South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[amanda2012]

Please tell me this is gonna change 

[greenhithe]

could do, all other windstorms have, what you have to renember that the 87 storm was a once in lifetime event it will probably never be repeated. so dont worry to much as you are inland the windspeeds are going be considerably less. most the high speeds are out at sea and on the coasts.

[Rain123]

13 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Please tell me this is gonna change 

Don't worry Amanda, it'll be fine! When I was a child, I was extremely scared of Thunderstorms and now I love them! That was because I realized that there was nothing to be scared about. Perhaps if you think about what WON'T happen instead of what COULD happen, you won't fear windstorms any more! 

Just a bit of advice, it might work, or it might be a load of rubbish!

[Ben Lewis]

Try not to worry Amanda. Yes it might be very windy next week but unless their are significant upgrades on future model runs you can forget about another 87 type event. 

To the average Joe next week will just seem very very windy so try and take that view on things. Unless you live under a tree/ use public transport or very exposed to wind damage in your location then there is no need to worry. 

With any luck the strongest of gusts will hopefully hit the channel and northern France. 

Unfortunately I am unable to share excitement of a 70mph possible wind gust for next week along with other members. Windy weather does nothing for me and quite honestly goes unnoticed to a rather "bit windy out there ay" discussion with my work colleagues... And the day goes on as normal!

Its only when you come into netweather would it have you think a hurricane is underway - so maybe Amanda it might be better to avoid this forum. Lol 

Net-weather is a Fantastic place to learn from all.. But remember it is also famous for OTT predictions from members. 

Stick with the Met-Office for correct forecasts and warnings, even when there have been wind warnings for my area, everyone was safe and nothing happened - don't worry. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Daniel*]

No OTT predictions Ben I'm just portraying in words what the models show the risk is there. 

[Ben Lewis]

25 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No OTT predictions Ben I'm just portraying in words what the models show the risk is there. 

Hi Daniel,

Certainly I was not aiming at you or anyone in particular, just generalising overall to calm Amanda's worries. 

Unless the Met office & BBC TV forecasts give a risk to life wind warning than I see no need for her to worry. Like I said, wind storms a lot of the time do go on a fair downbeat tone to your non weather enthusiast - just a windy day, therefore she should go with that thinking. 

Besides, with any luck wind speeds inland will be just that. A more than average windy day. 

[Steve C]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Hi Daniel,

Certainly I was not aiming at you or anyone in particular, just generalising overall to calm Amanda's worries. 

Unless the Met office & BBC TV forecasts give a risk to life wind warning than I see no need for her to worry. Like I said, wind storms a lot of the time do go on a fair downbeat tone to your non weather enthusiast - just a windy day, therefore she should go with that thinking. 

Besides, with any luck wind speeds inland will be just that. A more than average windy day. 

I think your tack is wrong. If this came off, it'd be a lot worse than a more than average windy day, with storm force winds over the far south east (possibly including London) and hurricane force over the nearby sea areas.

In my opinion the thought should be that this chart is still 7 days off, so unlikely to verify. Like you've said though, the Met Office will be on the case if it's still indicated in 2 or 3 days time.

[tinybill]

Some  thing  to watch ,I have a look at the gfs in the morning  last time I looked it was a  lot more south ,can't look at  tonight's as  I am on me tablet  downstairs!,,

[Daniel*]

Indeed Steve very severe if that came to fruition affecting densely populated areas our infrastructure could not handle that.

A 'weather bomb'. Deepening as it crosses the country. 100mph + gusts out to sea.

 

[amanda2012]

This is awful 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

This is awful 

Hi Amanda,

It is mostly speculation at this stage - we'll keep you updated.

A wet miserable end to the first day of 2016 after a nippy start to 2016.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Daniel*

[ReindeerMarmalade]

16 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

This is awful 

This might sound like a silly question but is there anything in particular about storms that concerns you? Any preparedness steps you can take? Or is it a general fear? Forewarned is forearmed so being able to watch things develop (or downgrade) on here might help?

[Steve C]

...And, it's disappeared from the overnight run (or should I say it's tracked in a far more traditional zone, way up to the north-west) Definitely a turbulent spell coming up, but just run of the mill winter stuff from the latest GFS for us. 

Absolutely no need to fret too much, unless something is showing within a very few days, in this volatile weather period.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Steve C

[tinybill]

31 minutes ago, Steve C said:

...And, it's disappeared from the overnight run (or should I say it's tracked in a far more traditional zone, way up to the north-west) Definitely a turbulent spell coming up, but just run of the mill winter stuff from the latest GFS for us. 

Absolutely no need to fret too much, unless something is showing within a very few days, in this volatile weather period.

its  there  but its about 975  not  to bad  this  morning

[tinybill]

its there   wait and see!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Yesterday went quickly downhill and another grey day today by the looks of it.

