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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Really would not worry about the uppers. They tend to be colder than shown by the models and -6 to -8 at this time of year given the set up will be plenty cold enough! 

This is the very best time for this to happen! 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Good evening everyone.:D

 

ECH101-216.GIF.thumb.png.ae8fc71ea57df43

Don't know about cloud 10. Think we should all be on cloud 9 after that run!

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Pressure aint exactly high and slack over the UK, surely some preciptation? Cold uppers for all..

3a.thumb.gif.0e94a2a6bae5e7c3dcccb58ce80 3b.thumb.gif.f78a7ed4e3f672e7c66888f4365

4a.thumb.gif.9979a8de7a3139b319cabb260bf 4b.thumb.gif.510a4f7d06a8549fdc1a97415e2

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Excellent UKMO output tonight. No drama with the Azores low and a re-load because of the upstream pattern. The GFS with some big differences and liable to cause nervous breakdowns in here because that could easily go pearshaped.

You never want to see high pressure ridging ne out of Iberia in this set up because then you're relying on things going right well into FI. Theres no guarantee they will,  more time for more variables to pop up and I really don't want that GFS to verify!

Totally agree with your assumption of that 12z Nick (GFS) - maybe I was to succinct with my post saying it 'wasn't a good run' but by means I was mainly reffering to longevity of a cold spell. Unfortunately one poster seemed fit to call it a 'drivel' post which we always get but compared to recent runs believe what I was saying was to a degree true backed up by your post (which got 9 likes) and mine not surprisingly none.

Fairly happy with the ecm though - no dramas and a fairly locked in cold spell. :)

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, offerman said:

Gfs charts don't look as good as they did on earlier runs :-(

The GEFS Mean looked very good, so plenty of very good runs in the ensemble suite. :D

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
8 hours ago, Mark N said:

Pressure aint exactly high and slack over the UK, surely some preciptation? Cold uppers for all..

3a.thumb.gif.0e94a2a6bae5e7c3dcccb58ce80 3b.thumb.gif.f78a7ed4e3f672e7c66888f4365

4a.thumb.gif.9979a8de7a3139b319cabb260bf 4b.thumb.gif.510a4f7d06a8549fdc1a97415e2

 

Yep ample chance for pop up disturbances in the flow.. Although not stagnant not exactly very convective either... But let's see how we shape up . Can feel plenty of now casting into next week.....and beyond.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

It looks like the UKMO at day 4 is out of step.  All the other models have a much slower evolution of the trigger low.  It could still be right though!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I would not worry about the uppers on the ECM either in the medium to longer term as they will change along with the detail but I am dissapointed its backtracked on having the trigger low further Eastwards which would allow more of that colder air in sooner which would reduce any chance of things becoming marginal later on in the run. 

The good thing is the projected Greenland high is there and I'm now accepting the trigger low over the UK will be slow moving and will delay the onset of cold weather as I'll be amazed if both GFS and ECM backtracked at this stage. I know people are saying the UKMO could become a toppler but I don't think that is full on conclusive and besides, plenty of weather between now and then. 

So whilst I think the 12Z UKMO is wrong, its by far the best output of the evening within 144 hours for cold lovers without a shadow of a doubt. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Totally agree with your assumption of that 12z Nick (GFS) - maybe I was to succinct with my post saying it 'wasn't a good run' but by means I was mainly reffering to longevity of a cold spell. Unfortunately one poster seemed fit to call it a 'drivel' post which we always get but compared to recent runs believe what I was saying was to a degree true backed up by your post (which got 9 likes) and mine not surprisingly none.

Lol! It certainly wasn't drivel. I tend to view outputs from margin for error for UK cold synoptics. The GFS had me reaching for the beta blockers, I don't like outputs that are one variable away past T144hrs from sinking without trace.

People mustn't assume that everything will go according to plan past T144hrs, for that reason the UKMO is the stand out run of the evening. It brings cold and snow all within that timeframe.

The ECM is a good run especially in the light of the winter so far and yes it will be very cold at the surface but the main interest all comes after T144hrs. I'm hard to please so perhaps people were shocked with my stingy rating for it!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

As Nick says the day 9&10 charts are showing ice days roughly Midlands northwards and some extremely low overnight temps (-10 to -15c) with lying snow, south of here temps around 3-4c and 5-6c around the coasts and 0 to -3c overnight inland. 

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

As Nick says the day 9&10 charts are showing ice days roughly Midlands northwards and some extremely low overnight temps (-10 to -15c) with lying snow, south of here temps around 3-4c and 5-6c around the coasts and 0 to -3c overnight inland. 

Where do you get this data from? Would be interested if it is premium.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
21 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

omg iceage ECM0-240.thumb.gif.80a2731d84305f3af33ba

brutal cold wont be no warm sectors worries look at scandi but unlikely very fi

Agree with the 'no warm sectors' comment, er; but, are uppers of circa -7C really all that 'brutal'. I also agree on the obvious synoptic similarities with 2010, but where are the sub -12C uppers?:)

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Where do you get this data from? Would be interested if it is premium.

