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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The Great Gardens of Cornwall have announced the beginning of spring as the six champion Magnolia campbellii trees have each flowered with over 50 blooms. These are spread between Caerhays Castle Gardens, Trebah Garden, Tregothnan, Trewidden, Trewithen and The Lost Gardens of Heligan.

Magnolias in bloom at Caerhays Castle, Cornwall Credit: Paul Felix

alamy-caerhays-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLI

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
31 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Morning all. Beautiful day. white grass and  blue skies. Not a breath of wind (who was Imogen??). -5.1c

Not sure but I heard she had some gusto about her :D

Snow hopes are still clinging on by a thread this morning with more fantasy snow events for a weeks time as is always the case!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I feel like swearing quite profusely right now!!! 

How long do we wait for Channel low, and when we get one, IN FEBRUARY, it's a flipping rain rain event :wallbash::wallbash::wallbash:

 

 

gfs-0-48.png

gfs-0-54.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I feel like swearing quite profusely right now!!! 

How long do we wait for Channel low, and when we get one, IN FEBRUARY, it's a flipping rain rain event :wallbash::wallbash::wallbash:

 

 

gfs-0-48.png

gfs-0-54.png

I thought bit was a rain to sleet/snow event possibly?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
12 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I thought bit was a rain to sleet/snow event possibly?

Hi NK, I think you will do alright out of this, presuming it doesn't keep correcting south. Elevation is going to be the key I think. 

Hopes are pinned on the GFS delivering the easterly from Scandi High, but the 06z is downgrading the idea of that, so lets see what the 12z bring. 

I just don't think it is cold enough to deliver low level snow on saturday, by the time the colder uppers arrive and the DP drops, the precip has gone. Evap cooling could be a player, but I won't be holding my breathe this weekend.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi NK, I think you will do alright out of this, presuming it doesn't keep correcting south. Elevation is going to be the key I think. 

Hopes are pinned on the GFS delivering the easterly from Scandi High, but the 06z is downgrading the idea of that, so lets see what the 12z bring. 

I just don't think it is cold enough to deliver low level snow on saturday, by the time the colder uppers arrive and the DP drops, the precip has gone. Evap cooling could be a player, but I won't be holding my breathe this weekend.

Its been trending south for the last 3 or 4 runs I reckon by the time it arrives it will be france bound.  So another non-event.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Well given the choice between rain or no precipitation, I'd go with the latter.

Meanwhile, best day of the week here. White frosty start and now gloriously sunny.

Edited by MP-R
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A low of -1.4°C. Frosty start, sunny spells.

Temp: 6.5°C - Hum: 78% - Dew: 2.9°C - Bar: 1003.95hPa - Wind: Calm.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Well I am still remaining positive for now.. we have had a southward correction so far and temperatures are very marginal but above 150/200m might get something late saturday if we get ppn intensity?

-4 uppers is marginal too but not impossible I have seen snow with uppers warmer than this with a continental feed although rare.

Edited by Nights King
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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Usual story really, it's either cold enough but no precipitation or there is precipitation but its not cold enough...

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

OK where's Karlos this morning, he MUST have had a frost this morning...

Ha yes definitely had a nice frost this morning. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

A lovely winter morning turned into a beautiful spring day. If there's going to be no snow about, I'd happily fast forward to spring now, it's so lovely to feel the sun on your face.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

*****UPGRADE TO SLEET WATCH*****

 

image.jpeg

And what's this all about :nea:

 

image.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
25 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

*****UPGRADE TO SLEET WATCH*****

 

image.jpeg

And what's this all about :nea:

 

image.png

The one for next week will be downgraded I promise :nea:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Yes, a sleet to rain event with elevation most likely. :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The GFS has given up, it can't be bothered to update past +66 and who can blame it

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Really surprised they would put an early warning out for 7 to 8 days ahead when Sunday's Countryfile forecast only ever goes up to the Friday (6 days) now.

Perfect day and the best for a long time due to no threat of showers ; hard frost, bright blue sky, long sunny periods, good convective Cumulus this afternoon and calm throughout.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Not sure it's an early warning as such, but yes it does seem a bit odd to even mention it this far out.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
9 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

What sayeth you? Take this man outside an flog him, with 1000 lashes.:girl_devil:

The theme of the year is "DOWNGRADE", yet man you speaketh of UPGRADE, thoust has the tongue of the devil!:diablo:

Thou shalt not be judged until after the event, besides, the devil is in the detail. :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure it's an early warning as such, but yes it does seem a bit odd to even mention it this far out.

Yes it will be altered in a couple of days to ...except for the south west which will get some well deserved rain with sleet on highest hills :angry:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GFS has some snow middle of next week on the weak front but does run it through Whereas the METO has it petering out.

Quote

 

During Wednesday and Thursday, the rain and hill snow is expected to spread across Wales and England, but is likely to stall across central parts whilst dying out. Brighter weather with scattered wintry showers follows into northern and western areas.

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_24.thumb.png.042f56f07gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_28.thumb.png.6c326a79b

But moving on

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_31.thumb.png.1ed966c39

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Beautiful looking Cumulus over Culver about 20 minutes ago, 5 minute prior to it the base had a UFO shape, gutted i just missed it! but here ya go guys, taking off my phone

 

Culver UFO cumulus.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
29 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GFS has some snow middle of next week on the weak front but does run it through Whereas the METO has it petering out.

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_24.thumb.png.042f56f07gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_28.thumb.png.6c326a79b

But moving on

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_31.thumb.png.1ed966c39

Looks great for midlands knocker but that shows rain for the west country.

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