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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hard frosts and Ice days with lying snow and awaiting an Easterly (though maybe not amplified enough this run behind) - good old pub run was overdue.

gfs-9-234.png?18gfsnh-0-240.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Deep fi but let the easterly commence 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Models really at sixes and sevens  weve gone from raging sw  to more of a cold spell in the last few hours. Absolutely no idea what going to happen, Im just loving the ride 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

very angry PV

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

unbelievable Tekkers!

gfsnh-0-234.png?18gfsnh-1-234.png?18

incoming !!!!!!!!!!

 

Hows your eye's BA:rofl:

Come on Karlos, show me where the really  visible amplification difference was at T96 ?  The shortwave is slightly less marked East but the amplification looks virtually identical at T96. If you had used the jet analysis it you would have probably been clearer. 

Given that the ECM parallel is as progressive as the ECM op, I'm not very hopeful that the block will be as far north in week 2. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Deep fi but let the easterly commence 

I believe it's a completely plausible option looking at the whole of the northern hemisphere. A uk high drifting slowly east with low heights drifting slowly east through Iberia. Why not I say. 

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Posted
  • Location: orpington kent
  • Weather Preferences: winter is frost and snow/summer is heatwaves
  • Location: orpington kent

hi all the cold air to the east of uk is going to be  very hard move. in time it could move west then bingo:cold:

h850t850eu.png

Edited by london and south east kent
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

The 18z doesn't really change anything lol. The 12z ens had huge scatter around 17-18-19 but the 12z op was on the mild side. 18z just the other side of the coin. Until we get some tight clustering around these dates confidence will be low in either outcome.

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ye olde rap around! ..

Nice pivotal hp..wanting to grade and tap continental upper air..and the kara sea arm punching hard .....lets get some modeled link of scandi/kara hp

@mid week cross suites.

gfs-0-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

18z is amazing run after the initial wintry period we get a cold high with little precip for those in the NW. 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL

GFS 18z run probably the best run of the day for prolonging the cold? Cant believe i'm saying this but hopefully the other models will follow the GFS!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Come on Karlos, show me where the really  visible amplification difference was at T96 ?  The shortwave is slightly less marked East but the amplification looks virtually identical at T96. If you had used the jet analysis it you would have probably been clearer. 

Given that the ECM parallel is as progressive as the ECM op, I'm not very hopeful that the block will be as far north in week 2. 

It was tongue in cheek I assure you BA, pure fluke on my part we ended up here lol

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This thread is like the Stock Exchange with either panic buying or selling of shares, instead of Hedge Funds we have Sledge Funds! sorry that's the best I could do!

Nice to see the GFS 18hrs run backtracking, although it still phased the trough with the Azores low it shows that this hurdle can be overcome if other things are more favourable.

So long as we don't get slush funds!

Yeah nice to see that Azores low didn't blow up the trough in the same way, still prefer to have it out of the picture though.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
On 5 January 2016 at 11:32 PM, inghams85 said:

That's what's confusing because it is the start of the cold spell. Just not the start of the really cold spell. It's also not a topples because no mild air will come in. 11th - 16th (cold , -5,-6 uppers) possible snow showers, features, 16-20th (cold but dry to higher pressure) 20th - first week in feb (very cold spell with north easterly/ easterly winds as the NAO becomes more east based. This is where the confusion lies. CC is calling it a topples (no disrespect but but mild air has to arrive from the west to be classed as a classic toppler) and GP and Chiono's are rightly saying actually it's longer lasting as after the North Atlantic high and showers we have a cold high and then more brutal cold after 

I have been waiting but now feeing fairly confident on what I felt the background signals were telling me. As above I think I've called the dates and conditions fairly well. Time will tell

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, Stormeh said:

 

 

download.jpg

Very good:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

"I'd prefer if my investment wasn't watered down" ha

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

Overall trend across the models is good today compared to the way things were going yesterday.  I am not gonna get excited by one good GFS run as these are like rolling a dice lately.  Lets hope the momentum keeps going tomorrow with favourable trends becoming agreed on by all models and moving out of F1 and into reliable bit by bit.

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