Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Jason M]

Having viewed this evenings output and GEFS I was struggling to find the words to express how I felt. On reflection I think the below chart sums things up pretty well!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=1&mode=0&carte=1

Looking on the bright side at least it won't be as wet as before Christmas.

 

[Snowman.]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The displacement on the 12z is nowhere near as potent as on the 6z tbh, I'm wondering if similar downgrades have been happening on GLOSEA5 and that's perhaps the reason for the change in wording of MO 30 dayer, the warming is waning at 1mb now at the end of the run as well before doing enough damage.

I always think that as long as the warming continues to strengthen at the top of the strat or at least not wane, then it will only be a matter of time before it severely weakens the vortex lower down.

Both the 0z and 6z where outliers within the ensembles I found.

The 12z matches the ensembles a lot closer but a full SSW might not be needed anyway.

[Paul_1978]

41 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

despite the variation in the output, one thing has been modelled very consistent lately- the destruction of the strat vortex-

torpedo hit....

That's a T+384 chart though. Are these as pointless strat wise as the normal model outputs are at that range?

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Having viewed this evenings output and GEFS I was struggling to find the words to express how I felt. On reflection I think the below chart sums things up pretty well!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=1&mode=0&carte=1

Looking on the bright side at least it won't be as wet as before Christmas.

 

I think that would result in a new record high pressure for the UK.

Probably not out of the question considering what we've been through recently!!

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Having viewed this evenings output and GEFS I was struggling to find the words to express how I felt. On reflection I think the below chart sums things up pretty well!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=1&mode=0&carte=1

Looking on the bright side at least it won't be as wet as before Christmas.

 

It's 384 hours (16 days) away - it isn't going to happen!

[MR EXTREMES]

11 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

That's a T+384 chart though. Are these as pointless strat wise as the normal model outputs are at that range?

I must admit that really is a very long way out I'm sorry I thought we were expecting a strat warming event end of Jan ?

as for tonight most model have backed of from Atlantic domination as I'd expect with deep cold to the east and heights over us I do feel a continuation of more settled condition at least in the south.

pretty average nothing to extreme either way.

but also don't see return to colder weather either but tbh it's a stalemate 

[bobbydog]

18 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

That's a T+384 chart though. Are these as pointless strat wise as the normal model outputs are at that range?

no because the strat changes at a much slower pace than the trop and is less affected by minor changes on the ground

[Snowman.]

Looks like we could be heading into the most settled period of weather so far this winter. With the block to our south but much further north than that of December rain is likely to be kept north as fronts pass over.

Now for the interesting bit yet again the GEFS ensembles upon reaching day 10 the members begin wind down the PV and eradicate heights to the East.

   to  

As the next week goes past I would think that the OP runs would starting looking a bit more interesting as they go further and further in FI as a lot of the GEFS promotes WAA towards the polar regions. I'm no LRF but I would put a fiver on Feb being the main attraction of winter.

 

[Jason M]

36 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It's 384 hours (16 days) away - it isn't going to happen!

That specific chart won't, but in an obviously over the top way it illustrates what all the models are showing once this rather cold spell ends for days 6-15. The charts and ensemble suites are dominated by high pressure and perhaps more importantly, high pressure over Iberia. Given that it's an El Niño year and the already obvious back ground signal to this winter a very lengthy period of dry and relatively mild weather (at least in 850s terms) is probably odds on. These heights to our south historically take some serious shifting historically once established.

completely respect others will disagree, but taking into account all the available info that I can see we are a very long way indeed from a significantly cold outbreak. Of course I could be wrong and will be happy if that's proved to be the case. Maybe the strat will help? 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Jason M

[Singularity]

Having all those attempts from GFS to build higher heights north through the UK is of interest considering that there is much talk of a potent mountain torque event across the Rockies about a week from now which AFAIK should trigger considerable amplification of the pattern, the like of which the models often struggle to capture effectively at the longer-range.

Even before then, the drop in AAM and associated addition of westerly momentum at our latitudes may continue to be toned down, allowing the high to remain in control of our weather. It's location and orientation then proves important for surface temperatures, as a comparison of the 06z and 12z GFS det. runs will show you nicely. I would post charts but my laptop's having a 'moment'.

