Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Jason M]

Will be interesting to see what support that run has. It looks a bit ott to me but I think the underlying message of heights to our south remains strong and whilst that background signal remains anything notably cold remains firmly off the table.

more runs needed 

[blizzard81]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Mad as it seems to say...

I think vast amount of operationals' gfs; ecm; gem ukmo...are going into hyper overdrive here!!!! (Mobility madness)!!!

Perhaps I've just gone mad in saying so...but I can certainly mind things may not look so dire within 48hrs!!! 

 

I do hope you are correct. However, and no matter how unpallatable it may seem, the outputs could not be any worse for cold lovers at the moment. You could argue the only way is up so you are probably correct but everything is relative lol.

[snowray]

The thing I fear the most is a cold and wet Spring, even it it does snow I really do prefer warmer weather by then. Unfortunately I am starting to think that our favourable Winter blocks will turn up in March/April/May, and probably in Summer too like last year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The best thing about this GFS 18hrs run is that thankfully it will be over soon! lol

A horrid set of charts with the PV going into overdrive.

I duno, we still end up with a split vortex...it's just with the main vortex lobe still going strong over Greenland the Euro heights have nowhere to go really. This can, however, change in subsequent runs.

[ALL ABOARD]

At T138 12 ensemble memebers have better links than the op.. small glimmer of hope. As far as the 18z op goes, DREADFUL! Even the warming isnt as prononuced. 

[Derbyshire Snow]

quick look at this run... No height rises over Greenland at any stage.... jet stream pouring energy out of US....no real chance of any Scandinavian high or Siberian High pushing towards us- too much energy pushing our from Atlantic... high pressure generally over Azores, Southern Europe. If this run verifies only 70% its bad news until mid February i expect.

One week is however a long time to obtain accurate forecasts in our part of the world...  but to be honest I cannot see where any cold will appear from for the forseeable future. It is however only one model run but its looking a bit like December all over again however the worst of precipitation seems to be generally for Northern Britain again

Edited January 19, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[snow mad]

34 minutes ago, snowray said:

1st February, not long to go now. Hope this don't verify.

I hope it does as we may as well have an early spring cos winter this year just isn't going to happen! People may say how can you say this with so much winter left? It's going to be at least 2 weeks before we get any sort of chance and for us down here Feb cold is extremely rare and March cold is a waste of time.

Edited January 19, 2016 by snow mad

[Timmytour]

23 minutes ago, snow mad said:

I hope it does as we may as well have an early spring cos winter this year just isn't going to happen! People may say how can you say this with so much winter left? It's going to be at least 2 weeks before we get any sort of chance and for us down here Feb cold is extremely rare and March cold is a waste of time.

For pretty much half of the winters this century February has been the coldest of the three months so it's not that rare...although I do appreciate that being the coldest winter month in this century does not necessarily constitute being cold in itself (the CET for Feb 2007 wasn't far off 6C !)

[Trom]

1 hour ago, snow mad said:

I hope it does as we may as well have an early spring cos winter this year just isn't going to happen! People may say how can you say this with so much winter left? It's going to be at least 2 weeks before we get any sort of chance and for us down here Feb cold is extremely rare and March cold is a waste of time.

Feb is rare?  So much to play for especially given the models inability to cope with the synoptics.

[wishingforsnow]

Hopefully today was just a day of 'bad luck' with model synoptics and despite being in the minority its good to see that as per Fergie saying, synoptics favouring cold do have some support at the moment. Also charts from today showing heavy rain and storms returning and still staying there with the Euroslug in place a week to 10 days out from now are not in the close enough timeframe to verify, what good is taking these horrible model runs today as 'gospel' when they easily flipped from the stellar runs from yesterday and will probably flip again. If some of the bad charts from last week actually verified upon which people also cried 'winter is over' we would have be seeing heavy rain and milder temperatures already since the weekend, when some saw snow. 

Also these wild swings in runs day by day, as outlined by Tamara, could be a response by the models of the impact of strat warming, once again, that cannot be ruled out when there is good support building for such an event to happen. What has perhaps been a bit overlooked is the possibility the models today overdid the signals arising as a result of the possible precursor to the displacement of the vortex (temporary strengthening = milder conditions returning) We may see in the coming days and weeks, this is all the result of the atmostphere battering the vortex into submission which should a SSW occur afterwards or even sufficient vortex displacemet, kill any re emerging Euroslugs and get us the cold we all crave. 

Uncertainty is the key word here and what we can continue to hope for is a switch to a better outlook again and that these runs are still too far out to be taken as a serious reflection of future weather conditions and that strat warming gains considerable ground as we move into February which looks more and more likely.

All hope is not lost 

Edited January 20, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Mildcarlisle]

On 14 January 2016 at 1:11 AM, Mildcarlisle said:

And having a look at the jet-stream modelling, Tuesday 19th Jan. seems to be pivotal with energy moving out of Eastern U.S.A. resulting in cyclogenesis which would appear to move things on,such that by Saturday 23rd, the 'layabout' synoptics we have just now will have changed likes.

