Spring 2016

[iapennell]

For proper weather excitement to compensate for a mild winter a large blocking-high over Greenland with deep depressions pushed south and east into central Europe late March through April would bring an almost-continuous feed of air from the high Arctic across Britain.  This would bring very cold conditions across the country with almost continuous north or north-east winds;the depressions passing to the south and east would bring frequent snowstorms to the South (and blizzards, rain and gales to central Europe).  Snow showers would also be frequent in the North East and Scotland.  Hard frosts down to -10C would occur at night under clear skies over snow-cover across much of the country and days would struggle to get much above freezing over the snow-cover: The persistence of such a pattern throughout April could bring the CET down to freezing point (and even colder in Scotland and the North) because the high Arctic is still very cold in April and despite the strengthening spring sunshine persistent northerlies from near the North Pole are going to be cold enough to ensure snow can fall and persist; snow-cover reflects 70 to 80% of the Sun's heat which means the surface-atmospheric radiation balance would be strongly negative with clear skies at night encouraging strong long-wave radiation heat-loss; this would entrench severe night frosts occurring across the country (particularly inland).  The persistence of this sort of pattern throughout April (though unlikely) could bring the CET down to freezing point.

Such a weather-pattern setting in bringing a persistent Arctic airstream in April, if it followed mild weather in February lulling folk into a false sense of security would have dramatic repercussions.  Farmers worried about their lambs getting buried in the snow (what we used to get in April in the 1980s where I live in the North Pennines were northerly blizzards referred to as "lambing storms"), gardeners devastated at the frosty losses of young plantlets from pollytunnels, a White Easter with disruption on the roads for folk travelling over the Bank Holiday weekend:  People visiting the northern hills thinking "Its OK, its Spring" would be sharply inculcated with a respect for raw nature particularly if they went walking or camping!!

Likelihood of this actually happening: Not terribly high in these globally-warmed years with less sea-ice around Greenland and in the European Arctic:  However we do have this patch of cold water in the North Atlantic at present (significantly colder than normal for the season that is).  it is in April with the weakening of the upper Westerlies that this cold patch in the North Atlantic could well come into its own with high-pressure extending north over it and joining up with high-pressure over Greenland whilst the seasonal warming of continental Europe encourages depressions to move into that region:  Frigid Arctic winds could then occur between a Greenland/North Atlantic high and low-pressure over Europe (i.e. over Britain).  Much depends, alas, on the pattern of the upper Westerlies which, as they weaken and respond to changing temperature patterns over land and ocean could place an upper trough over western Europe.  That could then encourage Arctic winds in April.       

Edited January 24, 2016 by iapennell

[Weather-history]

22 hours ago, iapennell said:

For proper weather excitement to compensate for a mild winter a large blocking-high over Greenland with deep depressions pushed south and east into central Europe late March through April would bring an almost-continuous feed of air from the high Arctic across Britain.  This would bring very cold conditions across the country with almost continuous north or north-east winds;the depressions passing to the south and east would bring frequent snowstorms to the South (and blizzards, rain and gales to central Europe).  Snow showers would also be frequent in the North East and Scotland.  Hard frosts down to -10C would occur at night under clear skies over snow-cover across much of the country and days would struggle to get much above freezing over the snow-cover: The persistence of such a pattern throughout April could bring the CET down to freezing point (and even colder in Scotland and the North) because the high Arctic is still very cold in April and despite the strengthening spring sunshine persistent northerlies from near the North Pole are going to be cold enough to ensure snow can fall and persist; snow-cover reflects 70 to 80% of the Sun's heat which means the surface-atmospheric radiation balance would be strongly negative with clear skies at night encouraging strong long-wave radiation heat-loss; this would entrench severe night frosts occurring across the country (particularly inland).  The persistence of this sort of pattern throughout April (though unlikely) could bring the CET down to freezing point.

Such a weather-pattern setting in bringing a persistent Arctic airstream in April, if it followed mild weather in February lulling folk into a false sense of security would have dramatic repercussions.  Farmers worried about their lambs getting buried in the snow (what we used to get in April in the 1980s where I live in the North Pennines were northerly blizzards referred to as "lambing storms"), gardeners devastated at the frosty losses of young plantlets from pollytunnels, a White Easter with disruption on the roads for folk travelling over the Bank Holiday weekend:  People visiting the northern hills thinking "Its OK, its Spring" would be sharply inculcated with a respect for raw nature particularly if they went walking or camping!!

Likelihood of this actually happening: Not terribly high in these globally-warmed years with less sea-ice around Greenland and in the European Arctic:  However we do have this patch of cold water in the North Atlantic at present (significantly colder than normal for the season that is).  it is in April with the weakening of the upper Westerlies that this cold patch in the North Atlantic could well come into its own with high-pressure extending north over it and joining up with high-pressure over Greenland whilst the seasonal warming of continental Europe encourages depressions to move into that region:  Frigid Arctic winds could then occur between a Greenland/North Atlantic high and low-pressure over Europe (i.e. over Britain).  Much depends, alas, on the pattern of the upper Westerlies which, as they weaken and respond to changing temperature patterns over land and ocean could place an upper trough over western Europe.  That could then encourage Arctic winds in April.       

I have got bad vibes about this April, strong El Niños seem to be followed by chilly Aprils.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I have got bad vibes about this April, strong El Niños seem to be followed by chilly Aprils.

