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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Where do you find those up close charts? Do you have a link please?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If I read the charts right both ECM and UKMO could have a proper snow threat for some parts on Monday, even the south may get lucky. If they verify of course.

Can't say the same for the UKMO but the ECM is very cold (most areas at zero or below) but dry for most. Has a few wintry showers for the far east but nothing more than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Can't say the same for the UKMO but the ECM is very cold (most areas at zero or below) but dry for most. Has a few wintry showers for the far east but nothing more than that.

What's your thoughts for Southern Ireland Nick?

Could be snowy over here would have thought....

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

What's your thoughts for Southern Ireland Nick?

Could be snowy over here would have thought....

Only going by the 3 hourly precip charts on the EC, but even Ireland is largely dry. Fronts just about edge into the far SW but this wouldn't be particularly wintry anyway. The Atlantic is very much held at arms length.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ECM1-144.thumb.gif.fd88359050d56b5da0f4a

no easterly but still cold looking cold till the end of the run

that will do for now winter is finally here

very very cold in Europe we tap into that cold anytime this winter where be skating for weeks lol

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I'd like to know what is so poor about the ECM 144h chart? It's showing very cold surface temps, with what may be a retrogressing high towards the North. Again, it's almost like we haven't had the warmest December in 70-odd years, and the wettest on record. 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Euro4 has a little back edge snow for some through the early hours and into tomorrow morning and then sleet and snow showers feeding in from the NW from Thursday night through Friday

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Th 14.01.2016 06 GMT

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, PerfectStorm said:

I'd like to know what is so poor about the ECM 144h chart? It's showing very cold surface cold, with what may be a retrogressing high towards the North. Again, it's almost like we haven't had the warmest December in 70-odd years, and the wettest on record. 

I meant poor for building the blocks to get widespread heavy disruptive snowfall into England.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I meant poor for building the blocks to get widespread heavy disruptive snowfall into England.

its close though id be more inclined to think its going to stay pretty cold for sometime with retrogression possible and a warming event end of jan perhaps

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

144_mslp500_arc.png?cb=413

Any room for that ridge to head for Svalbard I wonder? Doesn't seem to be anything up there to keep the heights from rising as the WAA advances.

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I'd like to know what is so poor about the ECM 144h chart? It's showing very cold surface temps, with what may be a retrogressing high towards the North. Again, it's almost like we haven't had the warmest December in 70-odd years, and the wettest on record. 

I guess because the high is sinking with too much energy on top.

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

I wouldn't worry about 120hr plus charts anyway. The models will continue to evolve the pattern and Stella charts at 120hrs plus are about as good as a marzipan thing beginning with D. Much better to see these appear at a closer range.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, emotional rollercoaster said:

its close though id be more inclined to think its going to stay pretty cold for sometime with retrogression possible and a warming event end of jan perhaps

More runs needed but now it does look like the UKMO is the odd one out as posted above, the UKMO is the only one out the 3 that's likely to bring in a really potent frigid upper 850 profile from the E to N quadrant.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

We are going to get this drama for every system that swing in along the base of that Newfoundland trough aren't we :p

It is turning into one of those months with poor model verification for all models at 5-6 days out. Still it looks cold until the middle of next week which is a good 3-4 days longer than some models were going for a day or so ago which is a start.

Yes, models are very poor at the moment! The 20th on yesterday's ECM and the 20th on today's ECM :

ECM1-192.GIF?12ECM1-168.GIF?13-0

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I meant poor for building the blocks to get widespread heavy disruptive snowfall into England.

I think that is pretty unlikely with the current set up. We may get a bit of snowfall from the disrupting trough. If it was significant would be quickly followed by rain and then SWesterlies. The more likely scenario is that we get a high somewhere near us which essentially  makes it dry for most places. How cold depends on the exact - the further N the better.

Edited by swilliam
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I'd like to know what is so poor about the ECM 144h chart? It's showing very cold surface cold, with what may be a retrogressing high towards the North. Again, it's almost like we haven't had the warmest December in 70-odd years, and the wettest on record. 

Agreed, 144hr is FI at this stage. The UK is embarking on its coldest spell of weather since March 2013 here we are approaching nearly 3 years later. It seems snow is on the top of people's agenda including mine, which clearly tempers - the tone in here, but finally some proper cold, not the wishy-washy type.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

More runs needed but now it does look like the UKMO is the odd one out as posted above, the UKMO is the only one out the 3 that's likely to bring in a really potent frigid upper 850 profile from the E to N quadrant.

It's been the odd one out for a while :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Not the most pleasing run in terms of how all those low pressure systems interact in the Atlantic. The timing is a bit nasty. I note the UKMO is considerably slower to get a blob of cold from the central U.S. involved and this seems to focus the deeper trough action further west while to the east the weaker trough extension disrupts.

Having managed to create such a deep low to the west at +168 and with the blob of low heights over the pole getting involved as well, the game looks to be up

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