And it seems the jet stream models were correct likes. 

[Mucka]

We certainly aren't seeing much encouragement in the operational output but I feel confident we will see positive changes soon.

I did say this was a slow burner and I still feel that way but I expect see positive changes in the day 9/10 region over the next day or two.

Remember this chart from this mornings GFS for Feb 2, it doesn't get much worse than this.

But I think the reality will be very different. A good while back I said that we would likely see an effort to build a Scandi high in the output but this would likely fail and attention would switch back to Atlantic sector. While I was happy to cheer an Easterly on I think this is going to prove correct except we are not really seeing the Atlantic ridge and height rises toward Greenland being modeled which I hoped would appear late Jan and now there are only 11 days left to end of month.

If it is going to happen anything like I thought then it needs to start showing in the next 2 days and I'm fairly confident the models will at least move away from the very dismal Southerly blocking from the Atlantic, through Europe and into Russia, yuk!

Crystal ball time;

I hope to see a deep trough modeled dropping into Europe and a strong Atlantic ridge behind around end of Jan. Seems to me models are over estimating the strength of high pressure to our South and how the PV in this region may split into two lobes and move SE and SW  out of their Greenland home. Well it works in my head anyway, the models just need to catch on.

ECM out to 168 as I post and looking a little better for lowering heights to the South perhaps though they the Euro slug is in full force here.

 

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Mucka

[snow mad]

6 hours ago, Timmytour said:

For pretty much half of the winters this century February has been the coldest of the three months so it's not that rare...although I do appreciate that being the coldest winter month in this century does not necessarily constitute being cold in itself (the CET for Feb 2007 wasn't far off 6C !)

I'm more thinking of snow rather than just cold as Down here we haven't had snow in February with the exception of 2012, as my name would suggest that is my main interest in winter. And after the 3 past winters being snowless in one and only two dusting that melted after an hour in the others I certainly don't see us getting any snow now unfortunately.

[snow mad]

6 hours ago, Trom said:

Feb is rare?  So much to play for especially given the models inability to cope with the synoptics.

It is down here! I think the euro heights has been the overwhelming trend on all models for at least a week now! And we all know how long that can hang around and could quite easily scupper the rest of winter. Would love to be totally wrong 

[Ali1977]

Can't see many positives this morning, I still think by the weekend the FI charts will be much better ( although still FI)

EC32 showing any changes??

[Tim Bland]

GEM gets very close to an easterly at day 9. It has the low over the med - Hope is not lost but remains the outsider

Edited January 20, 2016 by Tim Bland

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Can't see many positives this morning, I still think by the weekend the FI charts will be much better ( although still FI)

EC32 showing any changes??

One positive this morning is that there are more colder ensemble members on the gfs in the medium to long term. Lets see what the ecm ens look like.

[bluearmy]

Gfsp consistent 

ec32 was yesterday and wasn't interesting for coldies 

[Cloud 10]

A promising looking "going forward" day 10 ensemble mean from the 00z ECM,with a big split in the lower vortex and some higher temperature anomalies over the Arctic.

 

 

 

Any news on the extended EPS?     #fishing

[jvenge]

Quite a spread of options on the GFS perturbations just 7 days out. 

[Tim Bland]

As BA says the GFS (p) is sticking with the easterly thanks to a monster scandi high. Does anyone know how reliable this model is? How does it perform compared to the operational GFS? 

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

As BA says the GFS (p) is sticking with the easterly thanks to a monster scandi high. Does anyone know how reliable this model is? How does it perform compared to the operational GFS?

You can see the verification stats here, its the GFSX :

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Its performance is a bit up and down depending on timeframe. Its currently beating the ECM at day 8 but then falls behind at day 10.

At the moment the normal GFS is better than the ECM at both days 8 and 10.The ECM still leads at day 6 on the 00hrs outputs.

How long this lasts for hard to say but the ECM past day 6 seems to be having more problems than normal.