I get it through work I'm afraid. It's very premium, you're talking hundreds of thousands a year.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Agree with the 'no arm sectors' comment, er; but, are uppers of circa -7C really all that 'brutal'. I also agree on the obvious synoptic similarities with 2010, but where are the sub -12C uppers?:)

Gonna be ruddy cold Pete under that, and if there are snowfields quite bitter

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Nick L said:

I get it through work I'm afraid. It's very premium, you're talking hundreds of thousands a year.

Thanks for replying Nick. Very grateful we get snippets every so often for us public! Cheers. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Gonna be ruddy cold Pete under that, and if there are snowfields quite bitter

 

BFTP

I won't disagree with that at all, Fred; our old friend 'Scottish Glen' will be shivering in his boots, no doubt! I'm just saying that many of us Southern Softies might have to make do with sleet or wet snow, rather than the lovely dry, powdery, drifty stuff so loved by Network Rail??:D

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well, I'm glad I wasn't online for the 12z GFS det. rolling out, as it seems specially designed to irritate southerners apart from that one snow event later next week. Not that I give any particular run much credit at the moment given the big fluctuations taking place with respect to the Azores low and to a lesser extent UK/Euro trough.

In general, more shortwaves in the flow which do mix out the cold a bit but also increase the snow chances - after all with lower heights, the 850's aren't as far from the surface values, improving the chance of cold air being drawn down with any persistent precipitation where the winds fall light. I must admit I do find GFS' idea of a breakaway low from the Azores merging with the UK trough and tracking through the Channel to be of interest but it does turn out to be the only snow chance of the whole run down here (western New Forest).

UKMO is notably cleaner with it's evolution, but seems too simplistic - yet it's not out of the question as others have said. A drier but colder evolution away from north and east-facing coasts.

 

When it comes to the behaviour of the Azores low, GFS goes phasing-mad as it brings lows off the U.S. into play. Some have warned of this possibility I know, but I'm not going to worry too much unless ECM and/or UKMO decide to run with it as well. As it is, ECM shows the movement into Europe that is arguably the most typical outcome in such scenarios, leaving us cold but without the excitement of heavy precipitation... unless, that is, a convergence line manages to set up to the north of the low pressure system.

 

Overall, it's very much clear that we have a lot to be sorted out with respect to how the jet stream behaves in the middle of the North Atlantic. Again UKMO is the notable exception at +144 among the 12z det. runs, as it has no linkup between the Azores and Euro troughs. This is much preferable for getting heights across Europe to remain low, and seems to be linked to the less disturbed nature of the UK/Euro trough on that run.

ECM's 12z det. is particularly encouraging in that it shows how easily the ridge over Europe can be obliterated again in the face of the blocking high to the NW. That it goes on to develop an omega block is a big bonus as well - the mid-Atlantic 'wall' is about to be reinforced as of day 10, keeping the Atlantic air at bay while more cold air seeps in from the NE. 

I use the word 'seeps' deliberately, as we're not seeing an airflow fast enough to bring the cold air in without a fair bit of moderation by the unusually warm North Sea. It's a good job the source looks so cold!

 

As a final thought, the sheer number of disturbances on the ECM 12z det. does look a bit over the top, so we may well see a cleaner import of cold air than that run suggests. How about a halfway house between that run and the UKMO 12z det.? :snowman-emoji:

 

...actually, I might as well throw in a nice chart; the GEM 12z, which shows us that even with a GFS 12z det. level of trough phasing around the Azores, the jet can still stay far south enough for the cold to remain in place:

gem-0-216.pnggem-0-240.png

Shows how unkind the GFS 12z det. was, really!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Off topic but to add to the mood....walking through town earlier and they seemed to be filling the grit bins up....so I'm guessing local councils have been notified of the potential by the Metoffice.

Great ECM run tonight, it is a shame about the uppers though...wouldn't want to see them raise any more. However if the cold spell beds in they should increasingly become less of an issue (within reason). ECM day 10 looks VERY cold. I'd say minima down to -15C over any lying snow.

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3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

So can we safely say the models are now predicting a Greenland high of big proportions, trop led without any SSW just wave breaking, and that we can produce cold Synoptics without upper strat effects?.....Super El Niño?

Your username is very apt given the end of the JMA run this evening...

PZlTDCa.png

(thanks to Rob K over on TWO for the image!)

Edited by CAPE-steve
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

@nick sussex I do think 6 was a bit stingy for the ECM, I'd push a 7. But if the uppers it are showing in fl come to fruition, then I'll give it a 10.high5 :D it's not often the south coast get to see that!

ECH0-216.GIF?07-0ECH0-240.GIF?07-0

HUBBA HUBBA

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