 

[shotski]

7 minutes ago, jesusfernandez said:

Ill get the BBQ and burguers ready

But that would be a cold chart if it was to verify , very low night time minima and single digits day time. 

[Daniel*]

A consensus of shunting the cold out to North Sea and beyond by end of the 'working week' for SE. It is assured the UK will experience some familiar south-westerlies, although I have an incline it will not last that long ie. swallowing up January, looking at ARPEGE at T+114hr we can build on from here, with WAA going polewards. Anomalies suggest stubborn euro high is set to establish again, but we may require some patience here, but I think the eventual outcome will be a very good one, Winter 15/16 will have a sting to its tail I sense.

Here is what is possible with a grossly worse profile to the far NW...

Food for thought?  

 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

But that would be a cold chart if it was to verify , very low night time minima and single digits day time. 

In 2m temps you are probably right. It's that old faux cold making a comeback 

if that were a summer chart people in here would be salivating at the prospects! 

[chris55]

I think ill give it just one more day before embracing the Atlantic mild. The chances of an undercut at the end of he week are pretty much zero, but until i see tomorrows 12z showing such im just going to hold fire.  

ECM and GFS at T96

[SMU]

Hummm

that atlantic ridge needs to sharpen up then it maybe game on....

lots of cold on tap to the east

s

Edited January 17, 2016 by Steve Murr

[snowray]

Yes pretty depressing. Every model wants to bring this in, or high pressure over Southern Spain or Northern Italy. It would seem to me that a re-set of this kind might be a rather risky strategy at this stage of Winter proper, notwithstanding the strat warming or what highly respected posters are expecting in February.

I would prefer to see if things can develop differently later this week. A more positive scenario may be for the current HP and block holding and shifting further North eventually, no one is showing this at the moment though. 

The big question of course is can the Atlantic be held at bay for much longer.

 

 

FI but good charts there from ECM

 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by snowray

[Rocheydub]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hummm

that atlantic ridge needs to sharpen up then it maybe game on....

lots of cold on tap to the east

s

You need to charge your phone Steve!!! :-)

Seriouusly though, I like the look of that, I can't access the charts on this heap of rubbish, what timescale is that and I assume it's ECM?

[mulzy]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hummm

that atlantic ridge needs to sharpen up then it maybe game on....

lots of cold on tap to the east

s

Indeed Steve - leads to this at day 9 (all FI of course but trends etc.)

Not a bad chart...

 

[Eskimo]

ECM day 10 - Southerly tracking lows, a ridge in the Atlantic and large area of high pressure heading towards Scandinavia. Lovely!

[bluearmy]

yes it's an fi op run but nice to see the depression train losing contact with the northern arm late on.  no joy to be had dropping euro heights from that day 10 set up ..........................

[Catacol]

Well, well.... 27th January and bang on schedule here is the ecm op. Fascinating. Start of a new trend?

(Aargh why can't I copy and paste a chart on an iPad? Apple junk....)

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Catacol

[tight isobar]

Ecm this evening continues to wet the appetite ..

That peninsulas formation of evolving pressure rises' is for me the game changer the belly feeling screams mass potential.

Im taking things step by step in view' but when digging for gold don't go against what lies in front of you!!! @russianpeninsular....

[booferking]

That,s more like it moving forward with the ECM getting away from this rot we are in moving on to a nice new trend.

[IDO]

Just now, Catacol said:

Well, well.... 27th January and bang on schedule here is the ecm op. Fascinating. Start of a new trend?

 

Yes what happens with the pressure rise over the UK, can it cut through the Euro trough and connect with the heights to the east? No trend from the GEFS yet, three clusters, about 33% supporting the ECM effort and 50% going with the GFS op (UK HP) and the rest a mix and match between the two.

Whether this is a trend or ECM over amplifying only time will tell, however it is certainly an option at the moment and we will hopefully see it grow. I for one do not believe that the UK high will verify as per the GFS op and control in FI. Those waves of energy from the Azores look ripe to barrel through the Euro trough and GEM also goes this way:

[Captain Shortwave]

Speaking of the ECM solution, not a bad effort from the JMA either.

 

This looks to be the solution to watch as the GEM has been toying with this solution over previous runs. The GFS ensembles are now pushing the high far enough north to keep most places dry during week 2. So no real sign yet of a proper zonal spell developing even if conditions do turn less cold for a while.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Captain Shortwave