread wet, mild and windy for all in the reliable. Back to more on-topic posts we go please............

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM T168hrs finally raises some interest. The ridge in the Atlantic could slow down the next low, we could without that shortwave which stops more ridging nw.

The shortwave is that small feature you can see right at the west side of the pic that Bomber has just put up.

Good grief I might need to lie down something of interest for us coldies, at last! Still without that nuisance shortwave the flow into the UK would be colder at T192hrs.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Not bad from the ECM but you'll see that shortwave starts out at T144hrs and is still doing my head in at T216hrs!

This effectively stops the ridge from getting further north, if this shortwave becomes less of an issue then the more amplified set up over the central USA is likely to deliver a colder northerly flow into the UK.

The ECM also splits the PV which is good to see. If you're a coldie this evening start praying for the demise of that shortwave!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
42 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

 

 Some interesting thoughts from Anthony in regard to early February in these chain of tweets.

Infact he suggest vortex across the North Atlantic which is not ideal place but would bring more polar air into the mix but not ideal for country wide events

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

The 12z GEFS ensembles appears to have more colder solutions in the mid-term with the op tending to be more on the mild side than cold. The mean steadies out close to 0C but a few more members are dipping close to -10. :)

 

 

12z_ensembles_gfs_250116.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Looking at the upstream patterns the ECM and UKMO are close over the USA at T144hrs.

They both also have that nuisance shortwave and this at present could be a spoiler even to get to the ECM output. The UKMO has a stronger feature.

I think we need to see what they do with that before having a good idea of the detail for the UK.

The GFS is flatter over the central USA, it seems as if the ECM and UKMO have picked up on some renewed amplification, and the question tonight is whether this is a one hit wonder or whether they might amplify the pattern further over the next day.

We need to hope its the latter because if the PV splits it does give an opportunity for a decent northerly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

he didnt say there would be an easterly. this was explained (i thought) quite clearly at the time. he was explaining that the cold pattern at the time may hold on and possibly move back west (hence the arrows on his graphic pointing from the east) 

the problem is not with the BBC forecast but with people hearing the word "cold", seeing some arrows on a TV picture, not listening properly and making the wrong assumption

I knew that would raise a few in here of course i understood what he was saying i was merely just pointing out that every-time they mention the cold ward in advance on tv it goes pear shape.:D

But hey the ECM is looking better hope this trend continues towards:cold::cold: for us all.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

No he wasn't - he was merely suggested it was an option...albeit an unlikely one.:)

I was pulling chains.

I knew that would raise a few in here of course i understood what he was saying i was merely just pointing out that every-time they mention the cold ward in advance on tv it goes pear shape.

But hey the ECM is looking better hope this trend continues towards:cold::cold: for us all.

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