Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

Upstream the ECM is different to the GFS which is much flatter at T144hrs. The ECM won't send all the energy east like the GFS at T168hrs.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

T144. Similar to T120 in that the ECM is a little more amplified and west compared to the GFS. UKMO looking the most different in comparison once again.

 

Certainly be interesting to hear what the meto musings are, if they back the ECM or UKMO. 

[Snowman.]

Just now, radiohead said:

T144. Similar to T120 in that the ECM is a little more amplified and west compared to the GFS. UKMO looking the most different in comparison once again.

 

Yes but the UKMO has support from other models as stated the problem here is that it isn't the GFS or ECM. However the ECM is still cold while the GFS is bringing in the warmth. So I wouldn't throw the ECM in the GFS basket because the GFS is simply too fast. ECM is the mid point between the two and I would say most likely solution so I would watch the UKMO and GFS backtrack to the ECM midground. 

[Daniel*]

Cheshire gap scenario on the T+48hr chart? Kitchen sink sort of day a biting raw N/W wind would feel blooming freezing.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Redwood said:

UKMO is the best run there for cold?

 

I have no doubt that you are right in what you say, Redwood - and, of course, this is the Model thread. But, how can we possibly know which model, if any, will call it right?

[chris55]

This could be minus double digit overnight temps in the prone spots across England and Wales.

 

[northwestsnow]

I'm more interested in potential snow wed/thur- not sure what to make of ecm in that crucial 72/96 timeframe really

[Continental Climate]

For me the issue is now settled really I think we will have a decent cold spell with chances of snow for many then the high will topple onto the UK and give us a couple of days of crisp frost and preserving the snow cover for those lucky enough to get some.

After that I think it is 50/50 what happens either it sinks to a EURO high and the vileness that entails or it retrogresses slightly north.

[Long haul to mild]

It's all going to end up with HP over the UK regardless; it seems to be more a question of how quickly it gets here, with UKMO being the one to hold onto the cold the longest.

Middle grounds are often the end product so ECM evolution looks most likely at present. Wouldn't rule out some more twists and turns yet though!

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

This could be minus double digit overnight temps in the prone spots across England and Wales.

 

Yep, a pretty frigid run this...

 

[Tim Brawn]

Just now, Continental Climate said:

For me the issue is now settled really I think we will have a decent cold spell with chances of snow for many then the high will topple onto the UK and give us a couple of days of crisp frost and preserving the snow cover for those lucky enough to get some.

After that I think it is 50/50 what happens either it sinks to a EURO high and the vileness that entails or it retrogresses slightly north.

for you its settled but 50/50 which way ot could go , that's that settled then  

 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Yes but the UKMO has support from other models as stated the problem here is that it isn't the GFS or ECM. However the ECM is still cold while the GFS is bringing in the warmth. So I wouldn't throw the ECM in the GFS basket because the GFS is simply too fast. ECM is the mid point between the two and I would say most likely solution so I would watch the UKMO and GFS backtrack to the ECM midground. 

However, the trend this afternoon from both the GFS and now ECM is to downgrade the duration of the cold spell. This is more evident if you compare where the high pressure was projected to sit by the 0z ECM compared to the 12z. Further south and east. The ECM would give us a cold weekend at the surface but it will turn mild thereafter.

[Day 10]

Cold and frosty

[Snowman.]

I wouldn't get too caught up with the ECM tonight, still cold with snow opportunities next weekend. Chin up people we still have a month and a half of winter and I don't think this will be the last shot at cold.

[nick sussex]

As Mucka mentioned earlier the issue is the Azores low. The UKMO has just enough good phasing upstream to swing the PV lobe and troughing further nw which then can't phase with the Azores low.

The GFS/ECM phase this.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

However, the trend this afternoon from both the GFS and now ECM is to downgrade the duration of the cold spell. This is more evident if you compare where the high pressure was projected to sit by the 0z ECM compared to the 12z. Further south and east. The ECM would give us a cold weekend at the surface but it will turn mild thereafter.

And likely to be different again tomorrow.

[Aaki Khan]

T192 ECM. Miles Away. But long way back from that chart i suppose if it verifies. 

[Mucka]

ECM more in line with GFS than UKMO re the Azores low only it brings it up a little later (here just SW of Ireland)

It is less progressive and more amplified than GFS but on the same page with the synoptic of bringing the trough East and flattening the ridge even if that can mean quite big differences at teh surface for us, at least as far as prolonging cold and delaying a Westerly flow by 24/48h

JMA is quite good at 120 as far as amplification but the Azores low is already phasing with the Atlantic trough by 132 and by 168 all the energy is heading East with a flatter pattern developing al la GFS.

Overall GFS looks to have been too progressive but it seems to have trumped all the other models again with developing its flatter pattern,

Actually I should add there is still no model consensus and UKMO could yet be right but a definite swing toward GFS tonight from JMA and ECM

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mucka

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

And likely to be different again tomorrow.

Then we shouldn't be discussing at all what the models are saying because they change!

The key is to look at the trends and this afternoon's trend is not a good one.

[tight isobar]

Much cleaner un' erratic's from the level headed model (ecm)

There's going to be plenty of my favourite ......@pinpoint nowcasting in the coming days. 

And I wouldn't be at all surprised for some stunning evolution/evolutionary. .come mid-week going forwards. 

[Methuselah]

Just now, nick sussex said:

As Mucka mentioned earlier the issue is the Azores low. The UKMO has just enough good phasing upstream to swing the PV lobe and troughing further nw which then can't phase with the Azores low.

The GFS/ECM phase this.

Is it Nick? Or is it more matter of whether-or-not the Arctic (whether of maritime or Continental origin) air has sufficient momentum? Later in the year, I think it will have; but, now, it could well be a matter of our needing two (maybe three?) bites at the cherry?

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, Aaki Khan said:

T192 ECM. Miles Away. But long way back from that chart i suppose if it verifies. 

If that chart verifies for the 18th then January can be written off. PV over its usual home and a developing slug. I for one don't think it will verify however and I think the high may move north after its had a holiday in the uk

[Liam J]

Hate to say it but a nod towards the GFS from the ECM this evening although the ECM keeps the cold for a bit longer.... 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

The cold hangs on in the se until T192hrs. The surface flow would be off a very cold mainland Europe. But the Azores low phasing is the big issue this evening.

This Azores low has hung around like a bad smell and seems to be waiting for an opportunity to get in on the act.

The differences moving forward between the UKMO and the rest is huge because the UKMO could swing that PV lobe even further nw at T168hrs.

Again though the Azores low is only an issue because of those differences upstream. I think at this point for ones own sanity its best to accept the ECM as the likelier solution and if theres a change great.

[northwestsnow]

Well Ok ecm rapidly goes downhill after 120 but hopefully cold enough for a few days for those lucky enough to get lying snow thur should hold on to it for a good 2 or 3 days which will be lovely for the lucky ones