North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

[Liam J]

Nice sunset earlier, turning chilly now down to 2.7c after a high of 6.8c this afternoon.

 

 

[Mokidugway]

Odd shower otherwise not to bad a day.

 

[chicken soup]

Its going to be hell for us i fear next wed /thurs...an atlantic front is moving in most likely of rain as it hits us and then turning to snow as it moves over the rest of england...leaving us to look helplessly on wringing are hands in despair ..as the rest of the nation enjoys a snowfest.

Edited February 11, 2016 by chicken soup

[iand61]

Two days without rain and frost this morning, that's more like winter should be.

It certainly feels better after weeks of constant rain and as far as I am concerned, long may it continue.

 

[Day 10]

From the met

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Cold, bright and breezy with scattered wintry showers on Saturday. Feeling much colder on Sunday and Monday, with brisk northerly winds and occasional snow showers.

Wahooooo get the christmas tree out!!  (or the brolly as it downgrades at the last minute lol)

[Miamay]

Just had a shower passing through. Any hope for snow next week our way?

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Miamay said:

Just had a shower passing through. Any hope for snow next week our way?

I think with your location being close to the coast it could still be very marginal but you never know. It looks promising next week for sure but I think the relative lack of comments in the model thread is because of the let downs this Winter. People are tired of chasing faux cold. Hopefully we can end this Winter on a very wintry note!

[damianslaw]

Possible snow event later Tuesday and Wednesday as we see the atlantic front engage the cold air, and disrupt with the mild uppers quickly being squeezed out. BBC forecast showing this scenario for here at least - its the kind of set up that often delivers the best snowfalls here, with cold air being pulled in from the SE ahead of the front - evaporative cooling takes hold as the warm air is forced over the fells as well, central lakes often gets hit very hard. We shall see.

Before then chance of a few rogue wintry flurries even a dusting of snow perhaps thanks to disturbances in the easterlyne flow. Pennine areas could get a good covering. Temperatures for the next 5 days at least below average, probably on a par with the mid Jan cold spell.

[Darren Bown]

It's interesting to see such an 'unusual' cold event possibly happening over the next week, though shouldn't be surprising, with how 'unusual' the whole Winter has been. Can't remember the last time a set up (currently) where a northerly/NE'rly is undercut by the Atlantic with lows running south happened?

[cheshire snow]

55 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

It's interesting to see such an 'unusual' cold event possibly happening over the next week, though shouldn't be surprising, with how 'unusual' the whole Winter has been. Can't remember the last time a set up (currently) where a northerly/NE'rly is undercut by the Atlantic with lows running south happened?

Indeed a very interesting set up deveoping mid week,however four

Days away,i am sure if something can go wrong for tihs region it

Will 

C.S

[dodge]

Yes makes a change from D+10 charts showing something that normally doesn't verify, this is now within a more reliable time frame and the BBC hinted at 'potential' yesterday for something snowy middle of next week.  Still not getting hopes up yet, there could always be the possibility of last minute spoilers; not enough precipitation, to far 'east', 'west' etc.. 

[WillinGlossop]

Back from drive around west and south yorkshire and peak district.... Very foggy and icy until half an hour ago.... Sun coming out now.... Some lovely locally farmed produce for the weekend.... Thanks to holmfirth fish have some lovely mussels and scallops for tea.... Fire on as its 2c and need to warm up the house....

[Liam J]

Another stunning winters day with plenty of sunshine, the ever strengthening February sun lifting temperatures up to 7.5c this afternoon after a low of 1.3c overnight. Colder air moving in over the weekend though so highs probably a few degrees lower with overnight frost. 

[chicken soup]

The inevitable downgrades have begun....big mild sector now on GFS ...rain instead of snow next week.

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by chicken soup

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

The inevitable downgrades have begun....big mild sector now on GFS ...rain instead of snow next week.

 

Yes I am in believe it when I see it mode now after this pathetic excuse of a winter. About 2 frosts and a bit of sleet so far, FANTASTIC!!

[Weather-history]

On 30 January 2016 at 7:56 PM, chicken soup said:

I think its time we faced up to the fact that global warming is genuinely happening and we are starting to see its results, three truly diabolical winters in a row...and now staring down the barrel of the mildest winter on record....soon be at the point were we may as well scrap winter and summer and have one long autumn a one long spring.

Last winter had a Manchester winter index in the 80s, much higher than many a winter in that 1988-2008 period. So not exactly a truely diabolical winter at least around here.

[pip22]

1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

The inevitable downgrades have begun....big mild sector now on GFS ...rain instead of snow next week.

 

I have a feeling the latest GFS run is wrong.  Next run or ECM run will be better I think.  Just had a gut feeling.  Come on models bring me snow!!!

Edited February 12, 2016 by pip22

[itsnowjoke]

I've got my shorts on waiting for the inevitable 

[iand61]

1 hour ago, pip22 said:

I have a feeling the latest GFS run is wrong.  Next run or ECM run will be better I think.  Just had a gut feeling.  Come on models bring me snow!!!

I admire your optimism but unfortunately I don't share it.

After the potential of the last couple of days there was only one way that this was going and that was to downgrade.

 

 

[itsnowjoke]

Well it's certainly efinge cold out 

[itsnowjoke]

And cold inside too 

[Mokidugway]

Warm in sunshine today

 

[iand61]

After two dry days the great 2016 drought was finally broken by a shower this afternoon.

don't get to excited though, it was only rain.

[Liam J]

Got up to 7.6c this afternoon and it felt pleasant in the sun sheltered from the breeze, pretty much static temp under the cloud this evening! 4.0c give or take since sunset. Hope to get a few frosts over the weekend... 

[damianslaw]

BBC forecast suggesting snow on front and back edge of front progged to move through on Wednesday, places with height should do well, lower ground I'm not too sure, not a fan of snow to rain events, but would be interesting to see a snow to rain back to snow event from the same front, when did that last happen???

Before then, lots of convective action set to enhance snow shower activity to our NE, central and eastern parts of Cumbria could have a few snowy surprises on Sunday.. NE blasts can deliver the goods here and in Pennine Lancashire/Peak District. As the crow flies, under a pure north easterly - a line from Newcastle we aren't that far away from the N Sea influence despite the Pennines in the way - there is never any moderation indeed the opposite often happens and we develop low dewpoints. Eastern fells should see some good snowfall over next 48 hours.

Edited February 12, 2016 by damianslaw