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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

Methuselah

By Methuselah
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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Oh look, another possible snow event in a weeks time. Watch this one become more and more wet as we near it. I think I've written off this weekend and will leave any good surprises to luck. It's all or nothing for me now - if it ain't cold enough, let's not have the precipitation at all!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
23 minutes ago, knocker said:

A couple of hail showers which I managed to catch. The latest GFS for Saturday

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_14.thumb.png.bc6710909

:bad:

ah well, at least we won't have to put up with the more northern members showing off :rofl:

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, knocker said:

A couple of hail showers which I managed to catch. The latest GFS for Saturday

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_14.thumb.png.bc6710909

So now Saturday is a write off according to that leaving us possible Sunday early hours snow event to be next to disappear.  :sorry:

 

 Always possible that it will adjust southwards yet though.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Not even snow in Wales on that! Somehow I think that's wrong, as there's still a good chance at height of snow, but I think at least 400-500m ASL. That better now be how it transpires otherwise I won't even be going to the Brecon Beacons!

Until further notice, I shall just watch Severe Weather Europe's videos of snow in the Alps on facebook.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

2016 - The year of the downgrade...

So what were 2014 and 2015 winters called... :nonono:

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Paul T Explorer

Paul T

Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead
Posted (edited)

The rule I have always worked to is that you need the following in place before I even consider the possibility of the white stuff:

1) Are the Upper 850's below -5oC? YES/NO

2) Is the HGT 500-1000 below 528? YES/NO

If the answer to those is yes, then you have an awesome chance of the white stuff. If its close to the above paramiters, then the next question is:

3) Is there entrenched cold present (Daytime temps hovering around 1 or 2 oC) ? YES/NO

If thats a no, then you havent usually got a much of a hope, at sea level at least.

If all three are 'NO' then I dont even consider snow a possibility - and that has pretty much always been the case for this weekend unfortunately.

If im pushed to have a hope for snow over the coming 4 or 5 days, then I would say Saturday Night into Sunday Morning is the only chance, but it requires upgrades...

Paul

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Paul T
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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

^^ Thanks for clearing that up Paul T. By that it would seem only Monday has both parameters in favour.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

This just been put on Twitter by Met 

so expect it to correct south lol 

not looking good at all

image.jpeg

The magical M4 corridor :wallbash:

Edited by karlos1983
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This just been put on Twitter by Met 

so expect it to correct south lol 

not looking good at all

image.jpeg

The magical M4 corridor :wallbash:

Well that really makes me feel sick to see that :bad: :80:

Utter tosh :angry:

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted
45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This just been put on Twitter by Met 

so expect it to correct south lol 

not looking good at all

image.jpeg

The magical M4 corridor :wallbash:

Well that's that then. I have to say i rate the MO in these type of set-ups. :(

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Well I don't know about anyone else, but, when considering the weekend's potential, I feel that the 7c we currently have isn't cold anyhow it's only average doesn't fill me with that element of hope that I might otherwise have. Granted, winds are set to turn Easterly which will help lower Temperatures a tad come the weekend but to bring any snow our way we'd need a drop of 4 to 5c before we get there. Tis only Wednesday and a lot of time to go yet in order to see an upgrade. Whilst it is fascinating to at least hear media forecasts considering a snow risk, I'd personally bank on it being a Downs/Chilterns/Mendips prospect at best right now. The interest for me is moreover the timing of the precipitation band, how heavy it might become and the exact track of the surface feature, with all three issues yet resolved, it will be a fascinating watch. I'd be happy to even take hilltop snow for now given the poor situation we've all been in for the last few years.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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kent Experienced

kent

Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset
Posted

And so it continues lol. The constant bickering and disappointment in the various threads all desperately seeking a snow flake. Havent seen one this year and from a IMBY perspective don't expect to. But hey ho if one does happen to land on my nose I wont sniff at it.

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, kent said:

And so it continues lol. The constant bickering and disappointment in the various threads all desperately seeking a snow flake. Havent seen one this year and from a IMBY perspective don't expect to. But hey ho if one does happen to land on my nose I wont sniff at it.

Thankfully there is no bickering in this thread! All hoping that someone in here gets lucky......so to speak 8)

Edited by festivalking
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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted
2 hours ago, Nights King said:

So what were 2014 and 2015 winters called... :nonono:

Mr. R Sole & Mr. N O Hope?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, jethro said:

Mr. R Sole & Mr. N O Hope?

Then this one must be their close friend Mr P Nis!:D

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Then this one must be their close friend Mr P Nis!:D

I've been assured his cousin Ivor Biggon is coming to stay next winter.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, jethro said:

I've been assured his cousin Ivor Biggon is coming to stay next winter.

What a Carry On these last few winters have been!

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

For heavens sake, even next Wednesday's front sees a warm sector over us!

gfs-1-162.png?12

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

The GFS is now bringing the low on Saturday further south again. Wandering off into dreamland for a moment perhaps the best chance of a snow event may well be if we manage to get CAA established for a few days and then edge a front in from the west next week. Well it's a thought.

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_13.thumb.png.81cdc02f9gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_27.thumb.png.42810993

Edited by knocker
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, MP-R said:

For heavens sake, even next Wednesday's front sees a warm sector over us!

gfs-1-162.png?12

You couldn't make it up could you!

Luckily that is a long way off and likely to change... for the worse :wallbash:

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