C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[reef]

After January came in at 5.4C, February now only needs to be 5.1C for this winter to be the warmest in the CET series. That's only 0.7C above the 1981-2010 average.

[Roger J Smith]

CET extremes for February and 1981-2010 means

____________________________________________

DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cumulative to date

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... (1895 was -7.4)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3

21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4
29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4

___________________________________________________________

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 1st

4.9c above the 61 to 90 average

4.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Backtrack]

Oops! Late

7.0C for me please. 

[Stargazer]

Oops, a bit late   My miserable excuse is that this thread's been moved so I didn't notice it!  Anyway, I'll have a punt at 5.0.

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 2nd

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 3rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Sorry for a late guess!  6.3C, please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.0C, while the maxima were in the high 11s, so remaining close to 7.4 on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

7.7C to the 5th (8.9: +3.6)
7.6C to the 6th (7.2: +1.8]
7.4C to the 7th (6.4: +1.7)
7.4C to the 8th (6.8: +2.4)
7.3C to the 9th (6.6: +2.6)
7.2C to the 10th (6.8: +2.7)
7.2C to the 11th (7.2: +2.9)
7.3C to the 12th (8.6: +3.9)
7.4C to the 13th (8.6: +4.6)

So, a pretty mild outlook, but not threatening any records yet. 7.2C to the 10th would be the 17th mildest first 10 days of Feb, while 7.4C to the 13th would be the 12th mildest.
 

[Man With Beard]

10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The minimum today is 3.0C, while the maxima were in the high 11s, so remaining close to 7.4 on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

7.7C to the 5th (8.9: +3.6)
7.6C to the 6th (7.2: +1.8]
7.4C to the 7th (6.4: +1.7)
7.4C to the 8th (6.8: +2.4)
7.3C to the 9th (6.6: +2.6)
7.2C to the 10th (6.8: +2.7)
7.2C to the 11th (7.2: +2.9)
7.3C to the 12th (8.6: +3.9)
7.4C to the 13th (8.6: +4.6)

So, a pretty mild outlook, but not threatening any records yet. 7.2C to the 10th would be the 17th mildest first 10 days of Feb, while 7.4C to the 13th would be the 12th mildest.
 

But with 7.9C being the all time record ... by mid-feb this would still be on the horizon.

I'm now thinking a 7C plus month is extremely possible - this morning's charts only showing a restrengthening of a WSWly driven pattern - and I'm feeling more than a little sick about my 4.5C prediction already...

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 4th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

But with 7.9C being the all time record ... by mid-feb this would still be on the horizon.

I'm now thinking a 7C plus month is extremely possible - this morning's charts only showing a restrengthening of a WSWly driven pattern - and I'm feeling more than a little sick about my 4.5C prediction already...

A 7.0C February would put us in uncharted territory with the winter CET. The final winter average would be an astonishing 7.38C if that happened, which would make it 0.60C above the current mildest and milder than 70 springs in the CET series!

This winter has been so poor it might as well do it now. At least it would be something of interest which marks this season out as the abomination it has been.

[Gustywind]

I'd go as far to say a 7c+ month is >50% probability now. Think this month we will continue to see projected cold downgraded to 'average' and milder spells continuing to be very mild (12c+). Plenty of cloud, wind and rain so mild nights in the main.

So 2015-16 to be comfortably the mildest winter on record and on a par with 2013-14 for the worst in my lifetime (said as a coldie who at least is old enough to remember proper winters of the 80s).

[Jason M]

Yep, I'd agree with that. Think 7c is highly likely. I think an early spring is also on the cards because I cant see the pattern of high pressure to our south breaking any time soon. Albeit some might argue that Spring started on Dec 1st.

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 5th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 4.9C while maxima look like being around 10, so 7.7C or 7.8C are likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.6C to the 7th (6.9: +2.2)
7.5C to the 8th (6.3: +1.9)
7.2C to the 9th (4.9: +0.9)
6.9C to the 10th (4.8: +0.7)
6.8C to the 11th (5.6: +1.3)
6.4C to the 12th (1.6: -3.1)
6.0C to the 13th (1.0: -3.1)
5.8C to the 14th (4.0: +0.6)
5.6C to the 15th (2.9: -0.9)
 

A cooler outlook in the medium term, but still likely to be more than 1C above average by mid-month.

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 6th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 7th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 4.8C, while maxima look like reaching about 8C, so a drop to 7.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.0C to the 9th (3.9: -0.1)
6.8C to the 10th (4.5: +0.4)
6.5C to the 11th (3.4: -0.8]
6.0C to the 12th (1.0: -3.7)
5.6C to the 13th (0.5: -3.6)
5.1C to the 14th (-1.5: -4.9)
4.6C to the 15th (-1.5: -5.3)
4.5C to the 16th (1.8: -1.9)
4.3C to the 17th (2.0: -1.7)
 

Potential for some very cold weather later in the week and next weekend. However, the situation is quite marginal and the low minima dependent on snow cover, so a slight change could have the CET values looking very different to what's currently forecast.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 4.8C, while maxima look like reaching about 8C, so a drop to 7.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.0C to the 9th (3.9: -0.1)
6.8C to the 10th (4.5: +0.4)
6.5C to the 11th (3.4: -0.8]
6.0C to the 12th (1.0: -3.7)
5.6C to the 13th (0.5: -3.6)
5.1C to the 14th (-1.5: -4.9)
4.6C to the 15th (-1.5: -5.3)
4.5C to the 16th (1.8: -1.9)
4.3C to the 17th (2.0: -1.7)
 

Potential for some very cold weather later in the week and next weekend. However, the situation is quite marginal and the low minima dependent on snow cover, so a slight change could have the CET values looking very different to what's currently forecast.

Well this is a bit of a surprise - it must be said though that the GFS is the coldest model at the moment - if all models are factored in, I'd have thought the projection for 17th would be somewhere between 5C and 5.5C. I'm glad to be back in the game this month though, having gone for 4.5C!

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 8th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 9, 2016 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Sunny sheffield at 6.4C

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 9th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.1C while maxima look like reaching the low 7s, so a drop to 6.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.6C to the 11th (4.2: -0.1)
6.4C to the 12th (4.0: -0.7)
6.2C to the 13th (4.3: +0.3)
6.0C to the 14th (3.3: -0.1)
5.8C to the 15th (2.5: -1.3)
5.5C to the 16th (2.2: -1.5)
5.3C to the 17th (2.3: -1.4)
5.2C to the 18th (3.0: -0.8]
5.2C to the 19th (4.2: +0.2)

A spell of just slightly below average temps now predicted, with the CET forecast to be close to 1C above the 81-10 average by the end of the high res run.
 

[reef]

12 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 1.1C while maxima look like reaching the low 7s, so a drop to 6.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.6C to the 11th (4.2: -0.1)
6.4C to the 12th (4.0: -0.7)
6.2C to the 13th (4.3: +0.3)
6.0C to the 14th (3.3: -0.1)
5.8C to the 15th (2.5: -1.3)
5.5C to the 16th (2.2: -1.5)
5.3C to the 17th (2.3: -1.4)
5.2C to the 18th (3.0: -0.8]
5.2C to the 19th (4.2: +0.2)

A spell of just slightly below average temps now predicted, with the CET forecast to be close to 1C above the 81-10 average by the end of the high res run.
 

It seems to be the usual story this winter where any projected cold is downgraded and is heavily outweighed by mild previous or after.

I wouldn't be surprised if we lose the lower minima and end up mid-5s by the 20th.