[lassie23]

Another horrible morningwith horrible rain horrible wind horrible temps in what is a horrible winter Still got washing up from New Year's eve to do better do it before mould starts growing in the sink

[Ben Lewis]

9 hours ago, Steve C said:

I think your tack is wrong. If this came off, it'd be a lot worse than a more than average windy day, with storm force winds over the far south east (possibly including London) and hurricane force over the nearby sea areas.

In my opinion the thought should be that this chart is still 7 days off, so unlikely to verify. Like you've said though, the Met Office will be on the case if it's still indicated in 2 or 3 days time.

I don't think my tack is wrong at all. It's 7 days away. So no need for Amanda to worry to much. 

 Just as I thought, the extremities of that chart have vanished on the overnight runs. 

 

[Steve C]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

I don't think my tack is wrong at all. It's 7 days away. So no need for Amanda to worry to much. 

 Just as I thought, the extremities of that chart have vanished on the overnight runs. 

 

I disagree. If Amanda was to look on another forum here, such as Atlantic storms (I've not looked personally) someone would have said something like the chart yesterday evening showed a 1987 / 1990 type storm (which it certainly did). You've said 'just a windy day' which a non weather enthusiast wouldn't notice.

Let's face it, the chance of a powerful windstorm over the next 10 to 14 days, somewhere over Britain, is quite high - the synoptics are ripe for it. If it happens, and I hope it doesn't for anyone, from an IMBY perspective I'd rather it was over northern Scotland, more used to dealing with such occurrences.

But there's nothing really scary for us in this morning's main models.

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Steve C said:

I disagree. If Amanda was to look on another forum here, such as Atlantic storms (I've not looked personally) someone would have said something like the chart yesterday evening showed a 1987 / 1990 type storm (which it certainly did). You've said 'just a windy day' which a non weather enthusiast wouldn't notice.

Let's face it, the chance of a powerful windstorm over the next 10 to 14 days, somewhere over Britain, is quite high - the synoptics are ripe for it. If it happens, and I hope it doesn't for anyone, from an IMBY perspective I'd rather it was over northern Scotland, more used to dealing with such occurrences.

But there's nothing really scary for us in this morning's main models.

I guess I just knew that the extreme chart of yesterday that others on the Atlantic storm forum were quoting would be gone by today anyway. And it has, of course it could come back but like you say a wind (storm) of some sort over the UK will probably happen next week, the SE looking like the less windy place right now thank god. 

It doesn't help that wind speeds need to be above 75/80mph before my friends/colleagues/family bat an eyelid, so where I can from it is indeed, just another very windy day. 

Thats what I was trying to explain to Amanda. 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The storm on the 06z out in fi for the 10th is on par with something the south have never experienced 7th has now gone loads of chopping and changing to come

 

Edit: I don't mean wind speeds but the area it covers

Edited January 2, 2016 by Surrey

[Captain Shortwave]

We should probably only take a potential storm seriously if it appears within 5 days on the models. Some models (especially the GFS) have a habit over over-blowing areas of low pressure in the mid to long term range. That said there remains a risk of stormy conditions as low heights dominate to our north with the jet much further south compared to December.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Another soggy day here - pelting it down and the garden is doing a passable impression of an estuary.

[amanda2012]

@Ben Lewis thank you and everyone else for trying to convey my fears basically I'm scared these storms are going to kill me. I've been trying very hard this year to harden up but now it's taken over just has it has done many years 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

16 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

@Ben Lewis thank you and everyone else for trying to convey my fears basically I'm scared these storms are going to kill me. I've been trying very hard this year to harden up but now it's taken over just has it has done many years 

It's horrible when something like this causes so much concern (particularly in the UK!), but I think there are essentially only three ways you can try to handle it. You may well have tried all of these already, in which case ignore

You can try to look at things in terms of probability. The majority of storms in the UK don't pose a danger to life, and if you look at incidence of trauma or fatalities many (I'd say most but don't have the stats to hand) are unfortunately caused by recklessness - people who sleep in caravans surrounded by trees when a bad storm is forecast or who try to deal with loose branches during a storm or (in the case of flooding) people who use cycle along flooded canal towpaths when they can't see the edge. Occasionally there will be a freak, unforeseeable incident and these are incredibly tragic, but please do bear in mind that the probabilities are very low. 

A good thing about forecasting and improvements in meteorology is that we usually know in advance when something is going to be bad, or even life-threatening, so maybe you can take measures to make yourself feel more secure. Maybe work from home and not drive when a bad storm is due. Obviously this might not be practical, and even less so if it's all storms that concern you.

And if it's a particularly deep-seated fear, maybe consider some sort of phobia therapy if you haven't already. You won't be alone in your concerns, and I'd say even the most avid weather enthusiast on here doesn't want to see storms that pose a risk to life. I hope being on here offers some sort of comfort, even if only to have advanced warning of potential storms