Edited January 20, 2016 by nick sussex

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JAN 20TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A ridge of High pressure lying across the UK today will move away SE tomorrow as freshening Southerly winds and troughs of Low pressure move into the SW of Britain tomorrow moving slowly NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from the far SW of England where the level is nearer 4000ft today rising to in excess of 5000ft here tomorrow. Snowfall is unlikely today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West. Mostly dry at times in the SE.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream currently weak across the Atlantic will ramp up somewhat and move East across the UK for a few days. Thereafter the prediction for it to locate well to the Northwest of the UK remains with High pressure close to the UK later keeping it well away from UK shores.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely focused on dry and fine conditions under High pressure to the East and SE through the run. There is a couple of milder and more unsettled periods shown within the first week of the run when some rain any affect all for a time particularly this Friday and maybe again towards the middle of next week. Other than that this run shows any rain more focused towards the NW with a lot of dry, bright and possibly rather cold conditions with frost at night the more likely weather for many through the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today also shows quite a lot of anticyclonic weather especially for England and Wales. A milder spell is likely following a spell of rain over the weekend and this run too shows the chance of another spell of rain towards the middle of next week which is followed by a rise of pressure across the South which then extends to Europe and sets up a trend towards rather cold weather with frost and fog returning by night and more unsettled conditions threatening the UK again at the end of the run as Low pressure moves into a cold block returned across much of Europe by that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 65% pack with High pressure either to the SW or over the British Isles itself offering fine weather with some overnight frosts and fog. The remaining 35% of members show milder West or SW winds and rain at times in association with Low pressure to the North of Britain. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an altogether milder period coming up as SW winds and occasional troughs of Low pressure move NE across the UK from Friday with rain at times for all with the heaviest and most persistent falls across the North and West but with brighter mild spells as well especially across the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today is quite representative of the raw data as the winds turn SW for all and after a series of frontal troughs bring milder air to all over the weekend. High pressure lies to the SE with a warm front moving back NE across the UK bringing further mild and cloudy weather with rain or drizzle at times especially across the North and West

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows milder air moving across the UK this Friday with some rain for all followed by several days of rather changeable weather with some rain in the North and West. With time though High pressure never far away to the SE realigns later as a cold puddle of air moves West over Europe and threatens the UK again with colder air later with some frost returning especially towards the South and East while the NW probably maintains the dampest and mildest weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today prefers to fly the mild flag today as once the rain bearing trough of Friday introduces less cold air the rest of the period is shown to maintain SW winds for all with further rain at times and strong winds too as we reach the middle of next week as a more vigorous Low pressure area is shown to move up from the SW towards the SW approaches.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown on Friday with a spell of rain for all ushering in milder Atlantic SW'lies. Thereafter pressure is shown to remain High to the SE and Low to the NW with the influence of Low pressure maintaining milder Atlantic winds with rain at times there while High pressure often very close to Southern Britain maintaining a lot of fine weather there with nearer to average temperatures at times and probably a return of some night frosts at times later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has good agreement that pressure is likely to be Low near Southern Greenland while High pressure lies across the Azores in 10 days. Pressure patterns over Europe though look very indeterminate with a variety of options shown within members which could have implications for less mild conditions across the far SE of the UK later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show a classic NW/SE split in trend this morning with varying degrees of bias towards a dominance of influence of High pressure over Europe again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS edging ahead of UKMO  at at 99.5 pts to UKMO's 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.7 pts over GFS's 65.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.3 pts to 47.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   With temperatures not far off -8C outside my window as I type it is hard to imagine that in a couple of days time temperatures will be some 15C warmer but such as Winter in the UK this is the most likely outcome shown within the models again today. The current cold High pressure across the UK will slide away East over the next 24 hours as troughs of Low pressure move up from the SW to reach the SW later tomorrow and all areas on Friday. All areas will see a spell of rain followed by much milder SW winds and some bright weather over the weekend. There will be some further rain especially across the West and North though with the main difficulty this morning in the detail surrounding this milder phase of weather. Some output notably those from this side of the Atlantic show quite unsettled conditions early next week and possibly longer with rain at times for all and temperatures responding to near or a little above average at times. However, this is not the blanket approach by all models. There remains a cold block across Europe which although recedes East over the coming three or four days will remain poised towards Russia and the American models do acknowledge this and coupled with High pressure which never lies far away to the SE and East could come back from the East later as High pressure rebuilds across a more Northerly latitude in the second week. It may be just natural variability between model runs and this theme may disappear in the next runs but my gut feeling is that the milder weather to come will not be like the spell in December with High pressure playing a much more dominant role aided by a weaker Jet Stream than back then and if it builds sufficiently North over Europe or even into Southern Britain it wouldn't take much to throw a totally different reflection on the weather at the surface than that currently indicated. I do believe that we are not moving into a spell of prolonged mildness but rather a period of changeable weather with a slow theme to drift back into dry and anticyclonic weather with frosts returning within a week or so. So having nailed my colours to the mast lets hope that I am right and that trends continue to develop towards a colder evolution in the rest of the runs today and tomorrow.  

Next Update Thursday January 21st 2016 from 09:00 

[Yarmy]

Running slightly ahead of the current GFS (as you'd hope) and the UKMO at 5 days. Still trailing the Euro. 

[nick sussex]

The ECM De Bilt ensembles are in a word blah!

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

Nothing exceptionally mild there but also very little cold apart from the cold outlier! I don't see a return to the December horror show but apart from that it just looks uninspiring.

Towards day ten theres a couple more colder solutions that break away from the blah cluster! Wind direction wise theres a few that go more nw and also some more in the east/ne.

I'm doing my best here to spin some interest!

Edited January 20, 2016 by nick sussex