Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year


Captain Shortwave

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

Went for a run early today to beat yet another onslaught of a write off day of wet and mild weather. 

Heading to Westfield later to browse and grab some lunch indoors. 

This weather is absolutely mind numbing, roll on Spring.. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Hints of brightness in the sky now disappearing off to the east as the rain band moves closer. Fairly chilly night and only 5.6C at 08.00.
Here's the latest radar at 09.00, and just for fun the GFS forecast chart for the same time showing how accurate the model is when it's only 5 hours away!! :D

5688eaca9ee57_Rainfall09.00.thumb.jpg.af5688ead1f3be8_GFSUKPrecip09.00.thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

And here comes my friend, the rain. Again.

Last day of sanity before work starts again tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

 

If you both got through the winter of 2013/2014 okay, then you'll be fine with this one, it's almost over already too.:reindeer-emoji:  How are you both with thunderstorms?:cold-emoji:

It started clouding over and the breeze has picked up, expecting the first flakes of snow soon.:cold: That easterly breeze sure is:cold::cold::cold: I threw  some chicken in the garden.....as you do and ravens turned up, filled their beaks and flew off, don't tell me they have babies in the depths of winter.:shok::help::bomb::reindeer-emoji:

Thank you lassie. Like all phobias it's irrational. I know I'm safe but it doesn't stop me getting anxious about stormy weather. It's the noise mainly. I do have a room in the house which is,away from SW/W/S winds and hide in there with headphones if need be!

I've been slowly improving over the years tho. I spend a lot of time in Cornwall and I've been increasing my exposure to higher winds gradually including going outside in high winds and driving rain(not as scary as it sounds). The valentines storm was a small set back for me, but it's general progress.

Apologies for going OT btw.

Now as for those birds I was out walking home one evening last week and the birds were still singing at 9pm!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Rain alarm saying  7  miles away looks like  its here  fore the day

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
11 hours ago, amanda2012 said:

@Frost Hollow it's horrible isn't it I also remember that valentines night it was awful 

It was the last bad night I've had so far. I spend a lot of time in Cornwall now and being routinely exposed to strong winds(and outside a lot of the time) has really helped me manage my anxiety. Like a home made exposure therapy. But,yes,it's horrible and people can be unkind which really isn't helpful

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

There was a glorious red sunrise in Colchester this morning. Unfortunately I couldn't properly capture it, as I had an unplanned drinking session and stayed the night at a friend's house...

It quickly gave way to the current dross - the start of another unsettled spell. At least there's nothing out of the ordinary, wind wise, showing in the models in the reliable timeframe. :) 

Edited by Steve C
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

We hardly seemed to get a dry sunny Sunday in 2015 & now 2016 starts the repeat process.

Only positive I can think of is by the time we get to the end of this month we should gain about 45mins of daylight in the afternoon, longer on "Sunny Days" too.....if we ever get one!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

To those with gales phobia I can understand how you feel, I funny enough am not keen on lightning as i was about 50m away from a lightning bolt once and witnessing the damage it done I can't say I look forward to a storm let alone chase one!

I hate them at night when in bed so what I do is simply go downstairs into the lounge, put the lights on an sit with my dab radio using my earphones, sometimes I've fallen asleep or I go back to bed when its passed, I don't mind daytime storms too much.

What I don't recommend to those with a weather phobia is to search for what you don't like, don't worry about things shown/suggested 48hrs away, these will often change, keep in mind what you don't like others do and more often than not they talk it up more than it is and often show the worse chart on offer.

I know plenty that hate snow, the older members in my family hate it, one was stranded for 7hrs in 2010 & got into a right old state over it so they are loving our weather the last couple of years and they only want a snow heads up when 72hrs away and not me telling them what a chart shows in the deepest FI.....uneeded stress.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

To those with gales phobia I can understand how you feel, I funny enough am not keen on lightning as i was about 50m away from a lightning bolt once and witnessing the damage it done I can't say I look forward to a storm let alone chase one!

I hate them at night when in bed so what I do is simply go downstairs into the lounge, put the lights on an sit with my dab radio using my earphones, sometimes I've fallen asleep or I go back to bed when its passed, I don't mind daytime storms too much.

What I don't recommend to those with a weather phobia is to search for what you don't like, don't worry about things shown/suggested 48hrs away, these will often change, keep in mind what you don't like others do and more often than not they talk it up more than it is and often show the worse chart on offer.

I know plenty that hate snow, the older members in my family hate it, one was stranded for 7hrs in 2010 & got into a right old state over it so they are loving our weather the last couple of years and they only want a snow heads up when 72hrs away and not me telling them what a chart shows in the deepest FI.....uneeded stress.

I avoid the modelling/Atlantic storm threads this time of year. As you say there are plenty love a storm and are focussing on any signs of a brewing one,much like I look for snow and will seize on the tiniest glimmer of one. The vast majority come to nothing significant though. I stick to the met for gale warnings and then look a bit closer 24/36 hours out and no sooner.Maybe one day I'll overcome it and also get excited about potential storms, but I suspect its something I'll just have to cope with

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Afternoon

 

Managed to get some outside jobs done before the rain arrived, but was too late to get to the shop and back dry, oh well, that is why I brought the outdoor gear to wear as I do a lot of walking and you get used to it.

 

Certainly is a dull and wet day all round going by the radar, glad the wind is not included this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Radar looking very wet soon would  be  surprised  of some flooding in the low  parts ,  of  ipswich dare say  Mr  blessed will agree   with  me

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
On 01/01/2016 at 1:15 PM, Froze were the Days said:
1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

To those with gales phobia I can understand how you feel, I funny enough am not keen on lightning as i was about 50m away from a lightning bolt once and witnessing the damage it done I can't say I look forward to a storm let alone chase one!