CFS is showing a rapid switch from the anomalous warmth as we hit spring and early summer. Did the same last year and the cool spring followed.

Is that because of the cold sea temperatures?

[reef]

15 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

CFS is showing a rapid switch from the anomalous warmth as we hit spring and early summer. Did the same last year and the cool spring followed.

Is that because of the cold sea temperatures?

SSTs around the UK are above average at the moment so it wouldn't be that.

I would not be surprised if we get a cool spring and poor summer after this though. A cold April looks very likely going on previous years with waning strong ninos. Summer is a little more inconclusive, with a hot one in 1983 and then ones like 1958, 1966 and 1998 which were poor. However it does appear a waning nino still weakly positive by June/July does indicate a better summer. If we're already in a weak La nina / mild negative by then a good summer looks less likely.

If I was to make a guess (probably completely wrong), I'd go for a warm March, cold April and average/mild May.

[Summer Sun]

WSI's latest outlook now covers the first 2 months of spring

Quote

 

A More December-Like Pattern Likely

January 25, 2016

Andover, MA

Andover, MA, 25 January 2016 — Between February and April 2016, WSI (Weather Services International) is forecasting widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe, with near or slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of the UK and Scandinavia (especially in March). Wet and windy weather is expected to re-establish, especially from the western mainland northeastward, while drier and less windy conditions will occur across SE Europe.

“The sudden and drastic January pattern change towards colder weather will likely be short-lived as the primary pattern drivers will evolve back towards a weather configuration similar to December. The timing of the pattern’s return towards a milder pattern will coincide with the transition from January to February, so our February forecast map is characterized by widespread above-normal temperatures,” according to WSI’s Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “However, there will be emerging colder risks by late February into early March, driven by the sub-seasonal oscillation (MJO) as well as a potential disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex.”

For the February to April 2016 time period, WSI is forecasting the following conditions:

February

Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal

UK* - Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal

March:

Nordic Region - Colder than normal

UK - Near-normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

April:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal

UK - Near normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-colder-pattern-in-january-to-be-temporary-as-warm-westerly-pattern-returns-for-february

Edited January 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Guest]

The plants must be contemplating when it's Winter or Spring! 

[Milhouse]

The daffs are out here and some roadside hedgerows are already developing a green tint of unfurling leaves. And its only January!!

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly we here in West Yorkshire are into our 5th straight afternoon of sunshine (the first such streak in a good while). Feels quite springlike. 

[Mokidugway]

It's like the last three months where a bad dream,  been stunning for the last few days

 

[Milhouse]

Much noticeable improvement in light levels compared to mid Winter. But these are the days that can be deceptively cold with bright sunshine but cold winds. April 2013 springs to mind with sparking strong sunshine contrasting with the raw easterly winds of the first 10 days.

[Summer Sun]

TWO's early look at spring is now online

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3077&title=Spring+2016+news

Edited February 15, 2016 by Summer Sun

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like being a rubbish spring, i.e. wet and unsettled.

[March]

That seasonal outlook is really not useful. Summary: Early spring can have cold spells and spring gets warmer as it goes on. 

[Bristawl Si]

Talk about hedging their bets on what Spring *may* bring! Lol!

[Summer Sun]

No surprise really

 

 

[Summer Sun]

As we leave winter and move into Spring we'll see winds coming in from the north west

Week ahead forecast

Different feel
Winds from the north west
Wettest in the north
Average temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35656389

[Milhouse]

It looks like temperatures will recover a tad going into the next week but it looks like we will be always prone to northerly outbreaks through into early March. Id much prefer above average temperatures in late April and May anyway. It seems ages since we had anything decent and long lasting in May so I'm hoping this is the year.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

9 hours ago, Milhouse said:

It looks like temperatures will recover a tad going into the next week but it looks like we will be always prone to northerly outbreaks through into early March. Id much prefer above average temperatures in late April and May anyway. It seems ages since we had anything decent and long lasting in May so I'm hoping this is the year.

I read somewhere that as el nino slows down It "might" bring something warm or hot . Im just hoping this switch to the cold side doesn't last for the next 5 months

[Azazel]

*sigh* too late in the day now for me to care about deep cold and snow. It's March on Tuesday and my attention turns to Spring warmth, but alas..we all know the winter will make an unwelcome return and provide nuisance cold (not quite cold enough for snow) right through until May now.

[Summer Sun]

Spring forecast from the weather outlook

Spring: Cold to warm

Overview

During the first half of the meteorological spring there is considered to be an increased chance of below average temperatures and above average precipitation. During the second half of the season the chances of drier and warmer than average weather are increased.

Temperature

Close to or slightly above average.

Precipitation

Close to average.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

[Azazel]

Its Springgggggggggggggggggggggg

 

 

....cue the return of Winter

[Summer Sun]

Welcome to spring...

...for a few hours anyway...

[Milhouse]

Finally its time for Spring!! The dark times are over for another year and its time for some warmth, sunshine and April showers.

[Summer Sun]

17 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

Finally its time for Spring!! The dark times are over for another year and its time for some warmth, sunshine and April showers.

 

And hopefully some milder nights especially come May too many frosts last May did my plants more harm than good

[Snowyowl9]

The cold is playing catchup.