I hate them at night when in bed so what I do is simply go downstairs into the lounge, put the lights on an sit with my dab radio using my earphones, sometimes I've fallen asleep or I go back to bed when its passed, I don't mind daytime storms too much.

What I don't recommend to those with a weather phobia is to search for what you don't like, don't worry about things shown/suggested 48hrs away, these will often change, keep in mind what you don't like others do and more often than not they talk it up more than it is and often show the worse chart on offer.

I know plenty that hate snow, the older members in my family hate it, one was stranded for 7hrs in 2010 & got into a right old state over it so they are loving our weather the last couple of years and they only want a snow heads up when 72hrs away and not me telling them what a chart shows in the deepest FI.....uneeded stress.

Personally feel you won't be too far away with that forecast for January - I'm going to do my calculations for December in a minute and soon will post it. Cheers and Happy New Year everyone!

I'm not dissiilar - I quite enjoy daylight storms but am a bit twitchy at night.  Summer 2015 didn't help - we had a storm around midnight with a bolt striking no more than 300 yards away, and we had the back door open at that time (trying to get the cat to come in) which only made it seem louder!

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Snowing now in the Alps to about 800 meters, better late than never but a sure sign that winter has arrived in Western Europe . I would expect winter to start knocking on our doors in a couple of weeks time. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and plenty of it.
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent

Model Output thread has gone ballistic over latest charts. Expect a huge rise in members logging on for the great will it won't it debate over the next week. Looking good though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
22 minutes ago, terryall said:

Model Output thread has gone ballistic over latest charts. Expect a huge rise in members logging on for the great will it won't it debate over the next week. Looking good though.

Yep !! Things are starting to look interesting, ECM 12z would be a dream of a chart if it came off at day 10. A cold spell of some sorts looks a good bet now around mid January. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
7 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

To those with gales phobia I can understand how you feel, I funny enough am not keen on lightning as i was about 50m away from a lightning bolt once and witnessing the damage it done I can't say I look forward to a storm let alone chase one!

I hate them at night when in bed so what I do is simply go downstairs into the lounge, put the lights on an sit with my dab radio using my earphones, sometimes I've fallen asleep or I go back to bed when its passed, I don't mind daytime storms too much.

What I don't recommend to those with a weather phobia is to search for what you don't like, don't worry about things shown/suggested 48hrs away, these will often change, keep in mind what you don't like others do and more often than not they talk it up more than it is and often show the worse chart on offer.

I know plenty that hate snow, the older members in my family hate it, one was stranded for 7hrs in 2010 & got into a right old state over it so they are loving our weather the last couple of years and they only want a snow heads up when 72hrs away and not me telling them what a chart shows in the deepest FI.....uneeded stress.

Good advice.:good:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, shotski said:

I can definitely see that coming together, it has been behind the scenes been brewing for a while I believe. We were unfortunate this early January with block being too far NE, while much of Eastern Europe froze, but I think it is coming the forcing of the MJO in high amplitude, has overridden El Niño so to speak, additionally with polar vortex taking wave upon waves against the stern beast, and this is ongoing with modelled success no SSW though, to be frank it is not needed, perfect timing albeit I think a lot faster than the likes of GP anticipated.

The run shows cross polar heights great stuff for significant cold spell nationwide. In 2010 the models caught out a possible solution, and run with it like what the ECM has shown well not quite this. I think this could be happening here, the ECM day 10 mean is also impressive something is afoot. You can see if it all slots together we'll be on a our way to a sustained cold blast, a very decent one. All the way back in October I've been feeling something about this winter I'm not quite sure why, but I would be utterly astounded if we do not get a decent cold spell with decent snowfall by March 1st. I have seen many busts on here I think this may end out different , scope for some real winter weather outclassing 2013.

 wet day here top temp 9C, a ghastly start to 2016. :nonono:

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent

Just saw a flash of lightning out to sea! Looks as though southern coastal areas may hear a rumble or two in any heavy showers over the next couple of days:) Very wet day here today, many areas  flooded around here this evening. I hear Yalding has flooded badly again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
8 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Just saw a flash of lightning out to sea! Looks as though southern coastal areas may hear a rumble or two in any heavy showers over the next couple of days:) Very wet day here today, many areas  flooded around here this evening. I hear Yalding has flooded badly again. 

No surprise given the active convection shown on the models

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Decent cape values suggesting some beefy showers pushing onto the coasts of southern England, the Bristol channel and Wales.

A lot of wet weather for these parts given some prolonged periods of unusually unstable south westerlies over the coming week. But I would say it will be more exciting than seeing endless bands of heavy rain.

Weekly rainfall prediction

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

An inch or so widely, but much higher along Channel coasts due to a endless supply of showers moving in off the English Channel.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
15 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Hey guys anyone know if the storm on the 11th is going to affect us much any update on this? Thanks 

Hi Amanda. The latest gfs charts have increased the wind speeds for the 11th storm. Inland gusts showing around 85mph currently across the south east, stronger around coastal areas. 
It is however still a long long way off in forecasting terms and on the day the weather may be very different to what is currently showing. This is also only one weather model and others are not showing a storm at all. Still worth keeping an eye on mind you. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
2 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Oh brilliant 85mph in London? Have we had those sort of winds before? 

As others have said previously - It is still too far away to be taken seriously. Weather charts are changing every hour of the day and occasionally it will show something unusual which 99 times out of 100 will not verify. I must add that I'm no expert and I'm simply telling you what the gfs is currently predicting. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Try not to worry, Amanda...Just do all the things I didn't do in 1987: keep all your windows shut and roll-up under a duvet. You'll be all right.:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...